2021 NFL Super Bowl Futures: Sell the Bucs, Buy Washington & 49ers
The start of the NFL regular season is just a couple of weeks away and ultimately just one team will be crowned champion when all is said and done. This article takes a closer look at Super Bowl odds and which teams I think are worth investing in.
Super Bowl Futures
Kansas City Chiefs +500 – I am not going to spend much time telling you why a team that has been in the Super Bowl two seasons in a row (one win) is the favorite to win this year’s championship. The Kansas City Chiefs are a powerhouse and listed as -290 favorites to win their division and +250 to be AFC Champions. Already one of the top offensive teams in the league, Kansas City improved arguably their sole weakness in the off-season by bulking up their offensive line with the additions of Orlando Brown, Joe Thuney, and second-round draft pick Creed Humphrey. Overall, I am not in favor of betting NFL futures with this short of odds as there is basically no injury risk baked in, but I fully expect this Kansas City team to have a good season and advance to the Super Bowl as long as Patrick Mahomes is able to stay healthy.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +650 – Call me an ageist but there is just absolutely zero chance I bet on a 44-year-old quarterback to win the Super Bowl. To be fair, I would have said the same thing last year and been wrong, but at least you were getting better odds last season. This season Tampa Bay is listed as favorites to come out of the NFC and quite frankly the price offerings just aren’t appealing at all. I still expect the Bucs to be a strong team this season but I am much more interested in putting my money on a team with longer odds.
If Not Tampa Bay Or Green Bay, Then Who?
San Francisco 49ers +1400 – While I am mildly interested in the Buffalo Bills and the Baltimore Ravens at similar odds, I think there is more up in the air in the NFC and thus more value to be had on NFC teams not named the Tampa Bay Buccaneers or Green Bay Packers. Enter the 49ers who are slight favorites at +190 to win a competitive NFC West.
San Francisco underwhelmed last season with a 6-10 record but came up just short in 2019 with a 20-31 loss in the Super Bowl to the Kansas City Chiefs. Despite losing stud defensive coordinator Robert Saleh to the New York Jets, San Francisco should remain a well above average defensive unit – they finished last season with the 9th best defense according to ProFootball Focus’s grading system and ranked 2nd in 2019. Where they’ll need to see improvement is on offense and that’s where they invested heavily in this year’s draft, spending the third overall pick on Trey Lance and the 88th overall pick on Trey Sermon. While Lance hasn’t been named the starter yet, it seems likely it’s just a matter of time. Additionally, San Francisco will benefit from a healthy Deebo Samuel who started just five games last season.
A Longshot Bet
Washington Football Team +5000 – Defense wins championships…or something like that. I find myself oddly attracted to the WFT this season. They snuck into the Wild Card game last year with a 7-9 record and gave the eventual Super Bowl champions a run for their money despite starting Taylor Heinicke under center. Translation: yes, their defense was that good and it will likely be even better this season. In addition to what could potentially be the league’s best defense, Washington made improvements at the QB position with the signing of Ryan Fitzpatrick. They also signed Curtis Samuel to a three-year deal and potential star second-year RB Antonio Gibson now has a year under his belt and gave his toe some much-needed rest. Working against Washington to make the playoffs is a brutal out-of-division schedule (vs KC, @ GB, vs TB) but I like their chances of pulling an upset or two if they are able to get there. At +5000 there is enough meat on the bone here to hedge out of your bet for some guaranteed profit if Washington is able to make the playoffs.
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