Is BvP Useful?
I’ve basically already said that I think BvP isn’t really all that predictive. It exists, but that doesn’t mean it can help us. Here are some numbers to help prove that to be the case.
I looked at every batter since the start of the 2014 season until now to be matched up against a pitcher against whom he had at least 10 career at-bats. I then cut into that group by looking solely at those batters with a Plus/Minus of at least one point.
So what’s Plus/Minus? It’s a metric I created at Fantasy Labs to convey player value. Basically, we use historic data on pricing and production to determine how many points a player “should” score in a given game based on his cost. Then we look at how many points he (or a group of players) actually scored in specific situations. The difference is the Plus/Minus, and a higher number is better. A negative number means that, based on his salaries, a player has performed below expectations.
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