10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful NBA Notes for March 30th
This NBA season, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that day’s slate of NBA games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.
I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about today’s NBA plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 NBA notes for Thursday, March 30th.
1. In a huge game against the Warriors on Tuesday night, James Harden disappointed from a fantasy perspective (despite recording his 20th triple-double of the season), scoring 52.7 FanDuel points. But here’s the thing: he put up 52.7 FanDuel points on 25 percent shooting. That was just the fourth time this year that a player put up at least 52.7 FanDuel points with such a low shooting percentage (Chris Paul, Russell Westbrook, and John Wall also did it), and it’s the first time Harden had posted 52.7 FanDuel points on 25 percent or below from the floor. In other words, it was an abnormally poor night for Harden, yet he didn’t crush your lineup with that number. Against Portland, in a game with a massive 228.5-point over/under, Harden is the top raw points play on Thursday’s slate.
2. Here are the top five forwards in the NBA in FanDuel points per minute since March 23rd (min. 20 MPG), in descending order:
5. Giannis Antetokounmpo (1.20)
4. Paul George (1.25)
3. LeBron James (1.33)
2. Jimmy Butler (1.42)
1. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (1.48).
Here’s the crazy part: Hollis-Jefferson has put up 30 or more FanDuel points in each of his last for while shooting 33 percent or below in three of those games. His ability to fill up the stat sheet and score in a variety gives him a nice floor at the difficult-to-fill small forward position, and while the fact that he’s a Net will always make him a bit dangerous for cash games, on Thursday, he’s, at the very least, a low-cost tournament option.
3. Jusuf Nurkic took the #RevengeGame narrative to a new level on Tuesday, putting up 58.2 FanDuel points against the his former team. Nurkic, who was traded from the Nuggets for Mason Plumlee, now has three games of 50 or more FanDuel points in his 19 games as a Blazer; Plumlee, in 116 games for Portland, posted just one 50-FanDuel-point game. On Thursday, Nurkic faces the Rockets, who have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing centers, and he’ll undoubtedly be one of the most popular plays of the day.
4. One more Nurkic note: He is averaging 15.1 points, 10.5 rebounds, and 3.4 assists per game since the All-Star break. Those numbers are matched by only DeMarcus Cousins, LeBron James, Russell Westbrook, and Nikola Jokic over that span.
5. After posting 40.1 FanDuel points against the Hawks on Tuesday, T.J. Warren now has four 40-FanDuel-point games this month; in the rest of his career before March of 2017, he had…four games of 40 FanDuel points. Warren is priced well at FanDuel at $6,600, but at $7,500 at DraftKings, he may be tougher to fit in, particularly if Devin Booker (who is currently questionable) is back. But it’s a positive matchup (the Clippers rank 25th in DvP against small forwards), and the Suns have shown a willingness to play their young players a pile of minutes, as evidenced by…
6. Tyler Ulis, who has played 38 minutes in seven of his last eight games dating back to March 15th. The last rookie to have seven 38-minute games over an entire month was another Suns player, Devin Booker, who exceeded 38 minutes in eight games in March of last season.
7. The Los Angeles Lakers allow 47.9 points in the paint per game; that’s the second-most in the NBA, with only the Rockets allowing more (one more reason to play Nurkic on Thursday). Karl-Anthony Towns averages 13.8 points in the paint per game, the most of any player in the NBA. The Lakers have been generous to opposing big men all year, ranking 29th in DvP against centers. The blowout is a concern, with the Timberwolves being favored by 10.5 at home, and that makes Towns more of a tournament play on Thursday. But if you do roster towns in a GPP, be sure to get the added correlation by pairing him with…
8. Ricky Rubio, who has not scored below 30 FanDuel points in any of the six games in which Towns has exceeded 50 FanDuel points since the All-Star break this year. Essentially, if Towns has a big day, there’s a good chance Rubio will, as well. In fact, this happened just last Friday, when Towns posted a 51.6-FanDuel-point game thanks in large part to Rubio’s 15 assists. Rubio himself had 51.1 FanDuel points that day, and he averages 41 FanDuel points in five games against the Lakers since last season, his most against any opponent by a long shot (Brooklyn, who Rubio has averaged 36 FD points per game against, is next). Clearly Rubio has tournament upside, but he’s also cash-safe, particularly because of his increased focus on scoring; he’s attempted double-digit shots in 12 of his 13 games in March. For context, consider that he only attempted 10 or more shots in 20 games all of last season.
9. One more Timberwolves player to consider Thursday is Gorgui Dieng, who now has three straight 30-FanDuel-point games for the first time since the first three games of the season. It’s not only centers and point guards the Lakers give up tons of fantasy points to; they also rank dead last in DvP against power forwards. Dieng is never an exciting name to click (his 14.5 usage rate for the season is lower than Paul Zipser and Timofey Mozgov’s, which tells you all you need to know). But he shouldn’t have to work hard to return 5x value, and on a day with a few potentially elite pay-up spots (Harden, Damian Lillard against Houston, Towns, LeBron James against Chicago), saving salary at power forward could become a popular lineup construction as the day goes on.
10. In March, Kyrie Irving has a 34.2 percent usage rate; that’s the highest usage of any single month in his career. His price has come down ($8,800 at FanDuel, $7,900 at DraftKings), and the Bulls have been extremely vulnerable against enemy point guards this year, ranking in the bottom third of the NBA in DvP against the position. The Cavs’ recent struggles, coupled with the fact that Irving posted just 11.6 FanDuel points in his last game (his lowest in a game since February 21, 2016), suggest that he see lower-than-expected ownership on Thursday. For that reason, he’s an interesting under-the-radar tournament option.