10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful NBA Notes for March 11th
This NBA season, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that day’s slate of NBA games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.
I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about today’s NBA plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 NBA notes for Saturday, March 11th.
1. On Thursday, Jusuf Nurkic set career highs in points (28), rebounds (20), assists (8), and blocks (6). Since the 1984-85 season (the earliest StatMuse has game-level data available), that line has been matched just one time: Charles Barkley had a 31-21-9-7 line on November 18th, 1986. Nurkic’s game was no doubt an outlier, and we can’t expect him to duplicate it on Saturday. However, he’s scored 30 or more FanDuel points in all six games he’s exceeded 25 minutes for the Blazers, and we can expect him to reach 25 minutes in most games. On a FanDuel-point-per-minute basis, he’s trailing only DeMarcus Cousins, Anthony Davis, Nikola Jokic, and Karl-Anthony Towns among centers (min. 25 mpg), and neither site has priced has adjusted accordingly; FanDuel has bumped him up a modest $400, while DraftKings has lowered his price $300. Not sure if a player has ever been 100 percent owned in the big double-ups, but if ever there was a time…
2. Bradley Beal was once again on fire against the Kings last night, scoring 38 points (to go with a season-high 10 boards) and making five three-pointers for the 12th time this season; that’s just one fewer game of five or more threes than Beal has in the rest of his career, combined. He’s basically been the hottest shooter on the planet as of late, and Mike Gallagher shared this nugget on Twitter:
One word of caution: Bradley Beal gets injured every year, and now on the second half of a back-to-back after playing 43 minutes in an overtime game. However, the Wizards (for better or worse) have shown little concern for riding Beal: on zero days rest, Beal is averaging slightly more minutes per game this year (34.9 minutes per game on zero days rest, 34.8 minutes per game in all other situations).
3. Only twice this season has a player exceeded 60 FanDuel points against the Jazz. The players who have done it? Russell Westbrook and Russell Westbrook (he put up 70.2 FanDuel points on January 27th and 63.2 on Febuary 28th). Westbrook is also the only player to triple-double against the Jazz over the past two seasons, and he’s done it twice. The term matchup-proof gets thrown around haphazardly in DFS circles, but Westbrook might be the one truly “matchup-proof” player in the league, simply because of his insane usage. Case in point: five of the top usage rates by a player in a single month (min. 5 games and 30 mpg) belong to Westbrook, including his 46.4 usage rate this month, which is the highest in a month by a player since the 1984-85 season. With very little value on the early slate, Westbrook will be tough to fit in, but if you can make it work, he’s an excellent tournament play.
4. Ricky Rubio assists and field goal attempts have increased in every single month this season, and that has led to this:
This may not be the spot for Rubio, though, or at least not in cash games. The Bucks have allowed opposing point guards to reach 35 FanDuel points just 20 times this season; only the Grizzlies (17 such games allowed to opposing point guards) have allowed fewer.
5. 40.0, 28.7, 36.3, 40.1. Those are Willie Cauley-Stein’s FanDuel point totals in games this year that he’s seen more than 30 minutes of floor time. WCS’s minutes are rarely secure, but in a game where the Kings should need his length, athleticism, and defense to try and contain Nikola Jokic, he’s a good bet for a heavy workload on Saturday. He’s been at both ends of the spectrum against the Nuggets this year, putting up 29 points, 10 rebounds, and 40 FanDuel points in one game, while fouling out in 28 minutes and only managing 18.5 FanDuel points in the other. That volatility (plus the fact that he may come off the bench) probably makes him too risky for cash. But at just $5,200 at FanDuel and $5,000 at DraftKings, he could easily reach 8x his value if things break right, making him an excellent tournament option.
6. In the six games that Frank Kaminsky has missed this season, Marvin Williams is averaging 31.4 FanDuel points per game, 10 points more than his average with Kaminsky on the floor (21.4 FD points). However, the uptick in production hasn’t been the result of increased scoring or usage, both of which have been worse for Williams without Kaminsky on the floor (11.0 PPG without Kaminsky, 11.3 PPG with Kaminsky; 17.3 USG% without Kaminsky, 13.1 USG% with Kaminsky). The difference has come in the rebounding department. He’s reached double-digit rebounds in five of the six games Kaminsky’s missed (including a career-high 18 last night), compared to just three times in the 53 games he’s played with Kaminsky. Williams’s ownership will be a good test case for how likely DFS players are to chase points, as he’ll have a tough time reaching double figures in rebounds against in a terrible matchup against Anthony Davis, DeMarcus Cousins, and the Pelicans.
7. In 58 games this season, LeBron James has exceeded 60 FanDuel points in each of his last three games (not to mention putting up 58.6 FD points four games ago); that’s same number that he put up in 145 games combined over the 2014-15 and 2015-16 seasons. With all the potential value (read: Warriors bench players) available today, paying up for LeBron seems like a reasonable strategy, especially given the game’s high (for this slate) 215 total.
8. Kemba Walker has scored 25 or more points in four consecutive games against the Pelicans dating back to the 2014-15 season; that’s tied for his longest ever streak of 25-point games against any opponent (he’s put up 25 or more in his last four games against the Suns, as well). Stats that involve previous matchups against opponents aren’t the most reliable (it’s hard to believe that Walker scoring 27 in December of 2014 has much bearing on his game today), but the Pelicans have struggled to cover point guards for years, and this year is no different, as they rank 23rd against the position despite Jrue Holiday positive defensive real plus-minus (0.92). Walker may not be a core play today, but it’s difficult to envision him falling too far short of the 40 FanDuel points he’s averaged over his last 10 games.
9. In 343 minutes with Kawhi Leonard, LaMarcus Aldridge, Tony Parker, and Dejounte Murray off the floor dating back to last season, David Lee averages over 40 FanDuel points per 36 minutes. With the lack of available bodies for the Spurs, 36 minutes isn’t out of the question, making Lee a solid value play in all formats.
10. It’s time for a game of blind résumé! Take a look at the table below, where I list two players’ numbers since the All-Star break this year:
| Stat | Player A | Player B |
|---|---|---|
| O-RTG | 105.4 | 128.4 |
| FG% | 42.3 | 57.5 |
| eFG% | 49.7 | 69.5 |
| TS% | 54.5 | 72.2 |
| 3P% | 30.2 | 55.1 |
Player A looks like a marginal shooter, at best, while Player B’s numbers look otherworldly, like this guy could be one of the best shooters on the planet, right? Player A is Stephen Curry … one of the best shooters on the planet. Player B is his brother, Seth Curry, who is, to be fair, shooting at a clearly unsustainable level since the break. And while he’s certain to fall to Earth at some point, it probably won’t be today, against a Phoenix Suns team that ranks 28th in DvP against shooting guards and allow opposing guards to shoot 47 percent from the field (third-worst in the NBA) and 38.1 percent from beyond the arc (worst in the NBA). He may have jumped the shark at DraftKings ($6,800), but at FanDuel ($6,200), he feels extremely safe for cash games.
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Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ Daily Research Console, StatMuse, Basketball Reference, and NBA.com.
Check back for more “10 Notes” NBA articles throughout the year (typically posted on Mondays, Thursdays, and Saturdays), and feel free to drop a comment below if you want to talk about today’s slate of NBA games.