10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful NBA Notes for February 27th
This NBA season, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that day’s slate of NBA games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.
I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about today’s NBA plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 NBA notes for Monday, February 27th.
1. After a 32-point, 27-rebound outburst against the Rockets on Saturday, Karl-Anthony Towns now has at least 24 points and 18 rebounds in three consecutive games. Before Towns, only three players had recorded 24 points and 18 rebounds in three straight: DeMarcus Cousins in 2015, Shawn Marion in 2006, and Shaquille O’Neal in 1994. On Monday, he faces a Boogie-less Kings team that recently gave up 47.1 FanDuel points to Frank Kaminsky, which was his career high. Sacramento won’t have an answer for the far-more-athletic Towns, and we can reasonably expect 50+ FanDuel points from Towns in this one.
2. One word of caution about Towns, however: he’s been far more effective at home than on the road this year, averaging 6.5 more FanDuel points at the Target Center (47.2 at home, 40.7 away). He’ll need 50 FanDuel points to come close to exceeding 5x value on Monday, and that’s something he’s done just six times on the road this year, compared to 13 times at home. Even so, he’s one of the highest raw points plays on the day, and the only question is whether or not he fits the optimal build for Monday’s slate.
3. Giannis Antetokounmpo has scored 22+ points against the Cavs in six straight games; that’s the longest streak against Cleveland since LeBron began his second stint with the Cavs (and, incidentally, LeBron is the only player with a longer streak against Cleveland since 2010; he scored 22+ in eight straight against the Cavs from 2014-16 as a member of the Heat. #RevengeIsReal). With Jabari Parker out for the season and Khris Middleton ruled out for Monday’s contest, and according to RotoGrinders CourtIQ, Giannis has a 29.0 percent usage rate (in a large sample of 664 minutes) with both players off the floor this season. While Giannis is far from a traditional point guard, it’s worth noting that the Cavaliers are a bottom-five team in DvP against the position. His price tag is becoming a bit prohibitive (he’s $10,900 at FanDuel and $10,700 at DraftKings), but given some of the elite options at shooting guard (Harden, DeRozan, and Klay if Durant sits), Giannis should see lower-than-usual ownership.
4. If you’re looking for a defensive duel, you may want to avert your eyes from the Celtics/Hawks game, which features the 86th- and 87th-ranked point guards, in terms of defensive real plus minus (and in case you’re wondering, that’s out of 87 qualified point guards). Isaiah Thomas (-4.40 DRPM) and Dennis Schroder (-3.39 DRPM) are turnstiles for opposing point guards, and they’re both reasonably priced; after dipping his toes into the $10K pricing tier, Isaiah Thomas is back at his far more familiar, far more tolerable $9K range, while Schroder is a downright bargain at $6,500 at FanDuel and $6,300 at DraftKings. One interesting strategy might be to pair up both guards as a correlation play in tournaments. Either way, expect offensive fireworks and defensive ineptitude from both sides of this game.
5. On Saturday, with Kevin Love and LeBron James out, Kyrie Irving had seven first-quarter rebounds; he hadn’t recorded seven rebounds in an entire game in the 46 games prior, dating back to November 15th of last year (apologies to my Twitter followers for the recycled stat; it’s late). Basically, Kyrie had to do everything in that game, and with LeBron James being diagnosed with strep throat, it seems likely that he remains out. If this happens, Kyrie becomes the unquestioned lock of the day, even against a Bucks team that ranks third in the NBA in DvP against the point guard position.
6. Only four players have averaged 20+ points, 10+ boards, 2+ assists, and 1+ steal since February 9th: Russell Westbrook, Anthony Davis, DeMarcus Cousins, and Dario Saric. Saric has seen gotten Embiid-like love from the DFS community, and while there are concerns – the rapidly inflating price tag (he’s now at $7,000 at FanDuel and $7,600 at DraftKings), the possibility of Draymond defense (he ranks second in the NBA in DRPM), the 14-year-old-boy mustache (self-explanatory) – it’s hard to argue with the consistency Saric has shown over his past six games, in which he hasn’t once dipped below 35 FanDuel points or 38 DraftKings points. It might be time to consider fading Saric in tournaments; he’s strictly a cash game play, given his popularity, price, and the fact that, in that same stretch of games, he also hasn’t risen above 43 FanDuel points or 45.2 DraftKings points.
7. Here is a list of FanDuel point totals allowed to centers against the Houston Rockets in February:
68.3 (DeMarcus Cousins)
67.9 (Karl-Anthony Towns)
57.1 (Dwight Howard)
50.3 (Hassan Whiteside)
49.8 (Nikola Vucevic)
46.3 (Anthony Davis)
That’s six games of 46+ FanDuel points allowed to opposing centers this month (including a few by centers who don’t normally reach 50, like Dwight and Vuc); no other team has allowed more than three such games this month. It should surprise no one that in the past four weeks, the Rockets rank 28th in DvP against the center position, which puts Myles Turner squarely in play on Monday. Turner seems to have found the consistency that eluded him earlier in his career, posting 30+ FanDuel points in five of his last six games. One cause for concern, however, is his drastic home/road splits; he’s averaging over six more FanDuel points at home this year than on the road (33.6 to 27.2).
8. In three games against the Rockets since 2015-16, Paul George has averaged 46.7 FanDuel points; that’s his second-highest FanDuel output by opponent (he’s averaged 48.2 against the Clippers during that span). In a pace-up game with the highest total on the slate (at time of writing), George seems safe for cash games. But the lack of an elite ceiling makes it difficult to click his name for tournaments. Case in point, he’s only reached 50 FanDuel points twice this year. Last year, he reached that number 12 times.
9. Robert Covington and the Sixers find themselves in a pace-up matchup against the Warriors on Monday, and that might not be good news for Covington; of the 14 times he’s faced an opponent who ranks in the top 10 in pace, he’s exceeded 35 FanDuel points (what he’ll need to reach 5x value on Monday) on just one occasion.
10. Kyle Korver currently has an 85.1 true shooting percentage this month; that’s the best single-month true shooting percentage by a player (minimum six games and 20 minutes per game) since (get ready) Joel Pryzbilla in 2008. His 62.5 percent from three-point land this month is the best of any player in any single month since Walt Williams shot 63.2 percent in April of 2000. In other words, Korver is absolutely on fire. He only took eight shots on Saturday with both Love and LeBron out of the lineup, and it’s likely that the absence of those two (and in particular, James) hinders his ability to find open shots. Even so, at just $4,500 at FanDuel and $4,800 at DraftKings, Korver makes an interesting tournament flier against a Bucks team that allows 10.6 threes per game, fourth-most in the NBA.
______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ Daily Research Console, StatMuse, Basketball Reference, and NBA.com.
Check back for more “10 Notes” NBA articles throughout the year (typically posted on Mondays, Thursdays, and Saturdays), and feel free to drop a comment below if you want to talk about today’s slate of NBA games.