2023 WM Phoenix Open Odds: Golf Betting Preview & Breakdown

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This week, Joe Cistaro breaks down golf betting tips for the 2023 Waste Management Phoenix Open. Use the PrizePicks referral code GRINDERS to claim a $100 deposit bonus on golf props today!

Here we go… While AT&T Pebble Beach comes to a close on Monday morning in California, sports betting sites are revving up for one of the first big golf tournaments of the year. In the second elevated event on the schedule, the WM Phoenix Open features a purse of $20,000,000. The money will attract the best players in the world and so, so, so many fans. With an attendance once reaching over 200,000, the Phoenix Open has quickly become one of the premier events of the PGA Tour Schedule. Let’s check the updated odds at DraftKings Sportsbook before checking in on the field and course.

Waste Management Phoenix Open at DraftKings Sportsbook

At the time of this writing – February 5th – you can find these odds at DraftKings Sportsbook. The below list features all golfers priced at 50/1 or better. These odds are very likely to change after the conclusion to Pebble Beach on Monday.

Golfer Odds (2/5)
Jon Rahm +650
Rory McIlroy +800
Xander Schauffele +1100
Scottie Scheffler +1100
Max Homa +1600
Justin Thomas +2000
Patrick Cantlay +1800
Matt Fitzpatrick +2200
Tony Finau +2500
Collin Morikawa +2500
Hideki Matsuyama +2800
Tom Kim +2800
Viktor Hovland +3000
Jordan Spieth +3500
Sungjae Im +3500
Cameron Young +3500
Jason Day +4000
Taylor Montgomery +5000
Sahith Theegala +5000

Here are the recent winners of the WM Phoenix Open:

136 players will tee it up on Thursday with the top 65 and ties making the weekend cut. 18 of the top 20 players in the world will play in the event with only Will Zalatoris and Cam Smith (LIV) not playing in the event. Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm headline the field. While never winning, Rahm has been on a tear and is an Arizona State alum. Rory has one start at the WM Phoenix Open in 2021 — finishing 13th.

Scottie Scheffler is back to defend his breakthrough win. Last year, Scheffler beat Patrick Cantlay in a playoff to kick off his ridiculous run on his way to his first green jacket. Five of the last seven iterations of this event have ended in a playoff. Scoring will be plentiful with several birdie and eagle opportunities scattered around the course.

Hideki Matsuyama won back-to-back titles in playoffs years ago but disappointed as a very popular selection last season. While he made the cut, bettors and DFS players were not thrilled about his 42nd place finish. That said, nobody can ignore his run from 2014-2017 when he won twice and placed second and fourth. After a 9th place finish at Farmer’s, look for Hideki to potentially rebound this week.

There are so many top players to consider this week with so much money at stake. Let’s preview the course before highlighting a few betting golfers to watch.

2023 WM Phoenix Open Betting Preview

Like some other tournaments throughout the PGA Tour season, TPC Scottsdale is known for a single hole. The Par 3 16th hole is becoming iconic as a packed stadium party cheers — and boos — the tee shots of everyone in the field. Last season, in an unforgettable moment, Sam Ryder set the crowd ablaze with an ace on the 16th that was replayed about 5,322 times throughout the rest of the tournament coverage. The crowd was ignited and the hole needed to be delayed just to clean up the mess.

TPC Scottsdale will allow for plenty of scoring with recent winners normally finishing -15 or better at the event. Guarded by sand, waste areas, and a sprinkle of water, the course will not pose a great test for the strength of this field. With weather rarely a concern, players will play a relatively flat layout and take aim at greens.

While the stadium hole is the most known, all of the scoring will occur on the Par 5’s and drivable Par 4 17th hole. All three Par 5’s feature a birdie rate at 40% with eagle rates near 2%. The 17th hole will compel players to pull driver and hope for the green. The hole features a 40% birdie rate with very little risk despite water short and left of the green. Dropping there still leaves players an opportunity to get up and down for par.

