Introducing the Data
As mentioned in the introduction, the dataset I used to analyze this data includes 22,105 games by players. The data has the following properties:
• Data ranges back to the 2013-14 season up to December 31st, 2015
• Includes only players who played more than 25 minutes in a game
• Historical odds were pulled from oddshark.com and player performance data was pulled from basketball-reference.com
• All fantasy points referenced are for FanDuel scoring, as that made the calculations a bit easier (no double-double and triple-double bonuses) but the theory can apply to any scoring system that closely resembles FanDuel and DraftKings.
The following table breaks down the 22,105 games by the line total as well as the final total fantasy points scored by the player.