2021 NFL Betting and Fantasy Team Preview: Jacksonville Jaguars
I have no idea what it is going to lead to when it comes to wins and losses, but wooooo boy is it going to be fun to watch Jacksonville Jaguars games.
Urban Meyer? Sure! Let’s poach him out of retirement and see what he can do at the professional level.
Taking two Clemson studs in the first round? You bet! The Jaguars nabbed Trevor Lawrence at #1 and Travis Etienne at #25.
Tim Tebow playing tight end? Okay okay, maybe this is where we have to pump the brakes a little bit despite there seemingly being reports about Tebow’s play every single day.
But like I said, the entertainment value here is going to be off the charts. How will that translate to fantasy football and the gambling world? Well, let’s dive in!
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Jacksonville Jaguars Team Betting Preview
Win Total (over):6.5 (+105)
Games Favored:3
Games as a TD Favorite:0
Games as a TD Underdog:5
It’s hard to do worse than the 1-15 record the Jaguars posted last season. But that record also got them Trevor Lawrence in the building, which is probably why Urban Meyer is in the building too. And with them drafting Travis Etienne at #25 and signing Marvin Jones in the offseason, I don’t think it’s a hot take to say there is just more talent all around here.
Well, at least with the skill position players. The Jaguars have just the 23rd ranked offensive line per Pro Football Focus, and things are just as bad on the other side of the ball. PFF has their defensive line all the way down at 30th, their linebackers at 17th, and their secondary at 27th. Shootouts, anybody?
With a win total set at 6.5, clearly the oddsmakers are expecting this Jaguars team to be far more competitive than they were in 2020. And while I would lean towards taking their over at plus money on FanDuel (+105; it is -110 at BetMGM and DraftKings), I think I am going to piggyback off of our guy Dan Back and roll with Jacksonville at +700 to win the AFC South as my official pick. He lays it out perfectly in this tweet, so I’ll let him do the heavy lifting for me.
I have to agree with DB that it wouldn’t surprise me at all if the Jags catch lightning in a bottle here and make a run at the division in their first season with all of these guys together. The uncertainty with a few of the other teams in this division certainly helps, but they also have better players now. Of course, there is a pretty good team down in Nashville that might have something to say about it too.
PICK: AFC South Division Winner – Jacksonville Jaguars (+700)
Jacksonville Jaguars Team Projections Preview
Projected Offense Rank:25
Projected Rush Offense Rating: Average
Projected Pass Offense Rating: Weak
Projected Points Earned:371.25 (Rank 29)
Rushing Opponents:
Projected Difficult Rush Defenses Faced:5
Projected Soft Rush Defenses Faced:4
Passing Opponents:
Projected Difficult Pass Defenses Faced:6
Projected Soft Pass Defenses Faced:5
Team Defense Rank:26
Projected Rush Defense Rating:Below Average
Projected Pass Defense Rating:Below Average
Projected Points Allowed:429.5 (Rank 7)
Perusing the above statistics doesn’t exactly make you feel great about being heavily invested in Jaguars wins, but I think there is far more room up than there is room down. Trevor Lawrence obviously has the talent to catapult this group far higher than a “weak” passing offense, and hopefully Urban Meyer can help scheme around the below average offensive line that I alluded to earlier. The strength of this team could very well end up being in the backfield though, where talented rookie Travis Etienne joins Jacksonville’s workhorse from last season, James Robinson.
Jacksonville Jaguars Fantasy Football Preview
Noteworthy Depth Chart
QB: Trevor Lawrence – Underdog Rank: QB14 (ADP QB15)
RB: Travis Etienne – Underdog Rank: RB23 (ADP RB22)
RB: James Robinson – Underdog Rank: RB31 (ADP RB32)
WR: DJ Chark – Underdog Rank: WR27 (ADP WR34)
WR: Laviska Shenault – Underdog Rank: WR31 (ADP WR39)
WR: Marvin Jones – Underdog Rank: WR53 (ADP WR57)
TE: Chris Manhertz – Underdog Rank: TE32 (ADP TE1)
What’s New?: The Clemson Rookies & Marvin Jones
Trevor Lawrence is obviously the headliner, but the Jaguars also took Travis Etienne with the 25th pick. While Etienne figures to get his fair share of carries, the Jaguars also want to get him plenty involved in the passing game. As things stand now, we have his target share for this upcoming season at 14%. For comparison, James Robinson took in 12% of the team’s targets last season.
While the Jaguars moved on from guys like Chris Conley and Keelan Cole at wide receiver, they were able to bring in Marvin Jones to replace them. With the emergence of Laviska Shenault last season, those two guys combined with DJ Chark, Etienne, and Robinson should give Lawrence plenty of weapons to utilize in the passing game.
What’s Uncertain?: The workload at running back
Last season, James Robinson rushed the ball 241 times. The second most on the team? Dare Ogunbowale, with 32. Robinson’s reward for all of that work? The Jaguars took Etienne with the 25th pick in the draft.
So, how is all of this going to shake out? As I write this in early August, we are projecting Etienne for 31% of the team’s carries (567 yards) and 14% of the targets (85 targets, 484 receiving yards). As for Robinson, we are projecting him for 40% of the team’s carries (718 yards) and just 5% of the targets (33 targets, 181 receiving yards).
As you can see, both of these guys are getting drafted right in line with their Underdog Rank. And who knows, maybe they both end the season right around this range when it’s all said and done. I can’t help but think though that we see a clear winner here and a clear loser.
Top Fantasy Play(s): Trevor Lawrence, Travis Etienne, DJ Chark, Laviska Shenault