2022 NFL Playoff Odds: Wild Card Weekend Picks and Predictions
And just like that, the NFL playoffs are here. The Packers and Titans have earned the right to show up fashionably late but 12 other teams begin fighting to stay alive this wild card weekend. Here’s a look at playoff odds, along with picks, predictions, and NFL betting tips for all six first-round games.
NFL Wild Card Odds and Schedule
Saturday
Las Vegas Raiders at Cincinnati Bengals -5, O/U 49 | 4:35pm ET
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills -4, O/U 44 | 8:15pm ET
Sunday
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers -8.5, O/U 46 | 1:05pm ET
San Francisco 49ers vs. Dallas Cowboys -3, O/U 51 | 4:40pm ET
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Kansas City Chiefs -12.5, O/U 46.5 | 8:15pm ET
Monday
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams -4, O/U 49.5 | 8:15pm ET
Super Bowl Odds
- Green Bay Packers +400
- Kansas City Chiefs +500
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers +850
- Buffalo Bills +750
- Los Angeles Rams +950
- Tennessee Titans +850
- Dallas Cowboys +1200
- Arizona Cardinals +2200
- Cincinnati Bengals +2000
- New England Patriots +2200
- San Francisco 49ers +2500
- Las Vegas Raiders +5500
- Philadelphia Eagles +6500
- Pittsburgh Steelers +9000
Raiders vs. Bengals -5.5, O/U 49
Following the controversial departure of Jon Gruden, Rich Bisaccia became the first coach since Wally Lemm in 1961 to lead a team to the playoffs after not being the head coach in Week 1. The Raiders ended the season on a four-game win streak, beating the Browns, Broncos, Colts, and Chargers. But the margin in all four games was a combined 12 points. Las Vegas also had a pair of three-point victories over the Cowboys and Dolphins from earlier in the season. Put it all together and the Raiders join the Steelers as one of two teams to enter the playoffs with a negative point differential, being outscored by 65 and 55 points, respectively.
That, along with the Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals’ ascendence, is why the Raiders opened as 6.5-point underdogs on Saturday. Burrow stringed together a pair of outstanding performances against the Ravens and Chiefs that inserted himself into the MVP conversation. He won’t win the award — that’s likely going to Aaron Rodgers or, possibly, Tom Brady — but he does look like a top-five quarterback in the NFL. Burrow, who sat Week 18, finished 3rd among starting quarterbacks in yards per game and the second-highest quarterback rating (108.3). Making the Bengals offense so difficult to stop is a plethora of weapons at his disposal — Offensive Rookie of the Year favorite Ja’marr Chase, receivers Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd, and running back Joe Mixon.
The Raiders, who were once +900 to make the playoffs, have come a long way since their 48-9 loss to the Chiefs in Week 14. They might’ve defied the odds then but don’t expect them to do so again.
- Pick: Bengals -5.5
New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills -4, O/U 44
From the NFL draft combine to the playoffs, it’s safe to call Mac Jones rookie year a success. Of course, Bill Belichick had something to do with that, too. In fact, it may be one of his most impressive coaching performances yet. The Patriots competed for the AFC East title with the Buffalo Bills but eventually fell short and settled for a wild card spot. But enough with the praise. The truth is, the Patriots are the most overrated team in the playoffs.
Sure the Patriots beat the Bills in Buffalo in Week 15, but context matters. Winds were gusting up to 55 mph, on top of sustained 25-35 mph winds, which all but nullified the Bills’ passing attack that makes up 60% of their offense. It took Buffalo only two weeks to avenge their loss, beating the Patriots 33-21 in New England as Josh Allen completed 30 of 47 attempts for 314 yards and three touchdowns.
While things could change over the course of the week, the weather on Saturday, Jan. 15, looks much more manageable for Allen & Co. than it did last time the two teams met at Highmark Stadium. As of Monday, winds are expected around 9 mph, with gusts up to 14 mph. Unless the forecast drastically changes, I expect the Bills to be able to lean heavily on Allen’s arm.
Yes, Mac Jones has been impressive enough to be in the ROY conversation. Still, the first-year quarterback has at times had issues with accuracy, throwing five interceptions in his last four games and completing less than 60% of his passes in two of those, including a 14-for-32, two-interception performance against the Bills.
Jones can’t keep up with Allen, at least not yet. This is my favorite pick for wild card weekend.
- Pick: Bills -4
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers -8.5, O/U 46.5
Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni did a hell of a job getting the Eagles to the playoffs, but their resume leaves much to be desired. Of their nine wins, not a single one was against a playoff team. Luckily for Sirainni there was no committee voting on which teams would get the final wild card berths.
It’s easy to look past their most recent loss, as the Eagles sat a handful of players due to covid. Their second-string was essentially playing against the Cowboys’ first-string unit for three quarters. What’s not as easy to look past is a 42-21 loss to the Cowboys when both teams were relatively healthy.
Fortunately for Eagles fans, the Buccaneers have their fair share of concerns, too. On top of Antonio Brown’s dramatic departure, Tampa Bay is dealing with injury issues on offense and defense. It’s part of the reason why the Bucs nearly lost to the Jets and were shut out by the Saints, the latter of which may have cost Brady the MVP award. The bad news for Philadelphia? The Bucs are set to get Leonard Fournette, Shaq Barrett and Jason Pierre-Paul back in time for Sunday’s wild card game.
