Basketball lines move quickly, so monitoring movements and grabbing the right number is crucial to getting the “best” number for long-term sports . betting success. We look at Tuesday’s basketball lineups and identify games with the biggest line moves since the opening number, including a college total that has shifted five points.
College basketball
Seton Hall at Providence
Opening Line: Pick, 144
Current Line: Providence -1.5, 139
This line opened as a pick ’em but has moved to the home team with Providence now laying either 1.5 or 2 points, depending on the book. At the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, the game moved from a pick to Providence -1.5 three hours after the line was released with early money backing the Friars. The number reached -2 before dropping back down to 1.5.
Both teams are struggling entering Tuesday’s matchup. Providence has dropped three straight both SU and ATS, while Seton Hall has lost two of three, both on the road. Playing at home isn’t a big advantage for the Friars recently where Providence is just 10-22 ATS in its last 32 games.
The total has seen a significant move from the opening number of 144 down to 139. The SuperBook moved the total from 141.5 to 138.5 in a 20-minute span Tuesday morning. William Hill dropped the total from 145.5 to 138 over the course of 30 minutes. Once the line reached its lowest point, bettors began to hit the other side. The number moved to 139 at the SuperBook and William Hill at the time this article was published.
The six-point swing to the UNDER is interesting considering Seton Hall is 11-3 to the OVER in its last 14 road games. The Pirates have also gone OVER the total in three of their last four games.
Seton Hall won both meetings last season by 12 and 16 points.
Kentucky at Georgia
Opening Line: Kentucky -6, 145
Current Line: Kentucky -7.5, 147.5
Kentucky opened -6 and not surprisingly, money has come in on the Wildcats to push the number to -7.5. The SuperBook moved the number from six to seven a few hours after releasing the line. Kentucky hit -8 at the SuperBook, William Hill, FanDuel Sportsbook and many other books before dropping back down to 7.5 Tuesday morning.
The Wildcats are 5-1 SU in their last six games but have failed to cover three straight. Kentucky hasn’t been the same team away from home this year, going 2-3 SU. On the other hand, Georgia is 7-1 SU and ATS at home. The Bulldogs are coming off a 93-78 loss to Auburn but are 7-3 overall in their last 10 games. Georgia is 7-2 ATS in their last nine games and the home team is 10-3 ATS the last 13 meetings.
The total has moved 2.5 points at the SuperBook from 145 to 147.5. That was the consensus number at sportsbooks as of Tuesday morning. However, the last three meetings between the two teams has gone UNDER with the highest total being 146.5 during that stretch.
Kentucky has beaten Georgia 11 times in a row and leads the all-time series 126-26.
South Florida at Cincinnati
Opening Line: Cincinnati -11.5, 125.5
Current Line: Cincinnati -13, 125.5
The Bearcats opened 11.5 over South Florida in a game that looks pretty even on paper but that didn’t deter bettors from getting down early on Cincinnati. The SuperBook opened Cincinnati 11.5 and the line jumped to 13 in the first seven hours. Most books were sitting at Cincinnati -13 as of Tuesday morning.
Cincinnati has won the last nine meetings SU but South Florida has been the profitable side in this series recently, going 15-5-1 ATS the last 21 games. The Bulls dropped their last two road games to Temple and Tulsa by a total of just five points. Overall, the Bulls are 11-5 ATS this season and on an 8-2 run versus the number.
The Bearcats are coming off back-to-back overtime games. Cincinnati beat Tulsa 70-65 on the road as a 6.5-point favorite and edged UConn at home 74-72 as an 11-point favorite. The Bearcats have failed to cover three straight and six of their last 10 games.
The total opened a low 125.5 and moved all the way up to 129 at the SuperBook. However, Tuesday morning it dropped back down to 125.5 in less than an hour with money coming in on the UNDER at 129, 127.5 and 126.5. FanDuel was sitting with one of the lowest totals at 125. The OVER is 19-7 in South Florida’s last 26 road games.
The underdog has been a good bet in this series of late, going 7-2-1 ATS the last 10 meetings.
NBA
Golden State at Denver
Opening Line: Golden State -1.5, 228
Current Line: Pick, 228
It’s a light slate in the NBA on Tuesday night. The one game to see a noteworthy line movement is between Golden State and Denver.
The Warriors opened -1.5 but bettors are backing the home team. At the SuperBook, the number opened -1.5 but quickly went down to a pick. Golden State briefly moved to a 1-point favorite before the game went back to a pick Tuesday morning. The Wynn. CG Technology and FanDuel had the Warriors still laying a point.
There are a couple potential reasons bettors are coming in on the Nuggets. One is the Warriors are tied with Memphis for the worst ATS record in the NBA this season at 18-25. Golden State is just 5-11 ATS in its last 16 games.
Another reason is the Nuggets have been close to unbeatable at home, going 18-3 SU and 14-7 ATS. Meanwhile, Golden State is an average 12-8 on the road and 8-12 ATS.
The total in this game initially dropped from 228 to 227.5 but went back up to 228 at most books as of Tuesday morning. These two teams tend to play high scoring games when they get together. The OVER is 11-3 the last 14 meetings, although the last two games have come in UNDER the total.
The Nuggets have won four of the last six games against Golden State, going 4-1-1 ATS in that span.