Super Bowl prop betting is big business. Prop bets are more popular than ever with both professional gamblers and casual bettors. Sportsbooks all over the country are already taking a lot of action on Super Bowl LIII props, with a lot more yet to come as we get closer to kickoff.
The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook released its 442 Super Bowl props on Jan. 24. They were met with long lines and extensive media coverage. The SuperBook took over $400,000 in prop bets in the first three hours and by the following day, the total had already exceeded six figures.
Early sharp bettors go under on props
Early bettors were allowed to place a maximum of $2,000 on two prop bets before moving to the back of the line. A couple of prop bets were bet hard as soon as the odds were released.
Money came in on Under for the Rams rushing total and Todd Gurley’s rushing yards. The Rams team rushing yards total dropped from 127.5 down to 113.5, and Todd Gurley’s rushing yards went from an opening number of 68.5 to 62.5 in the first few hours of wagering.
It sounds like sharp bettors don’t have much faith in Gurley and the Rams’ running game. After dealing with a knee injury late in the season, Gurley gained just 10 yards on four carries in the NFC Championship, calling into question how healthy he is for the Super Bowl.
While the public tends to bet Over and Yes on prop bets, early sharps bettors like to go the other way when they see value. They’re also looking to bet middles when lines are different at competing sportsbooks. That was the case at the SuperBook with the initial wave of prop bets.
“The guys who are betting early are betting us to other casinos looking for middles and scalps,” said Ed Salmons, Westgate LV SuperBook sportsbook manager. “You do have some people who are strictly gambling. Those guys are betting all No’s, like will Jared Goff throw a touchdown pass in the first, second, third and fourth quarter. That’s how they bet for the most part. The majority of their bets are on the unders and stuff we’ll be rooting for come the game after the public comes in on the overs.”
[Also See: Super Bowl Prop Bets Chat: Discussing Our Top Patriots-Rams Props]
New Jersey to offer props never seen in Las Vegas
Nevada regulations limits Las Vegas sportsbooks to props where the outcome is decided on the field. In New Jersey, the state’s gaming commission has allowed oddsmakers to post props beyond the field of play. For example, New Jersey sportsbooks can offer props on which color the Gatorade dunked on the winning coach.
“In New Jersey, we’ve been approved to do some things others have never been able to do,” said Johnny Avello, DraftKings’ director of sportsbook operations. “We can offer things like will Tom Brady announce his retirement after the game, will a player jump in the stands after a touchdown, or will the roof of Mercedes-Benz Stadium be open for kickoff? We’re doing some things in New Jersey that the Vegas sportsbooks have never been able to do.”
Chris Hogan Super Bowl MVP?
FanDuel sportsbook in New Jersey is offering over 500 Super Bowl props. While prop betting has been steady since the odds were released, John Sheeran, risk manager for FanDuel Sportsbook at the Meadowlands, believes most of the money will come in 24-48 hours before kickoff.
The most popular prop bet at FanDuel after the first week of wagering was player to win MVP, with four Patriots leading the way.
“Two of the most popular props we’ve seen so far are the MVP and some of the touchdown scorers,” said Sheeran. “The four most popular ones for MVP are all Patriots. Surprisingly, Chris Hogan (100/1) and Julian Edelman (40/1) are our biggest exposure. They’ll obviously find it difficult to win because their production is tied to Tom Brady’s performance, so we’re happy with those two.
“Sony Michel (16/1), we have a significant six-figure liability on him already and he’s probably the most likely option outside of Brady from a Patriots perspective. And Gronkowski (50/1) is the fourth one, so it’s all Patriots for MVP.”
The most money at William Hill is on…James Develin
William Hill is leading the way in sheer volume of props this year with over 1,000 Super Bowl offerings. The sportsbook released its most popular prop bets after the first week of wagering. Topping the list is “No” on will James Develin score a touchdown? The Patriots’ fullback scored four touchdowns this year but didn’t see a carry in 10 of 14 games.
Most prop bets coming closer to kickoff
While money has been coming in on prop bets for over week, it’s important to remember that most of Super Bowl wagering happens closer to kickoff. Jay Rood, vice president of race and sports for MGM Resorts, said he doesn’t want to see too much early money on props because it means bettors are taking advantage of what they believe is a soft line.
“You don’t want to see a whole lot of prop action early on because that means sharps players are betting into it if they find value in the props,” said Rood. “Obviously, we want the number to be as tight as we can. When you’re talking about this event and so many unique props, there’s going to be lots of different opinions out there.
“You have operators in different jurisdictions putting out props, so you’re going to have professional gamblers that will bet you against another property. If we have Gurley at 90 yards rushing and another property doesn’t think he’s going to play much and makes it 68 yards, they’re going to bet us UNDER and them OVER until we both make it 75 yards or something in the middle.”