2015 NFL DFS: By the Numbers
If you had a goldmine of DraftKings NFL Millionaire Maker data, complete with 500K+ ranked lineups and correlating points, what would you do?
Would you analyze it to identify commonalities, trends, and red herrings? Would you develop an optimizer to assess player values? Would you even acquire independent data to populate missing elements for a stronger, more complete picture? I would too. So I did.
Examining data for Weeks 1-13 of the tournament — if they provided all 17 weeks, they’d have to kill me — provided more than enough statistical significance to support a wealth of roster insights. Points necessary to be in the top nth percentile, weekly position value, and top 10 owned players per week were uncovered. A labor of love revealing a 2015 NFL DFS Season in Review.
We’ll start with NFL Millionaire Maker (Weeks 1-13) data highlights:
He Scores! (Weekly)
136:Average DraftKings score
253:Average TOP score
297:Average score for a perfect lineup
301:Highest score among all MM winners (Week 3)
348:Perfect lineup score in Week 3
1: Week that produced the lowest average score (97)
13: Week that produced the highest average score (167)
Money Talks
$47,441: Average salary for a perfect lineup
$78.86: Dollars per point Ben Watson produced in Week 6. That’s 31.7 points off a $2,500 salary, and this year’s top value.
Roster, Roster
519,408:Week 1 total rosters (most weekly rosters)
228,922:Week 13 total rosters (fewest weekly rosters)
Spotlight on Todd Gurley, Week 7
67%:Percentage of rosters including Todd Gurley for week 7. The highest percentage among all players.
$5,000:Week 7 salary
35.3:Week 7 points. He did not disappoint.
Antonio Brown, MVP
6:Number of times Antonio Brown appeared in the perfect lineup, the highest frequency of any player
49:Number of points he scored in one week, the highest points earned of all fantasy players
2:Number of weeks he scored 49 points (Weeks 9 and 15)
Check back soon for the following in-depth analysis to learn more from the exclusive data. I’ll explore:
1. Winning Scores: Your “perfect score” depends on which game you’re playing, GPP or cash. You going for the gold, or trying to beat 50% of the field?
2. Optimal Lineups: What’s the secret sauce to constructing the perfect weekly lineup? (And should you even bother trying?)
3. Positional EV: What positions offer the greatest expected value, and why?
4. Players of the Year: Which 2015 players excelled per performance, value, and popularity?
And so begins this series of articles to call your attention to the season’s most interesting data. I’ll dive into MM prize winning scores, top player values, optimal lineups, and more to educate you in the craft, excitement, and strategies of NFL DFS. And who knows, by considering trends and statistics from our most recent season, we may even hone your DFS skills, because history tends to repeat itself.