10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful NBA Notes for March 10th
This NBA season, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that day’s slate of NBA games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.
I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about today’s NBA plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 NBA notes for Friday, March 10th.
1. Since the calendar flipped to 2017. the Chicago Bulls have allowed opposing point guards to score 50 or more FanDuel points in a game seven times, more than any other team. They’re also one of two teams in the NBA (the Hornets being the other) to allow three games of 60+ FanDuel points to point guards during that span. One of those point guards was, of course, James Harden, whose 42-point, 12-rebound, 9-assist outburst on February 3rd yielded 71.9 FanDuel points. True, Harden required overtime to put up that line, but on Friday, against a Bulls team that ranks in the bottom five in DvP against point guards over the past four weeks, and that was just torched by Elfrid Payton, who triple-doubled and put up 65.8 FanDuel points, Harden has massive upside. After a string of tough matchups (LA, Memphis, San Antonio, Utah), Harden should deliver.
2. Speaking of Payton, his triple-double against the Bulls was his second in a row, which places him alongside Russell Westbrook, James Harden, LeBron James, and Nikola Jokic as the only players this season with two consecutive triple-doubles. As for his own team, there’s only been one other player in Magic history with consecutive triple-doubles…Elfrid Payton, who did it in March of 2015, his rookie season. Payton finds himself in a decent enough matchup on Friday (”(player-popup)Kemba Walker”:/players/kemba-walker-13335’s -0.67 defensive real-plus minus is certainly exploitable), but the sites have gotten wise, and at $7,000 at both DraftKings and FanDuel, Payton no longer comes at a discount. And for what it’s worth, Payton has not had success against the Hornets historically; his 31.4 field goal percentage against Charlotte is second-lowest among any opponent since 2015-16 (min. 4 games).
3. On the other side of that game, Kemba Walker has shot 21 or more times in four consecutive games dating back to March 2nd; no player outside of Russell Westbrook has more field goal attempts than Walker’s 91 during that span (and here’s something even more interesting: Westbrook has put up 150 shots). The Magic have been putrid against point guards this year (25th in DvP against the position), and Walker has been steady, with 40 or more FanDuel points in eight of his last 10 games.
4. In his age 22 season, Giannis Antetokounmpo is averaging 23.3 points, 8.7 rebounds, 5.5 assists, and 2 steals per game. Those numbers have never been matched by any player in NBA history in their age 22 seasons. If we remove the steals from the equation and round the other numbers down, only one player – Oscar Robertson in 1960-61 – has matched Antetokounmpo’s 23-8-5 line. On Friday, he takes on a Pacers team that he’s been effective against this year, posting FanDuel point totals of 52.9 and 48.6 in two meetings. If you can’t find the salary for Harden, the Greek Freak isn’t a bad consolation prize.
5. If you had to guess which players in the NBA have averaged over 36 minutes and shot better than 50 percent from the field since the All-Star break, you might guess great players who never seem to leave the floor (LeBron James). Or, you might guess players who play a ton of minutes and do a lot of damage on high-percentage shots in the paint (Karl-Anthony Towns, Giannis Antetokounmpo). Or, you might look at players who’ve been insanely hot since the break (Mike Conley, Bradley Beal). None of those answers would be wrong. But there’s one other player on the list: Marvin Williams, who is averaging 36.5 minutes and shooting 50 percent since the break. He’s been priced up to $5,900 at FanDuel, and he’s not much better at DraftKings, at $5,600. But as weird as it sounds, given the total lack of power forward options today (particularly at FanDuel), Williams has to be considered.
6. This season, Karl-Anthony Towns is averaging 24.1 points and 12.3 rebounds per game, to go along with 34 percent shooting from three-point range; Kevin Love (in 2011-2012 and again in 2013-14) is the only player who has matched that line over a full season. On a day like today, where there are lots of other spots to feel good about paying up (Harden, Giannis, John Wall, Stephen Curry), Towns makes for a fantastic tournament play, particularly at FanDuel, where ownership tends to be higher towards the cheaper, value centers, such as…
7. Mason Plumlee, who has a 27.9 percent usage rate in the last two games as the starting center in the absence of Nikola Jokic; that’s around the same rate as Karl-Anthony Towns’s season-long usage of 27.4 (which ranks fourth-best in the NBA among centers). If Nikola Jokic remains out (as it appears he will, based on early reports), Plumlee is the plug-and-play chalk option at center in cash games.
8. Wilson Chandler has scored above 45 FanDuel points in five of the seven games in which he’s taken 20 shots this year. That’s a number that isn’t at all unreasonable tonight, given the uncertain statuses of Danilo Gallinari (questionable), Nikola Jokic (questionable), and Kenneth Faried (doubtful). Like Plumlee, he becomes an elite play if Gallinari, Jokic, and Faried are all ruled out.
9. Seth Curry has taken 12 shots and shot 53 percent from the floor in five consecutive games; the only player with a longer streak of such games this year is Karl-Anthony Towns (who has done it six games in a row on three separate occasions). Curry’s production has been down a bit over the last two games (25.7 and 27.9 FanDuel points), and his shooting numbers may not be entirely sustainable. But there’s little chance he falls off a cliff against the Nets, the team that ranks dead last in DvP against shooting guards.
10. On Thursday against the Lakers, Dirk Nowitzki had a historic game for more reason than one. The first (and most obvious reason) is that he became just the sixth player in NBA history to score 30,000 points. But in that game, he also became one of five players ever over the age of 38 to record a 25-point, 10-rebound game with better than 69 percent shooting. (okay, maybe they won’t print t-shirts for that one, but still interesting). Like Curry, Nowitzki is in a flow chart matchup against the Nets, and at FanDuel, where the power forward position is especially ugly, Nowitzki is in play against the team that, in DvP terms, is fourth-worst against centers and second-worst against power forwards.