2024 Wells Fargo Championship Odds: Golf Betting Preview & Breakdown

by Joe Cistaro (joeycis) Last Updated 2024-05-07 14:28:51

This week, Joe Cistaro breaks down PGA golf betting tips for the Wells Fargo Championship. You can use the PrizePicks referral code GRINDERS to claim a $100 deposit bonus today!

Last season, Scottie Scheffler missed the Wells Fargo Championship and gave way to Wyndham Clark. Clark began his ascent this calendar year with his first win on the PGA TOUR at Quail Hollow. Scheffler will pass again ahead of the PGA Championship to spend time at home before the second major of the golf season. The door is open.

Who will step through the door and claim the next signature event on the PGA TOUR? With a great field and plenty of money on the line, will Rory McIlroy secure his fourth championship at this event? Let’s take a look at betting odds and the course for the 2024 Wells Fargo Championship.

Wells Fargo Championship Betting Odds at DraftKings Sportsbook

At the time of this writing – May 6th – you can find these odds at DraftKings Sportsbook. The below list features all golfers priced at 50/1 or better.

Here are the recent winners of the Wells Fargo Championship:

• 2023 – Wyndham Clark (-19)
• 2022 – Max Homa (-8) (TPC Potomac)
• 2021 – Rory McIlroy (-10)
• 2019 – Max Homa (-15)
• 2018 – Jason Day (-12)
• 2017 – Brian Harman (-10) (Eagle Point Golf Club)
• 2016 – James Hahn (-9)
• 2015 – Rory McIlroy (-21)

The field is set at 69 players with no cut for the Wells Fargo Championship. The usual suspects will be present except Scottie Scheffler, who is still navigating his first go at father duties. Wyndham Clark will defend his championship but sits behind course-horse Rory McIlroy and last year’s runner-up, Xander Schauffele, on the odds board.

Rory possesses the best history at this event, with multiple wins and a bevy of additional top finishes. Last season, he didn’t quite have it at this event and has been struggling with form of late. That said, Rory knows every contour of this course and must be considered a strong option in any type of gaming format — betting, DFS, or one-and-done. As the schedule shrinks and shrinks, if Rory is still available in your stable for OAD, he would make plenty of sense without Scheffler in the field.

Rory is the only player in the field with five consecutive made cuts at this event. Max Homa has three top-10 finishes over the last four years, with two victories. Even with a missed cut, his history at this event is worth a look.

Ludvig Aberg withdrew from the event on Monday citing a knee issue. We will have to wait and see if this is a serious injury ahead of the PGA Championship or if the young star is getting rest before a very big event.

2024 Wells Fargo Championship Betting Preview

• Course: Quail Hollow
• Date: May 9 – 12
• Par: 71
• Yardage: 7,538
• Greens: Bermuda overseeded with Poa

A challenging test for players, Quail Hollow is lined with trees, possesses numerous water hazards, and has a variety of well-placed bunkers that will test the precision of a player’s approach game. The bulk of the players inside of the top 20 of last year’s event finished in the top of the SG: T2G rankings.

On Sunday, hole #17 will determine the fate of many golfers in contention. The most noteworthy hole on the course, the par 3 is guarded by a large pond and bunkers on both sides. The average distance for all of the par 3s is around 200 yards.

SG: P4 450-500 yards will be a key stat this week, as eight of the par 4s are north of 450 yards. Four of the most difficult holes on the course fall in this category. Viktor Hovland, Rory McIlroy, Hideki Matsuyama, and Akshay Bhatia lead this category over their last 24 rounds. On the contrary, #14 is very short (344 yards), with an eagle rate at 1.1% and a birdie rate at 45%. This could be driveable throughout the week depending on pin position and wind direction.

The par 5s will be must-have scoring opportunities. #7 can be reached in two shots and has a 3.6% eagle rate. #15 has a whopping 46% birdie rate. Players that make par, or worse, on that hole will be whistling to themselves as they walk off the green.