The return of Barrett and JPP makes this a troublesome matchup for a team that runs the ball more than any other team in the NFL. When healthy, the Bucs put forth one of the best run defenses in the league, while a boost to their pass rush is sure to make Jalen Hurts uncomfortable whenever they decide to drop back. Philadelphia is 1-5 against the spread when facing 10-win teams. I expect it to be 1-6 soon, but my favorite bet in this game is the under. A stagnant Eagles offense will keep this from going over.
- Pick: Under 46.5
San Francisco 49ers vs. Dallas Cowboys -3, O/U 51
The Dallas Cowboys are a league-best 14-3 ATS, yet whether they are Super Bowl contenders or pretenders is still to be determined. Their resume isn’t as lacking as their NFC rivals, but there’s no doubt they benefited from some run-good in the injury department, at least as far as their opponents’ personnel goes. Just consider that the Cowboys haven’t beat a first-string quarterback since Matt Ryan, nine weeks ago! The Cowboys have some of the best playmakers on both sides of the ball, which is why their struggles, specifically on offense, are so baffling. The defense led by rookie Micah Parsons serves as the backbone of this team, but there are still some concerns in the secondary. For every Trevon Diggs interception, there’s a highlight of him getting beat deep. I’m not confident he can adequately slow down Deebo Samuel.
As inconsistent as this offense has been, I think things will click for Dak Prescott and his receivers. It also wouldn’t surprise me if offensive coordinator Kellen Moore unleashes running back Tony Pollard more so than he did during the regular season. Pollard is the more explosive back and seems to give the offense a major boost whenever his name is called.
The Cowboys play well here against a susceptible defense before Mike McCarthy inevitably drops the ball next weekend.
- Pick: Cowboys -3
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Kansas City Chiefs -12.5, O/U 46.5
It took a miracle for the Pittsburgh Steelers to make the playoffs, but they stayed alive for another week. Speaking of miracle workers, the fact that hte Browns haven’t had a losing season in one of the last three seasons, in the final years of Ben Roethlisberger career, is pretty remarkable. But coaching can only do so much against Patrick Mahomes, especially at Arrowhead.
Pittsburgh fans aren’t even naive enough to believe they can pull deliver an upset. The good news is Steelers bettors just need them to keep this one within 12 points to pay out.
The Chiefs should win decisively facing the league’s worst quarterback, according to PFF’s 2021 Bayesian Quarterback Rankings. Roethlisberger only found the end zone 22 times this season, and he’s thrown a pick in three consecutive games. The Chiefs, however, have been abysmal against the spread over the last two years, so I’m hesitant to lay so many points here. Tyreek Hill is also questionable, though Andy Reid anticipates that he’ll be ok to play. They can win without him, but covering the spread is another story.
Even with Hill healthy, Kansas City’s offense has been inconsistent throughout the season. I’d rather bet the under than sweat a backdoor cover from Ben in the last game of his career.
- Pick: Under 46.5
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams -4, O/U 51
Wild card weekend concludes with the first Monday Night Football game in playoff history, starring these two NFC West rivals. The Cardinals hold only a wild card spot, which could force them to play on the road for as long as their playoff lives last, but make no mistake about it — Kyler Murray makes this team a Super Bowl contender. Just look at their resume: kicked off their season with a 38-13 win in Tennessee, swept the 49ers, beat the Rams by 17 points in Los Angeles, and barely lost to the Packers, not to mention an encouraging 25-22 victory in Dallas two weeks ago. Overall the Cardinals sprinted to a 10-2 record before falling into a slump in which they lost five of their last seven games. Late season slumps have been a habit for Kliff Kingsbury-coached teams for as long as he’s been a head coach. Remember, the Cardinals were 6-3 through nine weeks, then lost five of their last seven games in 2021. Is this merely a coincidence or is there something more to it?
Of course, being without DeAndre Hopkins and JJ Watt certainly didn’t help the Cardinals finish the 2021 season strong. The Cardinals are hopeful that JJ Watt, who hasn’t played since exiting Week 7 with a shoulder injury, will return to practice this Thursday and have a shot to play in Monday’s wild card game. Watt’s return couldn’t come at a better time for a defense that allowed the fewest points per game and lowest QBR during weeks 1-7 and then dropped to 24th and 32nd in the NFL, respectively, without him. Unfortunately, there’s less optimism for Hopkins
As for Los Angles, the Rams are 2nd in Pass Success and 4th in Rush Succes, per Gridiron IQ. This offense can choose to attack Arizona’s defense on the ground or through the air, so long as Matthew Stafford shakes off whatever began plaguing him at the end of December. Stafford threw eight interceptions in his last four games — one fewer than his nine interceptions weeks 1-15. It’s fair to ask if Stafford might be dealing with some sort of injury injury, though he looked excellent completing 15-of-15 passes in the first half last week. Things went south during the last two quarters, as Stafford added only six more completions along with two interceptions. So what version of Stafford will show up Monday night?
I hope it’s the one we saw go 15-for-15. The Cardinals have inferior coaching, and I can’t convince myself to trust their defense. It’ll take an MVP-caliber performance from Murray, probably without his top receiver, to outduel the Rams. I’ll reluctantly lay the points.
- Pick: Rams -4
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