2021 NFL Betting and Fantasy Team Preview: New England Patriots
UPDATE: Cam Newton has been cut from the Patriots. Mac Jones will be the starting QB for Week 1.
I waited as long as I could to deliver this preview of the 2021 New England Patriots because of the uncertainty at QB. As of now, less than two weeks before the opening kickoff, the team has not formally announced that Mac Jones has unseated Cam Newton as the Patriots QB.
This seems like a foregone conclusion to the viewing public, who has observed the team handing Cam every single advantage including the majority of first team reps. Despite this, Mac has fairly objectively outplayed a very respectable performance from the former MVP Newton in comparable practice and game settings. It remains to be seen if he is given the job day one, but just know that the first round QB from Alabama has some serious upside and will probably be starting sooner than later.
Below, I’ll quickly review the situation for the Patriots, but be sure to check out all the great sports betting, fantasy football, and DFS content available on RotoGrinders leading up to kickoff. We’ll be covering fantasy football with rankings and projections, DFS preseason with RotoGrinders Premium, and sports betting at RG and ScoresAndOdds.
- Build nFL Lineups Like a Pro!
- Access to Content and LineupHQ
- Picks, Projections & More
New England Patriots Team Betting Preview
Win Total (over):9 (-140)
Games Favored:9
Games as a TD Favorite:2
Games as a TD Underdog:1
The juice on the over 9 wins is pretty telling at this point. The Patriots are a much better football team on both sides of the ball, having added weapons to the WR corps but more importantly the TE group. They also upgraded their RB position with a more dangerous RB2, Rhamondre Stevenson. I anticipate them getting back to the first era of Patriots dominance in which they controlled the game on defense and executed methodically on offense. I expect a lot of lower game totals for them as a result, though they probably will still get a lot of plays off via pre-snap pace.
Translating all that to win totals, I think they win 10 games but the margin for error isn’t very large. It’s the kind of thin margin that makes me want better odds than -140, and that’s where I’ll simply pass on taking a side here for the 2021 season. Expect them to be competitive and better than last year anyway.
+126 to make the playoffs is interesting though, since I basically like over 9 wins with better odds than are offered. If they win 10 games, then they are probably in the playoffs. To me, this is pretty close to the same bet as over 9 wins with much better odds. I put down a small sum on this outcome on Fanduel seconds ago.
New England Patriots Team Projections Preview
Projected Offense Rank:24
Projected Rush Offense Rating: Strong
Projected Pass Offense Rating: Weak
Projected Points Earned:388.25 (Rank 20)
Rushing Opponents:
Projected Difficult Rush Defenses Faced:5
Projected Soft Rush Defenses Faced:5
Passing Opponents:
Projected Difficult Pass Defenses Faced:3
Projected Soft Pass Defenses Faced:7
Team Defense Rank:8
Projected Rush Defense Rating:Strong
Projected Pass Defense Rating:Very Strong
Projected Points Allowed:386.25 (Rank 24)
I might have to revise my concept of weak to discuss teams like the Patriots passing game. For fantasy, it may be fairly weak but their opponent schedule may neutralized that. The production will be spread out among a number of contributors to make DFS selections complicated, but there should be instances where they are improperly overlooked.
The running game is going to be highly effective in my view regardless of the QB, and that will only further boost the offensive point production. I am going to call the Patriots offense under valued as a collective, but largely valued at cost individually. This knowledge is more useful in betting than fantasy, where perhaps markets will be slower to pick up on how much the Patriots have transformed since last season.
On defense, they’ve gained back some talent and improved where they could to become a possible threat again. Initially, I’ll be wary of them without trying to outsmart the projections in DFS. I’ll only want to be taking premier quality players with high value projections against them, and try to stay away from middle of the road options. The secondary was a bent out of shape last season, but they still seem to be very good at refusing to “break.” I expect more of the same in 2021, and big plays should be very hard to come by.
New England Patriots Fantasy Football Preview
Noteworthy Depth Chart
QB: Mac Jones OR Cam Newton – Underdog Rank: QB32 (ADP QB31)
RB: Damien Harris – Underdog Rank: RB22 (ADP RB28)
RB: James White – Underdog Rank: RB49 (ADP RB49)
WR: Nelson Agholor – Underdog Rank: WR51 (ADP WR62)
WR: Jakobi Meyers – Underdog Rank: WR67 (ADP WR69)
WR: Kendrick Bourne – Underdog Rank: WR84 (ADP WR107)
TE: Jonnu Smith – Underdog Rank: TE13 (ADP TE17)
What’s New?: Jonnu Smith was a major signing this offseason, as was the notably absent from above Hunter Henry. They now have the matchup nightmare restored that they once had with Gronk and “he who shall not be named” TE2. This is going to be highly problematic for opposing defenses, as these two athletic weapons can operate as blockers and explosive play threats at all times.
Nelson Agholor was also an offseason over-pay that they acquired to restore the threat of the deep ball, which he executed very effectively in Las Vegas last season. He has been a little dinged up in camp and continues to be outshined by Jakobi Meyers, but there have definitively been flashes of his explosive play ability in competitive drills. He’s an underrated signing compared the sentiment I sense around the industry.
Also not pictured above is rookie Rhamondre Stevenson. He forced the Patriots hand in trading Sony Michel with his play in camp and preseason games. He is one to watch, as I wouldn’t even rule out a late year ascension to top back status. He’s been playing that well.
What’s Uncertain?: The quarterback situation is the big one here. Even if they name one today, there will be questions:
Can Cam Newton return to MVP form?
Probably not, but he certainly has more left in the tank than we saw in 2020. If he is named the starter, I suspect he’ll be a player who can beat his props and early fantasy projections. Their last season schedule seems more difficult than the early schedule.
What if Mac Jones struggles when named the QB1?
The Patriots are methodical, and won’t hesitate to pull the plug if they need to. Cam played well enough in the offseason that they won’t fall into the trap of caring what the media thinks. Also, Mac Jones isn’t your average young QB. He won’t be mentally scared by such a move, and in fact it will probably only serve to aid his development. He has a Tom Brady like psychotic love of football and success.
What is Mac Jones Upside?
There is a lot I can say here about his dedication, preparation, and mental aptitude. I could mention his high pedigree and arm strength. I could detract and mention his lack of mobility. Instead, I want you to take away just one image: A Rocketship Emoji. I think he’s the real deal.
Top Fantasy Play(s):
Damien Harris: Cheap TD machine that will start the season as a fairly high usage primary back.
Jakobi Meyers: Target volume looks to be fairly rich compared to his draft price, which is ascending lately.
Jonnu Smith: A very cheap TE flyer for bestball that will have several weekly finishes well above expectation.