2022 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Golf Odds & Betting Picks

by Joe Cistaro (joeycis) Last Updated 2022-02-07 18:28:55

This week, Joe Cistaro breaks down the course and golf betting tips for the 2022 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Here’s a closer look at golf odds across online sportsbooks.

Luke List cashed our first outright of the season last weekend with a playoff win at the Farmers Insurance Open. List waited seemingly forever in the clubhouse with a lead that held after Will Zalatoris missed a birdie putt that will haunt him in his sleep. In the playoff, List threw a dart to about a foot to knock in a birdie and grab his first victory on the PGA Tour.

We were sweatless with both Zalatoris and List on the card after Jon Rahm was unable to join the -15 party on 18. Why can’t all golf tournaments end this way? Hopefully, we can parse a few more contenders this week and replicate the last few holes from the Farmers. Let’s start with the field and the courses.

2022 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Odds

At the time of this writing — January 31st — BetMGM Sportsbook posts the following outright odds. The below list features all golfers with odds shorter than 50/1.

Last season, the tournament was not a Pro-Am due to COVID-19, which meant for golfing purists, the tournament was significantly more watchable. This year, the hullabaloo attached to “celebrity” golfers will make Saturday’s round a tough ask for viewers. Expect very, very, very long rounds as the Amateurs plod their way around the course.

Patrick Cantlay is by far the class of the field with Daniel Berger returning this week to defend last year’s championship. Will Zalatoris comes off of a strong week at the Farmers and a modicum of disappointment after losing in the playoff to Luke List. Jason Day will fit right in with the slow play and is coming off of a really good week at Farmer’s that fizzled late. Jordan Spieth is interesting. He did not play well at Torrey Pines before leaving for the hospital with a stomach issue. Will Spieth turn his recent form around?

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Betting Preview

The Pro-Am will be played at three courses this week with a cut after the third round. Players will play the final round at Pebble Beach. The following are individual course details.

• Course: Pebble Beach (two rounds)
• Date: February 3 – 6
• Par: 72
• Yardage: 6,972
• Greens: Poa Annua

Last season, the Am portion of the Pro-Am was dropped due to COVID-19. This season, the three-course format returns and Pebble Beach will play host to two rounds. Every player will play each of the three courses and those that make the cut will return to Pebble Beach on Sunday. As golf fans are aware, Pebble Beach has played host to the US Open but will be set up for a Pro-Am. The course should be pretty easy with its only defense being coastal winds.

• Course: Spyglass Hill GC (one round)
• Date: February 3 – 6
• Par: 72
• Yardage: 7,041
• Greens: Poa Annua

Likely the most challenging — relative — test for players this week unless conditions get windy, Spyglass Hill Golf Club was not featured in last year’s event. A similarly easier course, players should not be challenged all that much. If the wind picks up, the tree-guarded Spyglass might yield the best scores.

• Course: Monterey Peninsula (one round)
• Date: February 3 – 6
• Par: 71
• Yardage: 6,957
• Greens: Poa Annua

The only Par 71 in the three-course rotation, Monterey offers two Par 5’s with eagle rates greater than 4%. If you are stacking Showdown contests in DFS, this might be the course to stack.

The primary focus this week will be SG: Approach as players will need to go low to contend. Par 5 scoring will be important as well as Par 4 performance between 350-400 yards. Players will play 14 holes approximately within that yardage range. I will filter putting on poa greens as well to see if any players see a bump in putting.

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Betting Picks

Maverick McNealy +2800 (Caesars)

I will not be the first nor the last person to bring up Maverick McNealy this week at Pebble Beach. A local, McNealy brings two top fives at Pebble Beach with him to this week’s event which many consider his likely venue for a breakout win. While “fade the public” is normally a sound strategy, I cannot resist putting Mav on my card.

McNealy brings a very, very well-rounded game over his last 36 rounds to Pebble Beach this weekend. Third in the field in strokes gained on Par 5’s, McNealy sits in the top 20 of most categories in consideration for this tournament. If we filter for just poa greens, McNealy is fifth in strokes gained. This is a course perfectly suited for his skillset with greens that he seems very comfortable on. Like List last week, I will not miss Mav’s first win on the PGA Tour. Let’s put him on the card this week at Caesar’s for a full unit.

Lanto Griffin +5000 (FOX Bet)

Lanto Griffin does not have the same skill set as the above Maverick McNealy but should ball-strike his way to success this weekend. Lanto comes in with fine form including a third place at the Amex and a strong swing season.

Last season, albeit with a different rotation, Griffin finished in the top ten at this tournament. With Griffin, as with many golfers, if he can hold it together around the green, we can be in for a big week. Griffin struggles a bit just off the green — a concern at Pebble Beach — but at this number in this field I am pretty comfortable with the risk.

If he strikes the ball well this week, Lanto will be in the running for his first victory. I will add him for a half-unit this week.

Tom Hoge +6600 (Bet365)

Now, we dig into some higher odds with some upside. Tom Hoge has flashed plenty of upside lately, resting in contention for victories twice over his last four tournaments. Has Hoge missed a couple of cuts as well? Sure. With an outright bet, though, we aren’t worried. The price at Bet365 is supreme with most other sports betting sites offering Tom at closer to 50/1.

The added boost in price surely mitigates the risk of Hoge not showing up. With a second and fourth over his last four tournaments, however, Hoge seems to be on the precipice of breaking through, as well. In the field, he ranks inside the top ten in SG: Approach, proximity from 100-125, and in opportunities gained. Barring wind, this tournament can turn into a festival of birdies. Creating plenty of opportunities, Hoge seems to be a good fit.

He has a bit of a mixed bag history at this tournament but finished 12th last season. If we can get a breakeven putting week, or better, Hoge will flirt with the top of the board on Sunday. We will spend another half-unit to add him to this week’s card.

Chez Reavie +10000 (FOX Bet)

This is clearly a pricing mistake that you should take advantage of immediately. Seriously, stop reading. Go! Now!

Chez Reavie is priced in the same tier as Tom Hoge and Lanto Griffin on most sites but is inexplicably 100/1 at Bet365. He hasn’t missed a cut at this event in four tries with a 16th and 2nd being his best finishes. Get him on your card now.

Reavie is an approach-game specialist, ranking fourth in the field in SG: Approach. He struggles with the putter mightily but sees a bit of an uptick when switching to poa greens. He made the cut last weekend quietly but could not put much together over the weekend.

At this rate, I don’t know why I am still typing. At this price, he makes for a fine 1/4 unit outright play and should be considered for top finishers because of his elevated odds. I will add him as an outright now and will consider using him as a Top 20.

2022 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Betting Card

2022 Profit in Units: +35.5 units

Follow me on Twitter at @JoeCistaro to follow along with any additions, matchups, or top finishers I add to my outright betting card. Good luck with all of your wagers this week and thanks for reading.

Image Credit: Imagn