10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful NBA Notes for February 6th
This NBA season, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that day’s slate of NBA games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.
I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about today’s NBA plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 NBA notes for Monday, February 6th.
1. After putting up 42 points against the Blazers on Sunday, Russell Westbrook has eclipsed the 40-point mark eight times this season; he only scored more than 40 points on four occasions all of last season. Westbrook will be guarded by Jeff Teague on Monday, and it’s a matchup in which he’s thrived in the past. In three of his last four matchups with Teague, Westbrook has put up 30 points, including a 31-point, 11-rebound, 15-assist triple-double on November 20th of this season. As always, he’ll need a huge game to pay off his massive salary ($12,400 at FanDuel, $12,700 at DraftKings), and it’s worth noting that Westbrook has been a better player at home than on the road this season (105.6 offensive rating on the road, compared to 114.2 at home). But you’re never going to be wrong in building around the player with a 41.8 usage rate, the highest in NBA history.
2. Anthony Davis is brittle; we all know this. If you’ve played DFS for any amount of time, you’ve been burned by an Davis injury. It’s a rite of passage. But that narrative is a little misleading, as evidenced by the fact that Brow is the only center in the NBA outside of Karl-Anthony Towns to play 38+ minutes in four straight games this season…and he’s had such a streak on three separate occasions. Despite playing 42 and 44 minutes in two games against Phoenix this year, Davis has largely disappointed, posting just 46 and 37.4 FanDuel points despite the fast-paced matchup. But it’s hard to envision him having a third straight poor game against Phoenix, who is below average in DvP against centers, ranking 18th.
3. D’Angelo Russell has three straight games of 38+ FanDuel points; in his 114 career games prior to those three, he’d exceeded that total 10 times. Russell has been on a roll, and in a matchup against Derrick Rose, who is potentially still hobbled and owns one of the lowest defensive real-plus minus marks in the NBA, Russell has a good shot of putting up a fourth straight big game.
4. Devin Booker put up 31 points on the Bucks on Saturday, and he now has 20+ points in 16 consecutive games. It’s the longest streak by a Suns player since Amar’e Stoudamire scored 20 or more in 18 straight games back in 2008. In the game with the highest total on the slate (at time of writing), and at a shooting guard position that is thin without Giannis or Harden, Booker should be a popular option in cash games on Monday’s slate.
5. The Pelicans have allowed 18+ rebounds to a player on four occasions in 2016; Tyson Chandler is responsible for two of those games. Players like Chandler (old, limited offensive upside) are rarely highly owned, but there’s plenty of room for upside at his modest price tag ($5,400 at FanDuel, $5,100), especially considering that while the Pelicans rank in the top 10 in limiting scoring to opposing centers (20.57 points per game), they allow more rebounds per game (16.06) to the position than any other team in the NBA. This feels like a situation where the puzzle pieces fit together just right, and it’s difficult to imagine Chandler not reaching the teens in rebounds, so long as his minutes don’t suddenly dip.
6. Since January 30th, only two centers have played three or more games and averaged 15+ points, 11+ rebounds, and 3+ assists. One of those players is obvious; it’s DeMarcus Cousins. The other is a bit more surprising: it’s Willy Hernangomez, who has been a revelation for the Knicks as of late. His price has risen accordingly ($5,300 at FanDuel, $5,200 at DraftKings), but it might not have risen enough given his matchup on Monday. The Lakers rank 29th in DvP against centers, and they’ve allowed 30+ FanDuel points to centers on 30 occasions this year; only the Sixers, Timberwolves, and Knicks have allowed more such games to opposing centers. With Joakim Noah already ruled out, Hernangomez could draw the start, and if he does, expect him to be the chalk at the low-end at the center position.
7. Matt Barnes has double-digit rebounds in three straight games for the first time in his career. With Rudy Gay, Garrett Temple, and Omri Casspi all out of action, Barnes should see more than his share of minutes on Monday. He’s priced up at DraftKings ($4,900), but at FanDuel, where he’s still at $3,800, he should have no trouble reaching the roughly 20 points he needs to reach value. In fact, in the 16 games that he’s seen more than 28 minutes this year, he’s exceeded 20 FanDuel points in 13 of them.
8. DeMarcus Cousins has 11 games of seven or more assists this year; previously, he’d never had more than four such games in any season of his career. And on a side note, somebody should check on him to make sure he’s okay; the always irritable Cousins was recently quoted as saying, “I love every guy on this team and I wouldn’t choose another group to go to battle with.” In the same way that we call LeBron “Angry LeBron,” do we need to start calling him “Happy DeMarcus”? Or “Zen DeMarcus”? Maybe one of those will stick.
9. Andrew Wiggins has taken 20+ shots in 32 games this season; that’s one more such game than James Harden. Only Cousins, Lillard, Thomas, DeRozan, and Westbrook have more such games than Wiggins this year, and with Zach LaVine out for the year, he figures to take even more shots in the near future. Per RotoGrinders CourtIQ, has 579.1 minutes this season without LaVine on the floor; in those situations, Wiggins has a usage rate of 35.2 percent, an increase of 5.7 percent compared to when he’s sharing the court with LaVine. From a fantasy standpoint, he’s sort of the small forward version of Devin Booker, having scored 20+ points in nine straight, but doing so little in the way of peripherals that his upside has been somewhat limited (case in point: his February 1st matchup against the Cavs, in which he scored 23 actual points and 23.4 FanDuel points).
10. Eric Bledsoe is averaging 21.4 points, 5 rebounds, 6.1 assists per game this year. The only players to match each of those numbers are Russ, Harden, and LeBron. Bledsoe isn’t necessarily in the same class as those three, but he is having a monster year, and against the Pelicans (26th in DvP against point guards), Bledsoe should have a monster game tonight.
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Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ Daily Research Console, StatMuse, Basketball Reference, and NBA.com.
Check back for more “10 Notes” NBA articles throughout the year (typically posted on Mondays, Thursdays, and Saturdays), and feel free to drop a comment below if you want to talk about today’s slate of NBA games.