Targeting Players From Underdogs
Now that we’ve looked at favorites, what about underdogs? Is it worth taking players in a game where they are underdogs? And if so, do we care how big of an underdog a player is?
Zero to Five-Point Underdogs
So looking at players that enter the game as very small underdogs, we see that the numbers show that over the last two seasons only 3% of all players across all games reached the 50-point plateau. When you break it down by the total, you find that the odds of a player to reach 50 fantasy points almost double when the game is very high scoring, with 6% of players in high totals (>210) reaching 50 fantasy points as slight underdogs. This trend continues all the way through to players who score 30 or more fantasy points. The table and graph below do paint a very clear picture. There are not a lot of players who complete 25 minutes in games with very low totals, and even those that do, they don’t exceed the 40-point plateau very often. This tells me that in close games, it is almost never worth taking players in a low-scoring game, as the drop off is significant when the over/under drops from 190 to below 190.
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