VSiN's Alexander on DK Betting Event: 'Sports Bettors Licking Chops'
The DraftKings Sports Betting National Championship (SBNC) kicks off Friday in New Jersey with $1 million going to the winner and $2.5 million guaranteed in overall prize money. The large payday is drawing some of sports betting’s biggest names to the Garden State, including VSiN’s Gill Alexander.
Best known as the voice of VSiN’s “A Numbers Game” on SiriusXM radio, Alexander also hosts the widely popular “Beating the Book” podcast and is the co-host of the “Behind the Book” video sports show with MGM sportsbook director Jay Rood.
Alexander was the first-ever contracted analyst at DrBobSports.com, where he consistently moved the market on release during his five-season tenure. His use of advanced metrics remains an integral part of their baseball statistical model.
Alexander is based in Las Vegas but as luck would have it, he’s in New Jersey the same week as the SBNC. He figured since he’s already in the state, why not stay a couple extra days and try to win $1 million dollars.
“I’m in Atlantic City for a pre-scheduled trip,” Alexander told RotoGrinders. “It just so happened that because it was the same week as the contest and I’m here, I said ‘Let’s do it.’ I don’t know if it wasn’t the same week if I would have made the trip.”
The contest will be a mix of DFS players, pro gamblers and sports bettors looking to make a name for themselves by winning the SBNC. Alexander believes pro bettors will have an advantage over some of the other competitors.
“For me, those of us who are sports bettors, have all come to the same conclusion that this is a pretty good opportunity,” Alexander said. “There appears to be an overlay. There appears to be a lot of fantasy players who are going to be in it, so sports bettors are licking their chops about it.”
The following interview has been edited lightly for brevity and clarity. Check out our additional contestant profiles here with H3Budda, here with tipandpick, and here with beermakerfan.
Gill Alexander talks strategy, winning bankroll and future of sports betting contests
RotoGrinders (RG): Have you used the DraftKings Sportsbook before or another new, legal sportsbook in New Jersey?
Gill Alexander (GA): I have not. This is my first time betting in New Jersey.
RG: Any sense of what the competition will be like at the SBNC? Pro Bettors? More people from Las Vegas?
GA: Right now, there is just under 100 DFS qualifiers and around 200 people signed up. A few hours before the contest that number will grow. I know a list of some big names who are playing in it like Phil Hellmuth and some other top-end players.
RG: Do you think a pro gambler will win this event?
GA: I think so. Here’s the thing about it: It’s called the National Sports Betting Championship. I think that’s a myth to some degree. This will be a reflection of handicapping prowess, I think.
RG: What do you think will be a popular strategy for the event?
GA: It’s hard to speculate because you don’t know what people are going to do. I assume there will be a significant percentage of bettors who will make as many big bets as they can and try to get hot. I think a percentage of the contest will try to do that. That will be a popular tactic. I think the steady method will also be popular. People who have thought it through a little more.
RG: Any guess as to how high the winning bankroll will get?
GA: I’m going to guess $40,000. Phil Hellmuth is quoted as saying his advantage is once he gets to $100,000, he’s more willing to risk his money than anybody else would. It’s sort of comical on two fronts. One, you’re getting to $100,000 Phil, are ya? That’s interesting.
Two, the fact that he thinks he’s the only one that has the stomach to take risks there is sort of comical. You have a lot of people there that are experienced contest players who are super smart and based on the rules given can sort of script out a path. Whether that path gets executed or not is another story. It still is betting but the strategy is clear to them.
RG: Do you think analytics will play a role in an event like this?
GA: I don’t think so. This is more of a game theory than anything to do with analytics. But I do think there are some rules involved that dictate behavior. Certainly, what will be interesting is once a winner is determined on Sunday to go back and see what the road to victory was. That will be a fascinating exercise. When I think analytics, I think someone using a predictive modeling that’s trying to beat sports over a long-term. I don’t think that applies here.
RG: Are there any contest rules that could use clarification, in your opinion?
GA: Yes, there is actually. There was some question with the funding of the accounts. Do you have to be in Jersey City? Could you fund from say, Atlantic City as opposed to where it’s headquartered? That was an initial question.
There is also some question about what we refer to as a “bet factor.” We just wanted some clarification that everyone in the contest would have the same limits on everything. There was some worry that people who already have pre-existing DK accounts who have a certain limit will have a different limit than people entering the contest and are first-time DK users. I would assume they have that worked out but I’d like to see something on paper just to be comforted by that. Those are the two biggest ones.
RG: Do you see more things like the DK Sports Betting Championship taking place in the future? Do you think we could see something like this in Las Vegas?
GA: 100 percent on both. Absolutely. I think even DraftKings once they do this once will improve upon it. I think even they will admit they probably didn’t publicize it quickly enough. That’s the one glaring thing about this one. I think next time they could have different rules based on what they see and I think another company will copycat it.
In Las Vegas, if the Westgate, Stations, the Golden Nugget run a football contest, if they think they’re going to be the only game in town from this point moving forward and someone isn’t going to try to do something much more creative and well-run, they’re kidding themselves. Who knows, based on law, even on a national scale if companies will be able to do something like that. It’s only going to get bigger. One day we’ll look back and laugh about how primitive we are now.