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  • MLB DFS Essentials: Set the Foundation for Winning Play

MLB Player Projections: Foundational Knowledge

Derek Carty (DerekCarty)

You may recognize Derek Carty from his role on Baseball Tonight, his articles at ESPN.com, or his occasional SportsCenter appearances. He’s also been published by FOX Sports, Sports Illustrated, NBC’s Rotoworld, FanDuel, and Fantasy Insiders, among many others. He’s a long-time DFS player and the creator of THE BAT and THE BLITZ, perhaps the most sophisticated DFS projection systems on the market. Prior to DFS, Derek honed his statistical chops as the Fantasy Manager of two of the biggest sabermetric outlets, Baseball Prospectus and The Hardball Times (now the nerdier branch of FanGraphs — yes, that’s a thing), and holds an elite track record in year-long expert leagues (6 titles while finishing top-3 over 50% of the time). He’s also the only active fantasy writer to have graduated from MLB’s exclusive Scout School, which he blends with his statistical background to form a complete picture of a player.

If you’re not using projections as part of your DFS process, you’re either a losing DFS player or you’re leaving money on the table. That may sound blunt, but it’s true. Please. Spend five minutes. Read this article. Try to be open-minded. And I promise you will become a better DFS player by the end of it. Even if you already use projections, there are key things your projections need to be doing, and if they aren’t, you may want to reevaluate.

Why Are Projections Important?

1. All the top players use projections

You won’t find a single truly successful DFS player that doesn’t use projections as part of their process. Some may not admit that they’re using them or won’t reveal what their projection process looks like in order to maintain their edge. Some players who don’t use projections try to come off as being successful, even if they aren’t, in order to sell you something. But rest assured: all the truly best DFS players use some form of projection. Which begs the question: why aren’t you using them? Especially because…

2. Using projections saves you time

So many DFS players waste countless hours digging into splits and umpire data and weather and Statcast metrics and tons of other data points, then manually analyzing the data to try to figure out who the best plays are. THIS IS A WASTE OF TIME! Why? Because…

3. Projections accounts for all the things you’re trying to account for, but they do it better!

About the Author

  • Derek Carty (DerekCarty)

  • You may recognize Derek Carty from his role on Baseball Tonight, his articles at ESPN.com, or his occasional SportsCenter appearances. He’s also been published by FOX Sports, Sports Illustrated, NBC’s Rotoworld, FanDuel, and Fantasy Insiders, among many others. He’s a long-time DFS player and the creator of THE BAT and THE BLITZ, perhaps the most sophisticated DFS projection systems on the market. Prior to DFS, Derek honed his statistical chops as the Fantasy Manager of two of the biggest sabermetric outlets, Baseball Prospectus and The Hardball Times (now the nerdier branch of FanGraphs — yes, that’s a thing), and holds an elite track record in year-long expert leagues (6 titles while finishing top-3 over 50% of the time). He’s also the only active fantasy writer to have graduated from MLB’s exclusive Scout School, which he blends with his statistical background to form a complete picture of a player.

Instructor

You may recognize Derek Carty from his role on Baseball Tonight, his articles at ESPN.com, or his occasional SportsCenter appearances. He’s also been published by FOX Sports, Sports Illustrated, NBC’s Rotoworld, FanDuel, and Fantasy Insiders, among many others. He’s a long-time DFS player and the creator of THE BAT and THE BLITZ, perhaps the most sophisticated DFS projection systems on the market. Prior to DFS, Derek honed his statistical chops as the Fantasy Manager of two of the biggest sabermetric outlets, Baseball Prospectus and The Hardball Times (now the nerdier branch of FanGraphs — yes, that’s a thing), and holds an elite track record in year-long expert leagues (6 titles while finishing top-3 over 50% of the time). He’s also the only active fantasy writer to have graduated from MLB’s exclusive Scout School, which he blends with his statistical background to form a complete picture of a player.

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