Your Sanity Will Thank You
In New York, at the DFS Players Conference put on by RotoGrinders, I met a guy who goes by the DFS name MotownMauler. Mauler was a knowledgeable guy, and he was super hungry for more knowledge. (A side note: for those of you who think learning from other DFS players is a dumb thing to do, I should also mention that Longbottoms – who took down first place at the FanDuel NFL live final this last year, for a couple million bucks – also attended the Players Conference to learn more about DFS. CheeseIsGood – who, of course, has won a million dollars twice in DFS – sat in on one of the sessions I taught. Jonathan Bales sat in on one of my sessions as well. I sat in on the session taught by Adam Levitan and Evan Silva (in fact, some of the strategy thoughts Evan shared that day directly contributed to me taking down a $20k NFL win just a week and a half later). Just something to think about if you’re in the camp that thinks “learning from other DFS players is dumb”…)
A couple weeks ago, Mauler and I got into a discussion on Twitter regarding BvP. He thought Adam Jones against John Danks was a bad play, as Jones had gone one for 33 against Danks in his career. I thought Jones was still a strong tournament play that day. We went back and forth on this a bit, then I brashly presented the idea of the two of us playing one another in a thirty-day challenge: 30 total slates, head-to-head, and we would see who came out on top at the end.
Fast forward to now, and I am down two games to seven through our first nine slates. Yeah.
Before I go any further down the road of this story, I want to mention a few things that most of you know about me, but that some of you may not. Namely, the fact that I am very unique in my DFS approach compared to other “well-known players,” as I typically play only one lineup per slate. In fact, I typically play on only one site per day during MLB as well.
During football season, I invest a good 30 to 50 hours each week into roster construction, which typically enables me to play across multiple sites, and to sometimes even build two or three teams on each site. During MLB, however, I have only one day to put everything together. I also have my DFS writing responsibilities, my role as RotoGrinders Premium Content Director, and my time set aside for my fiction writing and reading. Oh – and there are those other things that are also part of non-work: my wife, sleep (not that I’m too familiar with this…), and sometimes even a bit of fresh air.
Because of this, I usually make it a point to not divide my thinking. I work best when I can pour a lot of time and energy into one single roster. I like to toy around with different player combinations, think through different approaches, and identify the single setup I feel will work best for me that day.
More often than not, my play in MLB leans toward tourneys. I spend a lot of time studying tournaments and tourney play, and then I work to build what I feel will be the perfect tourney team each day.
Naturally, this is not an approach that works well in head-to-heads. In fact, DraftCheat said something along these exact lines when he, JeffElJefe, and I did a show together before MLB Opening Day: “MLB is funny, because the plays you should want to use in cash games are usually the opposite of the plays you should want to use in GPPs.”
Exactly.
The first couple days of my H2H challenge against Mauler, I didn’t think much about it. I didn’t know whether he was a good player or not, and I threw my tourney team his way. Each day, I lost. I still didn’t think much about it, until he started talking up his back-to-back victories on Twitter. Apparently, he’s not only a good MLB DFS player; he’s also a good trash-talker.
The next day, I was determined to not lose again. I didn’t want someone on Twitter talking about how they kept whipping me in H2Hs. Not only is that bad for business, but heck, it’s also just plain bad for ego (hey, we all have one!).
The next day, I was still playing tourneys…but I poured all my energy into building a better H2H team so as not to continue getting embarrassed. I beat Mauler that day (barely; he’s a very good MLB DFS player – and if you don’t believe me, go ahead and give him a go on a 30-day challenge yourself!), but I fell short in tourneys. The funny thing, however, is that I actually would have been on the right plays that day in tourneys. I threw away a couple thousand dollars in tourney entries because I was so focused on making sure I beat someone in a head-to-head.
Over the next few days, I tried to build teams that could do well in tourneys while also making sure these teams were “safe enough to do well in the H2H.” Unsurprisingly, I won only one head-to-head against Mauler during that stretch while dropping four more – and I also had a poor run in tourneys.
