Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Is Superior? Markets, Fees & More
Kalshi and Polymarket are two of the most prominent prediction market platforms available to American traders. The main difference is that Kalshi operates under federal oversight from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), making it a fully regulated U.S. exchange for event contracts. Polymarket, meanwhile, is approved by the CFTC but is not yet live in the U.S.
Curious to explore prediction trading legally in the U.S.?
Head over to Kalshi to trade event contracts on sports, politics, and the economy, all within a federally regulated framework.
TL;DR – Kalshi vs Polymarket
- Kalshi: A U.S.-based, federally regulated prediction exchange approved by the CFTC.
- Polymarket: Approved by the CFTC but not yet live in the U.S.; operating offshore.
- Legality: Kalshi is legal for Americans; Polymarket currently restricts U.S. users as it awaits its U.S. launch under the approved regulatory framework.
- Trading Experience: Kalshi offers simpler, fiat-based trading; Polymarket caters to crypto-savvy users.
- Markets: Both platforms host election contracts, policy questions, and cultural predictions.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Bonus Offers
| 🔮 Platform –> | Kalshi | Polymarket |
| ⭐ Promo Code | TBD | |
| 💰 Welcome Bonus | TBD | |
| 📖 Terms & Conditions | TBD | |
| 🌎 Legal States | AL, AK, AR, CA, CO, CT, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, ME, MA, MN, MS, MO, NE, NH, NM, NY, NC, NV, ND, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VT, VA, WA, WV, WI, WY, DC | Not available in the U.S. yet |
| 📱 Mobile App | Apple iOS & Android Users | Apple iOS & Android Users |
The promo info above was last verified by RotoGrinders as of December 12, 2025.
Kalshi vs. Polymarket: What’s the Difference?
Both Kalshi and Polymarket let users express opinions on real-world events by buying and selling event contracts, essentially turning predictions into tradable financial assets. But their models, regulations, and user bases differ sharply.
Kalshi was founded in 2018 by former MIT graduates aiming to bring Wall Street-level discipline to prediction markets. The company underwent extensive regulatory approval from the CFTC before launching publicly in 2021. Since then, Kalshi has grown rapidly, earning funding rounds from investors aligned with traditional finance.
Polymarket, on the other hand, launched around the same time but took a different route. It built a decentralized exchange (DEX) powered by smart contracts on the blockchain. Instead of traditional oversight, it relies on open-source protocols and crypto collateral. This has given Polymarket tremendous global traction, but also raised legal challenges in the U.S.
In short:
- Kalshi = Federally Regulated, Fiat-Based, U.S. Legal.
- Polymarket = Decentralized, Crypto-Based, International, Coming to US Soon Thanks to CFTC Approval
Understanding Prediction Markets
Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket have risen dramatically in popularity as new technology and regulation have made them more accessible to everyday users. These platforms aggregate collective opinion on the likelihood of future events, whether that’s the outcome of a presidential election or next quarter’s stock market prices.
One of the main draws of exchanges such as Polymarket and Kalshi? They serve as an alternative to legal sports betting, as they’re regulated by federal oversight rather than state gambling laws. They still face legal challenges, but for now, they’re a great way for uses in non-sports betting states like California and Texas to get in on moneylines, spreads, totals, futures, and even player props.
The Role of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)
Kalshi’s defining feature is its CFTC regulation. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission oversees all of Kalshi’s event contracts, ensuring each market adheres to strict U.S. laws designed to prevent market manipulation and fraud. This level of oversight makes Kalshi a rare example of a prediction market that’s both accessible and federally compliant.
Kalshi’s contracts resemble futures but settle based on binary outcomes: “yes” or “no.” That simplicity makes them appealing to traders familiar with finance and newcomers alike.
Polymarket’s History With the CFTC
Polymarket previously ran its decentralized model in the U.S., only for the CFTC to hit them with a $1.4 million fine in January 2022 and force them to exit the American market.
The operator turned its sights on international audiences but is making a return to the U.S. thanks to new CFTC approval. The app hasn’t officially launched yet but is available for exclusive early access. Just go to the app and sign up with your phone number.
See how Kalshi and Polymarket rank among the best US prediction market apps.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: History and Legality
Both platforms rose in popularity during the past presidential election cycle, especially as interest in election contracts and political prediction markets surged.
Kalshi’s Regulatory Approach
Kalshi spent years securing regulatory approval from the CFTC to operate legally in the United States. Every market it lists must be reviewed and cleared, a slow but deliberate process that builds credibility with regulators and users alike.
Because Kalshi operates under U.S. financial laws, it provides a clear path for Americans to trade on everything from inflation rates to election outcomes, with no crypto wallet or VPN required.
This structure appeals to both institutional and retail users seeking consistent liquidity and transparency.
Polymarket’s Decentralized Model
Polymarket’s independence is part of its charm. Its innovative contract system allows rapid market creation and deep liquidity through tokenized trading. However, because it’s unregulated, American traders can’t currently legally participate without breaking CFTC rules.
That hasn’t stopped global users from embracing Polymarket for everything from Donald Trump election odds to pop culture events. Its flexibility makes it a faster-moving ecosystem than Kalshi, but one that still operates in the gray zone of the regulatory environment.
Recently, Polymarket is looking to re-enter the U.S. market after a settlement with the CFTC and acquiring a U.S.-regulated exchange.
