Utilizing Vegas Lines and Run Totals
Unless you are new to the daily fantasy sports industry, you should be familiar with Vegas lines and the importance that they play in our daily research routines. Sportsbooks must produce accurate lines in order for them to be profitable, which allows us to trust the lines that they set each and every day. The Vegas lines are not only an accurate prediction of each game, but they are also a free source of information.
Using Vegas lines is essential when trying to predict any sport, but maybe even more so in baseball than it is in other sports. Oddsmakers take into account team performance, pitching matchups, ballpark factors, splits, recent trends, weather, and anything else that could possibly affect the outcome of each game. Basically, they are doing all of the work for us and, once again, this is free information.
Vegas lines in the NFL and the NBA are very similar. We have the spread of each game, as well at the total. From there, we can derive implied team totals, which are very useful in determining exploitable matchups for fantasy production. MLB lines are a bit different in that there is no point spread. Instead, there is a moneyline set for each game. The moneyline ranges from -105 (or -110 depending on the book) to around -300. The larger the moneyline (negative), the more of a favorite that team is. There is also a total set for each game, which is known as the run total.
Let’s take a look at how Vegas lines affect pitchers and hitters and how we can incorporate the lines into our decision-making:
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