The remainder of the Par 4’s are all between the 400-500 range leaving 150-175 a key proximity range this week. We will emphasize SG: OTT for the first time this season while still focusing on SG: Approach. While the top ten had a great week with their irons last season, Scottie Scheffler won the event while losing strokes on approach.

Putting will be far easier for players this week as the greens are lightning fast. Per Mayo Media Network, in 2021, 89% of putts from within 10 feet fell. The greens should mitigate the importance of great putting which means we will downplay the importance of the putter when we build a model.

With the course and statistics under consideration, let’s take a peek at a few golfers to watch for this week’s event with their odds at the time of this writing on DraftKings Sportsbook.

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Golfers To Watch This Week

Unless mentioned otherwise, all strokes gained statistics will be referenced over the player’s previous 36 rounds on the PGA Tour.

Viktor Hovland +3000

As I type these words, the final round of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am is about to commence with Viktor Hovland in contention. At the moment, Hovland’s 30/1 price has already shortened and will likely shorten more after Pebble Beach concludes — win or lose. Vik has two missed cuts at Phoenix but seems to be a good fit for an event that requires precise ball-striking.

His recent form has been strong and might be considered stronger by the time you finish reading this article. Regardless, I cannot imagine wagering a massive sum at the top of the board with such class available just above 20/1. Hovland is one of the first names that jumped off the board with several others likely to click Tom Kim and Hideki Matsuyama — for good reason. If you are interested, throw this bet in before his odds shorten. I expect his odds at other sites to be far shorter when those odds are released.

Sungjae Im +3500

Speaking of ball-striking machines in good form, Sungjae Im feels like a bargain at 35/1. Of course, we are treated to this pricing because of field strength, but Im cannot be ignored at an event that will become a tee-to-green contest.

While Im didn’t play last year, he has three made cuts at TPC Scottsdale the previous years. Im sits in the top ten in eagles and Par 5: 550-600 yards and should have no issue scoring. One of his perpetual concerns, around-the-green play, should be a lesser concern at TPC Scottsdale if his ball-striking is dialed in. I much prefer stacking my card with two players in this range of this quality than one horse above.

Sahith Theegala +5000

Sahith Theegala made a run in Phoenix last season, finishing third after having a legitimate chance at his first career victory. Theegala is in good form, finishing 4th last week at the Farmer’s.

Theegala is almost a mixed bag of golf at every tournament. His consistency lies in his inconsistency with his strokes gained numbers all over the place. Some tournaments his putter is white hot while others he dials in his irons. In recent events, he cost far more. At 50/1, we can maybe pay a small price to include him on our card and hope he puts it all together again. Admittedly, the field is a class above but Sahith never seems intimidated on the golf course. He is bound to break out this season and no better place than a course he almost conquered last season.

Kurt Kitayama +15000

In contention at the moment at Pebble Beach, this number will surely be far shorter when odds are released across the sports betting industry. If you want to include a longshot, no better than Kitayama at a massive number coming off of what will be a good-form week.

Kurt has not teed it up in Phoenix yet but the course mitigates his one consistent weakness, the putter. At 150/1, we can do far worse if adding a bomb to our card. If you want a piece of this one, though, bet it as soon as possible because this number will disappear when the winner hoists the trophy in California on Monday afternoon.

Follow me on Twitter at @JoeCistaro to follow along with any additions, matchups, or top finishers I add to my outright betting card. Good luck with all of your wagers this week and thanks for reading.

Image Credit: Getty Images

About the Author

joeycis
Joe Cistaro (joeycis)

A high school mathematics teacher from New Jersey, Joe Cistaro (aka joeycis) is a lifelong fantasy sports fan. As a member of the RotoGrinders community, Joe cut his teeth writing for the website through the blogging program. Previously engaging the community with articles such as Home Run Derby and Finding Paydirt, Joe now focuses his time on sports betting content for both the NFL and the PGA TOUR. Follow Joe on Twitter – @ JoeCistaro