Normally, SG: Approach is king. This continues to be true, but the disparity between the importance of SG: OTT and Approach is not that great at Quail Hollow. Golfers will need to be precise off the tee to avoid thick rough and bunkers in hopes of holding narrow fairways. Rory McIlroy, Hideki Matsuyama, Viktor Hovland, Chris Kirk, and Stephan Jaeger lead the field in this category ahead of the event.

Long-iron play will be pretty important, especially for players who cannot bomb it off the tee. Proximity from 200+ yards is one of the most important ranges on this course over the years. Xander Schauffele leads the field in this category. Ludvig Aberg, who withdrew, ranked in the top 5 of every category mentioned over the last few paragraphs.

Do not sleep on putting at this course. Top-10 finishers here average more than a full stroke gained putting per round. Returning champion, Wyndham Clark, leads the field in putting over his last 24 rounds. He is followed by Peter Malnati, Sahith Theegala, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, and Denny McCarthy.

For us, we will focus on SG: OTT, SG: Approach, Proximity 200+ yards, P4: 450-500 yards, Par-5 scoring, and SG: Putting as our main categories for modeling. Let’s take a look at a few golfers to consider for outright bets, matchups, and one-and-done this week.

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Golfers To Watch This Week

Unless mentioned otherwise, all Strokes Gained statistics will be referenced over the player’s previous 24 rounds on the PGA TOUR.

Rory McIlroy +650

Without Scheffler, Rory cannot be overlooked at Quail Hollow. He brings an impeccable résumé along with his profile that fits this course so well. While putting and around-the-green play remain a concern, Rory just profiles so well at Quail Hollow.

The number is so short because betting sites do not want to get burned by the superstar. That said, even if we don’t want to pay the heavy price on an outright wager, we can get exposure through matchups, DFS lineups, and of course, one-and-done pools. My normal betting approach is to completely disregard the top of the board unless I can find futures through promotional betting. That said, I am going to find it rather difficult to avoid using Rory as this week’s one-and-done selection.

If you are ahead in your pool, or at least in the mix, Rory makes so much sense. The prize pool is huge, and I don’t think Rory is a given at any major throughout the rest of 2024.

Sahith Theegala +2800

Now, back to betting. Theegala is already on our PGA Championship betting card and could potentially find his way on this week’s card if we could find a nice price. The budding superstar continues to flash incredible form, most recently finishing 2nd to Scheffler at the RBC Heritage.

Theegala is 8th off the tee, 3rd in putting, and 14th in SG: Par 5. He struggles some in our key Par-4 range but continues to grow into a better player with each passing PGA TOUR start. His time is coming. He makes plenty of sense in all formats this week.

Akshay Bhatia +4000

Checking in next, we give Bhatia a long look, as he rates out so well in all of our key categories. Bhatia comes in with a very similar profile to Theegala except with better approach play and far better work on par 4s in our key range. At a far better price, Bhatia seems like a strong pivot off of Theegala.

Bhatia held off a surging Denny McCarthy at the Valero and followed up with a very respectable showing at his first Masters. He then secured a T20 finish at the RBC Heritage. Bhatia possesses the potential and demeanor to be a force on the PGA TOUR for years to come. A run at a signature event would help solidify his status an emerging superstar.

Kurt Kitayama +6000

Finally, we descend down the board to find Kitayama at 60-1 on DraftKings Sportsbook. Normally, the signature events tend to be top-of-the-board propositions when it comes to betting. That said, without Scheffler and Aberg, I think we might be able to look for some value in longer shots.

Kitayama has been playing well of late without any high finishes. Don’t let his recent run of near T30 finishes fool you; he can get the job done at big events. Winning the API in 2023 and finishing 4th at the PGA Championship, Kitayama knows how to navigate a tough field. He ranks inside the top 15 in SG: OTT and Proximity 200+ yards.

He isn’t a consideration for one-and-done play but makes sense as a DFS value and outright bet at the bottom of your card.

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