Stafford Trade: Sportsbooks Adjust Rams' Futures Odds
With the Chiefs and Buccaneers preparing for the Super Bowl, and the Pro Bowl canceled, the weekend was supposed to be relatively quiet as far as the NFL was concerned. That changed Saturday night when the Los Angeles Rams acquired Matthew Stafford from the Detroit Lions, delivering NFL fans the first of many offseason surprises.
The Rams exchange Jared Goff, a pair of future first-round picks and a third-round pick to Detroit for the 32-year-old quarterback. While that sounds like a lot to give up for a quarterback who packs an 0-3 playoff record into a suitcase full of injuries, the Rams hope Stafford will open a Super Bowl window that they otherwise believed Goff couldn’t budge.
Sportsbooks React to Rams-Lions Trade
At least in the short term, oddsmakers agree Stafford is a significant upgrade from Goff, both of whom were no. 1 overall picks in the NFL draft. Last week the Rams were +2000 to win Super Bowl LVI and the Lions +6600. Following the blockbuster trade, DraftKings Sportsbook shortened the Rams’ Super Bowl odds to +1100 while stretching the Lions’ to +10000.
Now tied with the Buccaneers, the Rams sit behind only the Chiefs (+575) and Packers (+900) as betting favorites heading into the offseason, and their NFC Championship odds are +500 next to the Packers +450.
Rams fans will find friendlier prices at PointsBet, where the Rams are +700 to represent the NFC in the 2022 Super Bowl and +1400 to win it.
Though divisional odds for the 2021-22 season aren’t yet available at online sports betting sites, Rams will presumably be favored to win the crowded NFC West once they are.
Goff vs. Stafford, By The Numbers
Stafford is winless in the playoffs, while the Rams are just three years removed from a Super Bowl appearance with Goff. But arguing “quarterback wins” won’t get you far (though it will get you plenty of Twitter mentions).
Since selected to the Pro Bowl in consecutive seasons and losing to the Patriots 13-3 in the Super Bowl, Goff’s play has been insidious, and so has the Rams’ offense.
According to Football Outsiders, Rams’ pass DVOA fell from 5th & 8th during Goff’s pro-bowl seasons to 16th and 20th in 2019 and 2020.
Despite 65 more attempts and 30 more completions in 2019, Goff threw for fewer yards and touchdowns (22) than his 4,688 passing yards and 32 touchdowns from 2018. Goff had a career-high completion percentage (67%) in 2020 but averaged only 263.5 yards per game. His high completion percentage is the product of a very shallow 6.6-yard average depth of target (aDOT), compared to Stafford’s 8.7-yard aDOT which was fifth-highest in the NFL.
Most recently, Goff graded out as the No. 23 passer (No. 26th in overall offense grade) and earned only 1.13 wins above replacement (15th), per Pro Football Focus. On the other hand, Stafford was the 12th-most valuable player in the NFL in 2020, finishing the season No. 13 in pass grade, down from No. 7 the year prior.
Similar numbers check out over at Football Outsiders. There Stafford finished the season 14th and 16th, respectively, in DVOA and VOA, while Goff is 22nd and 23rd. In the QBR department, Stafford’s 68.8 ranks 16th, eight spots ahead of Goff’s 58.5.
Most importantly, the Rams managed to offload one of the worst contracts in the NFL after signing Goff to a $134M deal in 2019, which would have kept him in LA through 2024 absent a trade. The Lions will absorb most of that contract while using the 26-year-old as a placeholder and rebuild with two additional future first-rounders in mind.
Stafford joins a team with a formidable running game and the No. 1 scoring defense for the first time in his career. Playing alongside a single 1,000-yard rusher, Stafford carried the lion’s share of the work since being drafted in 2019. Detroit’s defense finished inside the top 10 in scoring merely once during that span.
Did the Rams sacrifice too much or shove all-in at precisely the right time? The jury is out, and the inherent noise and randomness of two, maybe three NFL seasons will unjustly determine the verdict. If the Rams hit on the turn or the river, returning to an NFC title game, we’ll laud them for their gall and foresight; anything less, and we’ll laugh at all the assets they gave up.
With zero first-round picks until 2023, the league’s top defensive tackle turning 30 in May, and two wide receivers closer to 30 than 25, the margin for error is thin.
More NFL Betting Implications Ahead
Back at the sportsbook, NFL bettors have their eyes on more than Super Bowl, conference championship and divisional odds for the upcoming season — the trade will also impact the market for the NFL MVP Award, which Stafford was a +6600 longshot to win last September and will presumably be given to Aaron Rodgers in a few days.
Playing on a legit Super Bowl contender rather than a franchise whose last playoff win came in 1992, Stafford’s MVP odds are likely to open at a much shorter number this time around.
Having shown the ability to rack up stats throughout his career, the Rams’ new quarterback is undoubtedly worthy of MVP betting consideration depending on how dramatically oddsmakers adjust. Remember, the gunslinger was on pace for a whopping 5,000 yards through eight games in 2019 before an injury sidelined him the rest of the way, and he has eclipsed 4,000 passing yards in eight-of-nine seasons in which he’s started 16 games.
Additionally, before jumping on the Rams’ futures odds, NFL bettors should keep in mind that we might be in store for one of the wildest offseason QB carousels yet. Deshaun Watson demanded a trade from the Texans, and there’s speculation that Aaron Rodgers could do the same in Green Bay. Meanwhile, offseason questions surround Dak Prescott, Jameis Winston, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Carson Wentz, among others.
If more blockbuster QB trades await, another NFC West team makes a plausible participant: the San Francisco 49ers
At Fanduel Sportsbook, the 49ers were actually +125 favorites to land Stafford before Saturday night’s news.
While a Rodgers trade, especially intra-conference, seems far fetched BetMGM currently lists Rodgers 1000 to take the first Packers’ snap in Week 1, there’s no reason to think the 49ers won’t upgrade from Jimmy Garoppolo if possible. In the event they do, Rams’ futures odds will be affected.
Until the next domino falls, we make picks for the Waste Management Open, bet on longshots to win Super Bowl MVP, and search for value in Super Bowl props.
Image Credit: Imagn