raXFL Week 1 Betting Picks for Saturday
The Super Bowl is over, indeed, but there’s still football to feed our sports betting appetites. XFL Week 1 kicks off tomorrow, giving us four games to bet throughout the weekend. Here’s a look at XFL Week 1 storylines, spreads and matchups for Saturday.
RotoGrinders is excited to cover the XFL as part of our Core Premium Product – we’ll have projections/LineupHQ, articles, media, and more!
XFL Week 1 — What to Expect
Look, let’s not pretend we know what the hell is going to happen in the XFL this weekend. While there are plenty of former NFL players on XFL rosters, there aren’t really any big names. They didn’t try signing notorious NFL busts like Johnny Manziel. Yes, there are some familiar names such as Christine Michael, Eli Rogers, Cardale Jones and Cameron Artis-Payne, but the bulk of XFL lineups are made up of guys even the biggest of football fans have never heard of. Here’s where sportsbooks put XFL futures odds heading into Week 1:
Futures betting — 2020 XFL Championship Betting Odds
All odds are courtesty of FanDuel Sportsbook and accurate as of February 7th, 2020.
- Dallas Renegades +400
- New York Guardians +400
- Tampa Bay Vipers +430
- DC Defenders +500
- Los Angeles Wildcats +650
- Houston Roughnecks +850
- St. Louis BattleHawks +1000
- Seattle Dragons +1200
You’ll want to read RotoGrinders XFL DFS season preview for all eight teams if you haven’t already.
How to Approach XFL Point Totals
As Friday afternoon, most US sportsbooks have only posted XFL point spreads, shying away from point totals for the games — at least thus far. Part of the reason might be due to the lesson learned during the early stages of the AAF season. Three of the first four AAF games went Under in Week 1, with offenses playing much slower and sloppier than expected.
While the majority of online sports betting sites could very well be playing it safe in Week 1 by waiting for Week 2 before letting players bet Over/Under, Circa Sportsbook in Las Vegas opened XFL point totals at 44 for each Week 1 game.
There are a few reasons why not to expect things to play out as they did in the AAF. For one, the coach-to-player communication will be much better on offense than it was in the AAF. In fact, all 15 players on offense will have helmet speakers and direct communication with their coaches. Additionally, there are a variety of rule changes that incentivize more returns on special teams, more fourth-down attempts, and as a result, shorter average drive distances. This will undoubtedly help increase scoring among teams. The coaching pedigree in the XFL is also better than what was in AAF.
That doesn’t mean you should blindly bet Over on the totals if/when they’re available. As I said earlier, I won’t pretend I know how things are going to play out. Even if totals are posted more legal US sportsbooks, I’ll proceed with caution.
For more general information on XFL rules and betting, you’ll want to check out our XFL football betting guide.
Now let’s get to Saturday’s XFL Week 1 spreads.
XFL Week 1 Betting Picks for Saturday
Seattle Dragons at DC Defenders -7.5
2 p.m. ET on ABC
The XFL kicks off with the Seattle Dragons taking on the DC Defenders in the nation’s capital. Former NCAA national champion Cardale Jones will lead the Defenders behind center, but he’ll be without starting wide receiver DeAndre Thompkins. Instead, he’ll be throwing to Malachi Dupre and 30-year-old Rashad Ross.
Along with having possibly the league’s best quarterback in Jones, the Defenders also have one of the top running backs in Jhurell Pressley. Pressley had his fair share of success in the AFF, leading the league with 431 rushing yards on 96 carries. Pressley is backed up by the NCAA’s all-time leading rusher, Donnel Pumphrey.
Because of Jones and Pressley, I’m riding with the Defenders -7.5.
XFL Betting Picks: Defenders -7.5
LA Wildcats at Houston Roughnecks -6
5 p.m. ET on Fox
This game was a lot more interesting before the L.A. Wildcats ruled out Josh Johnson. Somewhat surprisingly, it’s Jalan McClendon who gets the nod at quarterback over Chad Kanoff.
The Wildcats will try to keep up with the Houston Roughnecks, who will operate out of June Jones’ “run-and-shoot” offensive scheme. Jones has had success on both the collegiate and CFL levels, and he’ll be more than comfortable leading the Roughnecks in this environment.
With McClendon behind center, the Wildcats will likely turn to the running game. During his time at Baylor, McClendon threw 91 passes and ran the ball 30 times. Most recently, McClendon completed only 4 of 10 passes for merely 16 yards for the Redskins in the 2019 NFL preseason. Of course, McClendon won’t be facing an NFL caliber defense, though he wasn’t really doing that in the fourth quarter of NFL preseason games either.
The one thing the Wildcats have going for them in Week 1 is defense. Their head coach, Winston Moss, is the only defensive-focused HC in the XFL. The former Green Bay Packers assistant head coach/linebackers coach has some NFL experience to work with on his XFL roster.
I think the run-and-shoot will be too much for the Wildcats to keep up with offensively, but for the reasons above, I’ll be taking the Under if the total is 45 or higher.
XFL Betting Picks: Roughnecks -6
I’ll wait to see how these games play out before betting on XFL’s Sunday games. Remember, as much uncertainty as there is in XFL Week 1 matchups, tread carefully and bet responsibly. Best of luck with your XFL betting picks!