NFL DFS Showdown Lineup Optimizer Values: 49ers-Vikings DraftKings Picks
NFL Showdown season continues with the 49ers at Vikings on Monday Night Football. Our expert analysts are breaking down DraftKings Showdown picks with our in-house NFL DFS lineup optimizer. Sign up for RotoGrinders Premium for full access to our NFL lineup optimizer and fantasy football projections all season long.
The dominant 5-1 49ers take on the desperate 2-4 Vikings in a game that I could honestly see going a bunch of different ways. With Christian McCaffrey questionable but expected to play, the49ers are obvious favorites. However, with oblique injuries, you never know when they may flare up again, so if he isn’t his usual self or doesn’t finish the game, I think Minnesota can make this a game. Deebo Samuel also out for SF is a big hit to their playbook, as you can’t just replace someone like him with McCloud or Bell, but Aiyuk and Kittle will have to step up and should be the clear top passing options (along with CMC). Justin Jefferson remains out for the Vikings, so we’ll see how Hockenson, Addison, and Osborn build off their win over the Bears last week as the top options for Cousins.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks: 49ers at Vikings Week 7
Currently, this game is sitting at a 43 total, with the 49ers favored by 6.5 points. The Vikings pass game is a clear target tonight as the Niners have one of the best run D’s in football, and MIN will likely be playing from behind most of the game. If CMC is active with no limitations, he’s a no-brainer smash play with the highest upside of any skill player, but there is a decent chance Shanahan mixes in Mitchell & Mason more than usual as both are more than capable backs, and the worst case scenario would be to further hurt CMC’s oblique.
Quarterback
Brock Purdy is coming off his worst game in a loss @CLE, with just 12 completions, 125 pass yards, and less than 9 FP. Tonight should be a good bounce-back spot against a 17th-ranked Vikings pass defense, but as the 4th priciest option, I don’t think he’s a must-play in cash games, especially without top YAC target Samuel. Purdy’s three worst games this year have all been on the road, so for me, he’s more of a GPP play with a limited ceiling being without one of his top WRs and a likely less than 100% CMC.
Kirk Cousins is also coming off his worst FP game of the season in a win @CHI where he had just 181 pass yards. If the Vikings want any chance to win, I think they let it loose through the air as I can’t see Mattison/Akers doing much damage against a 3rd ranked Niners rush D, so I’d consider Cousins a top cash game target. He’s also averaging 6 more FPPG at home this year, so I would find a way to get him in a flex spot at a minimum, and possibly even the captain spot on your main build.
Running Back
Alexander Mattison is extremely cheap at $6,600, but I’m still hesitant on trusting him in cash games against a defense allowing just 80.2 rush yards/game. If Mattison is going to do damage, I think it’ll be through the air as he is coming off a 4-28 receiving line on 7 targets last game, and he does have four straight games over 10 FP. I would certainly use him on any GPP lineup you build that doesn’t include Cousins for max leverage, while he’s a very TD-dependent cash game option that will need 4+ catches to likely come close to being an optimal play.
Christian McCaffrey said he “feels great” after Saturday’s practice, and all signs point to him being active, so I think we have to include him in our main builds as there just isn’t anyone else with his upside in a single game format. If you’re doing MME (mass multi-entry), I wouldn’t go overboard on him though, as there is absolutely a chance the 49ers protect his long-term health and give plenty of touches to Mitchell and Mason. Make sure to sprinkle a few lineups that include each of his backups, as it’s not 100% clear who would even get the majority of touches if CMC was limited or re-injured himself early.
Wide Receiver
It’s a big opportunity for Brandon Aiyuk tonight as the clear top passing option with Samuel out and CMC potentially limited. Aiyuk has seen 6-10 targets in every game, and I think he breaks his four-game streak without a TD, so he’s a must-play on any lineup that doesn’t include CMC in GPPs, and I would consider using both in cash games if you can. Jennings ($4,000), McCloud ($2,200), and Bell ($1,000) are the order I’d rank the other SF WRs, with all merely being GPP flyers for me.
Jordan Addison ($7,600) is just too cheap for someone with his ability and upside, and he’s averaging just under 15.5 FPPG in the four Vikings losses. Tonight’s game script should set Addison up for another 15+ FP outing, and he’s easily my favorite MIN skill player to target under $8k for cash games. KJ Osborn ($6,400) is another decent value option, but I don’t think he has the upside of Addison, as he’s yet to crack 50 yards in a game this year, and has surpassed six targets just once. I’d certainly include Osborn on plenty of GPP lineups you build with and without Addison stacked with Cousins, but for cash games, I likely won’t include him. Brandon Powell ($2,800) is similar to Jennings/McCloud for SF as boom or bust GPP fliers.
Tight End
Yesterday was National Tight End Day, and the top TEs showed up big time, and I’m expecting something similar from Hockenson and Kittle tonight. George Kittle ($7,200) is the inventor of the holiday, and even though he’s playing a day after its official date, you know he’s going to do everything possible to get in the endzone and show some funny t-shirt under his uniform to celebrate the occasion. He’s an excellent flex value for cash games, and I’d even captain him on a few GPP teams. TJ Hockenson ($8,800) has led the team in targets over the last two games, and he should be looking at an 8-target floor today with a great chance at a TD. He and Addison are easily my favorite Vikings targets for cash games, and like Kittle, I’d captain him on some GPP teams.
Defense / Special Teams
The Vikings DST has scored 17+ FP in two of their last three games, but those came against Chicago and Carolina, and against the second-highest scoring team in the league, I’d only consider them for GPPS tonight. The 49ers DST has held opponents under 20 points/game in all but one game this year, and have 10 interceptions along with 15 sacks. At $5,000, I think they make for a solid cash game value play to help fit in more expensive players.
Jake Moody ($5,400) will be looking to bounce back after missing the game-winning FG last week, and back in a dome I think he’s a great value option that should get more opportunities assuming SF isn’t as dominant in the redzone without Samuel. Greg Joseph ($4,400) is a decent option with a big leg, and if you need to fill a final flex spot for under $4.5k, I think he’s the best option.
Monday Night Football NFL DFS Strategy
I think the optimal builds will be 3-3 stacks that include at least one kicker, have just one of the QBs, and include Addison/Kittle. I’m honestly considering captaining Moody in order to fit CMC, Cousins, Addison, and Kittle in my main build, and would certainly do some GPP lineups with each kicker and the 49ers DST at captain with a variety of high-priced team stacks in the other flex spots.
DraftKings DFS Showdown Rankings
1. Jordan Addison – My favorite cash game play under $8k, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s the highest scoring player tonight as the top deep-threat likely playing from behind.
2. Christian McCaffrey – Assuming he’s active and his usual self, I just can’t see fading him in cash games as the highest upside player tonight.
3. Kirk Cousins – Definitely my preferred QB target over Purdy, and I think cash games should be started with him and Addison.
4. Jake Moody – He’s much better than what he showed last week, and back in a dome I think he has a solid 10 FP floor at a great price to help build an overall strong lineup.
5. George Kittle – It’s almost impossible to fit Aiyuk on lineups with Addison, Cousins and CMC, so Kittle is my favorite value SF player for cash games.
NFL DFS Lineup Optimizer for Monday Night Football
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