MLB Daily Grind Down: April 12th Part 3

by Kyle Koch (Jackandsoda) Last Updated 2013-04-12 18:38:33

LA Dodgers at Arizona

BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN
LAD BvP		LAD vs L		ARI BvP		ARI vs L
Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window

Pitchers

• Vegas has this game set at an OU of 8 and LAD the heavy favorites at -150. Clayton Kershaw has dominated in his first two outings and has yet to give up a run. He is more than capable of a GPP winning outing but I do not think you pay for him today. His road ERA from a year ago is a good 3.24 and his ERA at Chase Field is a likewise nice 3.65. While those numbers are certainly well above average, you need elite production from a player at his price range and I am not certain he is a safe bet. When I spend max money, it is so I do not have to worry. The numbers suggest he could give up 3 over 7 and k only 6. That will not be enough from him. Avoid

• Clayton Kershaw makes the average MLB pitcher look like he does not belong in the league. Patrick Corbin is probably a below average pitcher. He pitched okay in his first outing. His problems last year were on the road where he posted a 6.09 ERA. He was a full 3 points better at home with a 2.98 ERA. He has a 7.23 K/9 from a year ago. He faces a Dodger team that is batting well over the last game but I like the fact that he is left-handed and their two hottest hitters are also left-handed. Still, LAD as a team is batting .302 vs. Southpaws and should get a bump playing away from their pitcher friendly park. The shadow of Kershaw is too great and at -150 he is too big a longshot. I like him to pitch him tough but that is it. Avoid

Batters

• LAD as a team are batting .207 vs Corbin. At some point Matt Kemp is going to turn his season around. If he cannot produce tonight versus a left-hander in this park, then I will start to worry. If his price is right I say take him. Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez have been the Dodger’s hot bats. They draw a lefty but both have hit lefties pretty well this season so do not hesitate to use them today.

• ARI is batting .277 as a team and there is not a cold bat in their LU. They face a tough matchup today in a man who has held them to .202 BAA. A.J. Pollock hit 2 HR yesterday and is 1-3 vs. Kershaw. Paul Goldschmidt who normally kills lefties is only 1-11 vs. him. I trust his pedigree at home, though, and he will make it into one of my DFBC entries.

Houston at LA Angels

BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN
HOU BvP		HOU vs R		LAA BvP		LAA vs R
Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window

Pitchers

• Okay we get are give me of the night. The OU line for this game is a low 8 and LAA is favored at -200. That makes Tommy Hanson an automatic plug into your LU. The only argument against would be to fade because of the overlay. He ran into trouble vs. TEX in his last outing but the Astros’ order and the Rangers’ order is not comparable. He had a very good 8.30 K/9 last year and HOU has a 101 Ks on the season. It is not improbable that someone at his price range out pitches him but he has to make it into a good chunk of your LUs tonight. Target Twice

• Bud Norris is without a doubt the Astros best pitcher. Insert your own joke here. He got torched on the road last year to the tune of a 6.94 ERA. There is no way you can consider taking him tonight vs. this LAA lineup.

Batters

• Insert what I said about Matt Kemp here but replace the name with Josh Hamilton. Bud Norris has held Albert Pujols to a .192 BAA but Pujols is stroking the bat well so I think he is in play. Howard Kendrick has also step it up over the last few games. He should continue his hot streak tonight.

• Before you get high on the HOU bats look at who they faced in SEA over those three games. The song remains the same for the Astros, Jose Altuve and Justin Maxwell are the only guys you can consider and I do not recommend them because I have no faith in anyone behind them to drive them in.

Detroit at Oakland

BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN
DET BvP		DET vs R		OAK BvP		OAK vs R
Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window

Pitchers

• Detroit is the ever so slight favorite in this one a t-111 with the OU line placed at 8. Max Scherzer got laced in his first outing and faces an OAK team batting .292 on the season. He brings his road ERA 3.92 and sick 11.08 K/9 into the Coliseum where he was a 2.84 pitcher a year ago. Target

• DET as a team has a .328 BAA vs Bartolo Colon. He had a poor outing last time. The park will save him a few runs tonight but look for him to get hit around. Avoid

Batters

• Alex Avila is 4-5 vs. Colon with 2 HR. Miguel Cabrera is 5-10. I also like Prince Fielder to do well. Det as a team is batting is batting .313. The park might slow them down but it will not stop them. Load up.

• The ice cold Josh Reddick has the best numbers vs. Scherzer. He is 3-5 with a 3B. Jedd Lowrie, Coco Crisp, John Jaso, and Brandon Moss have been the A’s hottest hitters. If Max struggles it will most likely be to one of these players.

Texas at Seattle

BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN
TEX BvP		TEX vs R		SEA BvP		SEA vs R
Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window

Pitchers

• The OU line for this game is set at 6.5 with TEX a -140 favorite. There are real concerns about blisters on “Yu Darvish(player-profile)”:/players/Yu_Darvish-13412’s throwing hand but if the Astros’ starters can hold SEA down in this park then I have no concerns about the ranger. Darvish has huge upside facing a SEA team batting .220 on the season and .160 vs. him. Target

• Hisashi Iwakuma has pitched well in his first two starts on the road. He was a great home pitcher last year with a 2.49 ERA. The rangers have hit him well with a .313 BAA but those numbers came from his two starts in Arlington where he posted a 5.40 ERA. His K/9 is serviceable and he could be a sneaky play if Darvish cannot handle the ball. Too big of a gamble for me though Avoid

Batters

• I would not invest too heavy into the Rangers tonight. Ian Kinsler has good BvPs so do Adrian Beltre and David Murphy. Lance Berkman has swung the bat well as the DH and you have to like Lance to drop a few balls into that big outfield

• If you are going to take anyone from SEA then it should be a low dollar guy capable of hitting a HR and only on a GPP gamble. I cannot see SEA posting more than 3 runs tonight.

Colorado at San Diego

BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN
COL BvP		COL vs R		SDP BvP		SDP vs R
Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window

Pitchers

• The line for this game is 7.5 with SD favored at -110. SD sends Tyson Ross to the mound and he faces a COL team that batted only .241 on the road last year. He got pushed around by this team in COL but was able to make the right pitch at the right time to minimize the damage. The team batted just .176 against him that game but he also walked four batters. He is developing player who is too risky Avoid

• John Garland is another veteran pitcher that has gone to Coors Field to die. His ERA is okay but he does not get enough Ks to be a factor regardless if he gets the win. Vegas des not like him today Avoid

Batters

• Yonder Alonso is swinging a nice stick right now. His price is pretty cheap. Carlos Quentin is only batting .222 since coming back but 3-4 hits have been for extra bases. Could be a sneaky one two punch tonight vs. a below average pitcher.

• The problem with the Rockies players is that they do not produce at the same clip outside of Coors field but their price stays the same. They are playing this game in a pitcher friendly park so I think they are all overpriced. Someone will have a decent game but you will be paying too much for him.