BvP, Hot Hitters, and Me

Batter versus Pitcher (BvP). It’s one of the most divisive topics in MLB DFS.

“Hot hitters.” It’s another one of the most divisive topics in MLB DFS.

Because each of these is a divisive topic, there is no way that my personal take on either is the “definitive take.” What I can provide for you, however, is what I have found to work for me in balancing each of these areas of MLB DFS. Hey, it might not be the “definitive take” on either, but I bet it’s a lot closer to whatever is the “definitive take” than most people have found.

Batter Versus Pitcher

On the one hand, you have guys who swear by BvP. As soon as they find a guy who has good numbers against a pitcher, they add this guy to their list of hitters to strongly consider.

On the other hand, you have guys who swear against BvP. These guys can end up completely discarding a hitter simply because he has good numbers against a pitcher.

That second one doesn’t make much sense, does it? But that’s the group I used to be in. Perhaps that’s the group you are in yourself.

You see, one of my greatest strengths (not just in DFS, but in life, in general) is my staunch desire to avoid groupthink and to always come to my own decisions, beliefs, opinions, etc. It took me a long time to realize, however, that this is one of my greatest weaknesses as well.

Because I am so adamant about “arriving at my own decisions, beliefs, opinions, etc.,” I can sometimes — subconsciously, and entirely unintentionally — end up going the opposite direction of others simply because I want to make sure I’m going my own way. This is pretty dumb. It’s like the hipster mentality of no longer liking a band because that band has become popular. Hey, sometimes a band becomes popular because they’re good, and that’s why you liked them in the first place! And sometimes, people flock to a certain way of thinking because it’s the right way of thinking, and this doesn’t mean you need to go the opposite direction yourself.

For several months of my MLB DFS career — without ever really realizing I was doing so — I automatically ignored any guy who had great numbers against the pitcher he was facing that day. It wasn’t that I thought such guys would do poorly “because they have great numbers against the pitcher.” Instead, it was that I had decided I did not believe in BvP, so I subconsciously discarded any guys who stood out to me as a result of their BvP numbers.

Here’s the thing about BvP, though: yes, most of it is unquantifiable. There are plenty of psychological elements in sports that cannot be analytically measured, and sometimes (though there is really no way for us to know when this is the case) a guy will have a great game against a pitcher simply because he has great numbers against that guy in the past; he comes to the plate with extra confidence and extra belief in his imminent success, and the pitcher steps on the rubber with a little less confidence than normal — and with a little more hesitation in his approach — all because these two guys are each fully aware of their history against one another.

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About the Author

JMToWin
JM Tohline (JMToWin)

JM Tohline (Tuh-lean) – DFS alias JMToWin – is a novelist and a DFS player who specializes in high-stakes MLB and NFL tourneys, with a strategy geared toward single-entry play in multi-entry tourneys. He joined the DFS scene at the beginning of the 2014 MLB season, and has since won five DFS championship seats and two separate trips to the Bahamas. His tendency to type a lot of words leads to a corresponding tendency to divulge all his DFS thoughts, strategies, and secrets…which is exactly what he does in his RotoGrinders articles and RotoAcademy courses. You can find JM on Twitter at JMToWin.