Stay tuned for more updates from RotoGrinders.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Pros and Cons
Each platform has clear strengths and potential drawbacks, depending on what kind of trader you are.
| Platform | Pros | Cons |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | ✅ Fully legal for U.S. users ✅ Overseen by CFTC ✅ Uses U.S. dollars ✅ Transparent event vetting | ❌ Fewer markets than Polymarket |
| Polymarket | ✅ Huge variety of topics ✅ Fast market creation ✅ Deep liquidity in crypto ✅ Appealing to DeFi users | ❌ Not accessible to U.S. traders yet ❌ Exposure to crypto volatility |
If you’re looking for a compliant and reliable exchange, Kalshi is the winner. But if you’re trading from outside the U.S. and are comfortable with crypto, Polymarket might offer broader opportunities for now.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Markets and Trading Options
Both platforms offer a variety of prediction markets, but their overarching systems are significantly different.
Popular Kalshi Markets
Kalshi specializes in institutional-style event contracts tied to measurable data. Popular categories include:
- Economic data: Inflation rates, GDP growth, unemployment numbers.
- Politics: Congressional control, election outcomes, and electoral process questions.
- Weather and climate: Number of named storms, average summer temperatures.
- Sports event contracts: Broader questions like “Will a California team win the NBA Finals?”
Kalshi’s goal is to make prediction markets as mainstream as trading oil futures, and with Wall Street investors backing it, they’re getting close.
Popular Polymarket Markets
Polymarket’s flexibility allows for fast-moving, buzz-driven questions. These often include:
- Politics: Especially around the Trump family, Donald Trump Jr., and election campaigns.
- Pop culture: Celebrity news, tech trends, or social controversies.
- Crypto and AI: Market movements or significant tech developments.
In 2024, Polymarket’s election markets captured widespread interest, with Donald Trump and Donald Trump Jr. becoming key players in trading market conversations.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: User Interface and Experience
Below is a comparison of each app experience.
Kalshi User Interface
Kalshi’s app and web platform are user-friendly, making navigation easy. Prices reflect probabilities with clear, regulator-approved terms. Users can enjoy seamless deposits and withdrawals with standard U.S. banking methods. It combines a brokerage dashboard with the excitement of a sports ticker for an intuitive experience. Dive in and explore the possibilities!
Polymarket User Interface
Polymarket boasts an intuitive, speedy interface built on Web3, seamlessly linking to your crypto wallet. Markets are organized by topic with real-time share prices from decentralized liquidity pools.
Polymarket’s interface reflects its Web3 roots. It is sleek and fast, but requires connecting a crypto wallet to trade. Markets are organized by topic, and share prices update in real time using decentralized liquidity pools.
The layout is appealing for crypto enthusiasts, though it can feel intimidating for new users unfamiliar with DeFi platforms.
Trading Fees and Market Depth
Kalshi charges small transaction fees, similar to futures exchanges. Because its event contracts are standardized, fees are predictable, and liquidity is consistent for both retail and institutional users.
Polymarket’s trading fees remain to be seen in the U.S., though expect a 0.01% trader fee, which is relatively low compared to Kalshi.
Hottest Prediction Market on Kalshi and Polymarket
Each month, both platforms showcase their most active prediction topics. Here are a few examples from recent cycles:
- Kalshi: “What will the price of GTA 6 be on PS5?
- Polymarket: “Will AI replace over 10% of U.S. jobs by 2030?”
While both deal with high-interest events, Kalshi’s listings come with formal vetting and approved election contracts, while Polymarket’s remain freer and more speculative.
Which Prediction Market Platform Fits You?
If you’re a U.S.-based user seeking a compliant, stable experience, Kalshi is your best bet (or rather, trade). It’s designed for users who value transparency, legal clarity, and accurate data in a CFTC-regulated environment.
If you’re outside the U.S., technically savvy, and comfortable with crypto, Polymarket offers unmatched speed and variety. Its decentralized nature enables rapid market creation, even for niche events.
For American traders, though, Kalshi’s legitimacy gives it the clear edge in accessibility and peace of mind.
Kalshi vs Polymarket FAQs
Below are some frequently asked questions pertaining to Kalshi, Polymarket and Kalshi vs. Polymarket, including their similarities and differences.
What are prediction markets?
Prediction markets allow users to trade contracts based on the outcomes of real-world events. Prices reflect the collective probability of those outcomes happening.
Is Kalshi legal in the United States?
Yes. Kalshi is the only federally regulated platform offering event contracts under CFTC oversight.
Can U.S. users access Polymarket?
Not yet. Due to CFTC enforcement actions, Polymarket is unavailable to U.S. residents, though international users can still trade through decentralized wallets.
What are election contracts?
These are markets tied to election results or electoral processes. Kalshi offers them only after specific CFTC approval, while Polymarket lists them more freely.
How does Polymarket use blockchain?
Polymarket relies on Ethereum-based smart contracts to record trades transparently and automate settlement.
Is there a risk of market manipulation?
Both platforms use mechanisms to limit it. Kalshi’s oversight minimizes manipulation through regulation; Polymarket relies on transparency and liquidity to deter abuse.
Are prediction markets replacing traditional betting platforms?
They’re not replacing them, but they’re expanding the ways people interact with information. For users who enjoy strategy and data, prediction markets feel like the next evolution of speculation.
Check out RotoGrinders reviews of other prediction markets like Polymarket & Kalshi: