10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful NBA Notes for January 16th
This NBA season, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that day’s slate of NBA games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.
I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about today’s NBA plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 NBA notes for Monday, January 16th, 2017.
1. Chris Paul has exceeded 40 FanDuel points in 10 consecutive games against the Thunder dating back to 2/23/2014. Paul has such a high floor in this matchup in part because of his ability to rob Russell Westbrook; he averages 2.96 steals per game in 27 career matchups with Westbrook, and in those 27 games, he’s notched three-plus steals on 16 occasions. He’s got a good chance for multiple steals yet again, as Westbrook is on pace for the second-most turnovers by a player in NBA history. While Westbrook is usually a plug-and-play, his matchup with one of the best defenders in the league (Paul has a league-leading 3.51 DRPM, and the next-highest point guard is Patrick Beverley way down at 1.51), and the fact that Westbrook is on the second half of a back-to-back (where he averages almost four fewer FanDuel points per game than when he’s on one day’s rest), and Paul might be the more appealing option of the two. Then again…
2. Westbrook defies logic, and trying to find a reason to fade him leaves you looking silly more often than not. Today, he’s priced at $12,500, which means that he needs 62.5 FanDuel points to reach 5x value. Over the past 30 days, there have been eight occasions where a point guard has exceeded 62.5 FanDuel points in game. Every single time, that point guard was…Russell Westbrook.
3. Five of LeBron James’ top seven single-game FanDuel point totals of all time (assuming FanDuel offered contests during the NBA Finals) came against the Warriors. That includes 80.7- and 80.1-point efforts against the Warriors in the Finals last year. To find another player who put up more FanDuel points than that…well, you can’t. But if you imagine that FanDuel existed through all of NBA history, you’d find that on May 4, 1994, Charles Barkley’s 56 points, 14 rebounds, four assists, three steals, and one block would have yielded 84.8 FanDuel points. It’s hard to envision a scenario where LeBron doesn’t reach 50 FanDuel points against the Warriors today.
4. Nikola Jokic has 114 games as a pro. During that span, he’s had at least 20 points and 10 rebounds in five games that he’s played fewer than 30 minutes; only Arvydas Sabonis, with eight, has more such games in NBA history. But even though Jokic has proven he can get it done in limited minutes, he’s averaging 27.7 minutes per game in January (more than any other month this season), and foul trouble shouldn’t be an issue, as Bismack Biyombo and Nikola Jokic rank 18th and 35th, respectively, among centers in personal fouls drawn per game. At $8,000 at FanDuel, Jokic needs 40 FanDuel points to hit 5x value; he hasn’t dipped below 35 FanDuel points since December 23rd of last year.
5. Isaiah Thomas is the first player since Kevin McHale (30 games from April-December 1986) to post 24 straight games of 20 or more points. The matchup is certainly not bad (Charlotte ranks 17th in DvP against the point guard position), and he’s at home (where he’s shooting 42.6 percent from three-point land, compared to just 34 percent on the road). But priced at $9,100 at FanDuel (the same as Chris Paul, and $200 less than Stephen Curry in an NBA Finals rematch), it’s hard to envision many people clicking Thomas’s name, which I suppose makes him an interesting tournament option.
6. Since January 1st, four shooting guards have averaged 30+ minutes, 17+ points per game, and 4+ assists per game; they are James Harden, Jimmy Butler, C.J. McCollum, and…Austin Rivers. FanDuel refuses to increase Rivers’s price despite his recent spike in minutes (36.2 minutes per game over his past six), and at $4,400, he’s one of the cheap pieces that will allow you to fit in more desirable options like CP3, Westbrook, Warriors, and Cavs. Another bargain bin option to consider is…
7. Joe Ingles, whose 45.0 three-point percentage paces all NBA shooters (minimum 100 three-point attempts). Rodney Hood has already been ruled for Monday’s game against the Suns, and this season, Ingles averages 11.7 FanDuel points in games with Hood, compared to 28.8 FanDuel points in games without Hood (albeit in a sample of five games). For what it’s worth, Phoenix allows the second-highest three-point percentage (38.3%) to opposing teams.
8. The Denver Nuggets have allowed 30+ FanDuel points to opposing point guards on 27 occasions this year; only the Phoenix Suns (30) have allowed more. Why does the 30-point mark matter? Because that’s what Elfrid Payton ($6,000) needs to reach 5x value at FanDuel tonight against the Nuggets. Payton scored 57.3 FanDuel points against the Jazz (that’s 11.9x, as he was priced at $4,800), which is tied for the most of any player against the Jazz this year, and the highest FanDuel point total of Payton’s career. Against Denver, who ranks 29th in DvP against point guards, Payton should have no trouble filling the box score.
9. In six games as a starter this year, Terrence Jones is averaging 17.0 points, 8.0 rebounds, and 1.8 assists per game. Here’s the list of players whose averages exceed those numbers over the full season: Westbrook, Harden, Cousins, Brow, Towns, Giannis, Millsap, Blake, Durant. It’s an extremely small sample, and Alvin Gentry could pull Jones’s starting gig away at any time. But he’s been effective from a fantasy standpoint in his starting role, and on Monday, Jones ($5,200 at FanDuel) could be a source of salary relief on the early-only slate in a matchup with the Pacers, who rank 21st in DvP against power forwards.
10. Among centers who have averaged 25 minutes per game over the past four weeks, only Joel Embiid (30.2) and DeMarcus Cousins (27.4) average more points per 36 minutes than Enes Kanter’s 24.2. Kanter, who has already seen a minutes uptick recently, could be thrust into even more minutes on Monday, as Steven Adams left Sunday’s game and was evaluated for a concussion. At $6,200 at FanDuel, Kanter is a solid mid-range option at power forward, even against the Clippers’ stingy defense (ranked seventh in DvP against power forwards and 11th against centers).
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Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders Daily Research Console, StatMuse, Basketball Reference, and NBA.com.
Check back for more “10 Notes” NBA articles throughout the year, and feel free to drop a comment below if you want to talk about today’s NBA slates.