Finally, this last Sunday, I sat down to figure out why I’d had such a poor week of DFS play. My research was the same as normal, and while I could have said, “Oh, it’s just variance,” the truth was, it wasn’t just variance. I had made some really questionable calls throughout the week. I had been “playing scared” – wanting to make sure I protected myself in my H2H while still giving myself a shot to win in tourneys. By hedging between the two, I was doing well in neither.
Now, obviously, I’m a unique case (a head case, some might say), in that I do best when I can spend a lot of time with roster construction. The more time I spend focusing on one single approach to DFS play for that day, the better I perform. I can’t just build two separate teams – a “cash game team” and a “tournament team.” I’m just not capable of doing that in MLB, in the short span of a single day. Not everyone is like me. (Lucky.) But everyone does have their own quirks – their own things that play to their strengths.
Things changed for me on Sunday. My favorite pitcher that day – regardless of price – was Justin Verlander against the Rangers (it also helped that he was, in fact, pretty cheap). I had no numbers to back this up; it was simply that I had watched all but one Verlander start this year and had watched most of the Rangers’ recent games, and I felt Verlander would be able to attack them in just the right way and put up a really nice game. Then, I thought: “If I play Verlander and lose my H2H against Mauler because of it, I’ll be so annoyed with myself.”
Another way to say that: “If I play Verlander and lose this $20 H2H, I’ll be annoyed…”
What?
I wasn’t thinking about the fact that I felt Verlander was the best play to back my $2k-plus in tournament entries that day; I was only thinking that I would be annoyed with myself if I lost that twenty dollar head-to-head.
I went for a walk that morning and let my mind wander, and I allowed myself to realize that I play best when I focus on one approach. While I had more “ego” at stake in that H2H, I had a lot more money at stake (and a lot more upside available) in tourneys. If I was going to choose to focus on tourneys that day, I needed to go all out in focusing on tourneys. I needed to spend as much time as I could building the best tournament team I could build, without worrying about what that might mean for my 30-day-challenge.
As it turned out, Mauler took Sunday off and we did not even play our H2H.
As it also turned out, I had a really nice tournament day and finished just shy of taking down another seat to the DraftKings live final.
I am writing this on Monday night, after dropping to 2-7 against Mauler. My H2H team today had only one bat from Coors Field, had Strasburg instead of Fernandez, and had Jake Peavy. That team had eight hitters who all had huge upside, and only two of those hitters had ownership higher than 10%. In short: a good tourney player would look at that team and say, “This is a really great tournament roster.” Whereas someone playing against me in a H2H might look at that team and say, “Um. What?”
And you know what? I honestly do not even care.
Okay, I care a little. It does sting each day when Mauler updates his Twitter to show that he is now 7-2 against me (soon to be 8-2? – then 9-2? – who knows…). But I care a lot more that I am providing myself with opportunities to take down huge tournament wins with great tourney lineups.
Why do I bring all this up?
Look – we’re not all the same. What I struggle with (and thrive on) in DFS is surely different from what you struggle with (and thrive on). Maybe you don’t need as much time as you can possibly find each day to toy around with roster combinations in order to build one optimal tournament lineup. Maybe you don’t need to divide your focus between “tournament days” and “cash game days.” But I bet you have something of your own. Whatever it is for you – there is something. You have strengths in DFS, but you also have weaknesses.
So my advice to you is:
1) Take the time to identify what your strengths and weaknesses are.
2) Play to your strengths!!!
This may leave you with an embarrassing 8-22 record at the end of a 30-day H2H challenge…but as long as those eight winning days are all huge tournament days, what does it really matter?
If you take the time to identify your strengths (and weaknesses!) and then make a conscious effort to focus on your strengths, you’ll benefit greatly over time. Your bankroll will thank you. And trust me – your sanity will thank you as well.