MLB First Look: Thursday, July 3
Editor’s Note: Welcome to MLB First Look! In an effort to provide Grinders with more “night-before” MLB Research Content, we’re proud to announce MLB First Look by Top-Ranked Notorious. Unlike season-long where writers have months to prep before writing articles on draft strategy, the quick nature of Daily Fantasy’s player draft-pool turn-around makes completing entire research routines and writing high quality articles the night before challenging, and at times impossible. This column should help you glean insight and strategies to exploit as Notorious begins his research routine with you. Since it’s a new column, let us know your feedback in the comments!
MLB First Look provides you a quick overview of the most noteworthy DFS tidbits for tomorrow’s MLB matchups and player pools, and is brought to you by none other than Derek “Notorious” Farnsworth (#6 Ranked Overall, DraftDay MLB Champion, DSBC Finalist x3, DSBBC Finalist, DFBBC Finalist). Each night before weekday games (and occasionally weekends), Notorious will analyze the daily matchups and player pools to provide you with his initial thoughts on strategies for that day. The preview will begin with a starting pitcher overview, then move onto matchup notes, teams to target, player pricing, general strategy and more. Additionally, Derek will give you a quick recap of how his night in DFS transpired.
What I Learned Tonight
What’s up Grinders, it was an interesting Wednesday night of baseball. We saw the Red Sox and Cubs combine for 25 runs, another excellent outing from Cy Young candidate Adam Wainwright, and Gregory Polanco hit another HR on the Pirates’ way to a victory over the Diamondbacks. Thankfully, I avoided Brandon Workman tonight who was a very popular value play on a couple of sites. Hopefully all of you loyal ‘First Look’ readers managed to avoid that landmine as well. That about wraps up my review of Wednesday’s games, so let’s hop right into the pitcher breakdown for the action on Thursday night.
Today’s MLB Schedule
| TIME | AWAY | HOME | AWAY STARTER | HOME STARTER |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3:45 PM | St. Louis | San Francisco | Martinez (1-3) – 4.13 ERA | Bumgarner (9-5) – 2.90 ERA |
| 6:10 PM | Philadelphia | Miami | Kendrick (3-8) – 4.22 ERA | Hand (0-1) – 6.38 ERA |
| 7:05 PM | Arizona | Pittsburgh | McCarthy (2-10) – 5.11 ERA | Worley (2-0) – 1.74 ERA |
| 7:05 PM | Texas | Baltimore | Darvish (8-4) – 2.42 ERA | Chen (7-3) – 4.19 ERA |
| 7:08 PM | Tampa Bay | Detroit | Bedard (4-5) – 4.21 ERA | Scherzer (9-3) – 3.64 ERA |
| 8:10 PM | L.A. Dodgers | Colorado | Greinke (10-4) – 2.78 ERA | Morales (4-4) – 5.75 ERA |
| 8:10 PM | N.Y. Yankees | Minnesota | Tanaka (11-3) – 2.10 ERA | Hughes (8-4) – 3.58 ERA |
| 9:05 PM | Toronto | Oakland | Dickey (6-7) – 4.24 ERA | Gray (7-3) – 3.20 ERA |
| 10:05 PM | Houston | L.A. Angels | Oberholtzer (2-6) – 4.40 ERA | Shoemaker (5-2) – 4.50 ERA |
Today’s Noteworthy Research Findings
1) Starting Pitcher Overview
– Click the “$” icon to view a player’s price on each of the sites
At first glance, here are the pitchers that you should keep your eye on:
- Max Scherzer – There are only 7 games on tap Thursday night, but there are quite a few aces on the mound. Yu Darvish should be noted, but he has the toughest matchup of all aces on the mound and Scherzer is a much cheaper alternative. Scherzer is facing the Rays who are below average against RH pitching this season. He’s averaging 10.9 K’s per 9 innings and has struck out 21 batters in his last 2 starts combined.
- Masahiro Tanaka – Right now, I see Tanaka and Darvish as having similar upside. They are two of the best strikeout pitchers in baseball and should both pitch well. I’m giving the edge to whichever pitcher is cheaper on the site that you are playing on. Most sites have Tanaka as the cheaper option of the two so he’ll get the nod here. He’s facing a Twins’ offense that has a 21.9% strikeout rate against RH pitching.
- Sonny Gray – Gray has to be excited that the month of June is over. He had his worst month of the season as he posted a 5.40 ERA while giving up a .267 batting average to his opponents. I think he kicks off July on a good note as he faces a Blue Jays’ offense that is a much different team offensively away from the Rogers Centre. Gray is one of the biggest favorites on the board and he’s currently available at a discounted price.
- Phil Hughes – Hughes is looking like a terrific GPP play. After giving up a combined 10 earned runs in his last 2 starts, he will likely be far off the fantasy radar. That said, he’s enjoying a nice bounce back season with the Twins and he gets to face his former team (whose offense has left much to be desired this season). Everyone loves a revenge game!
2) Two Easy Teams to Target
- L.A. Dodgers – Ladies and gentlemen, we have a game in Coors Field on the schedule. While the Dodgers have struggled against LH pitching this season, they should have no problem putting up a big number on Franklin Morales and the Rockies. The total for this game is set at 10.5 runs and the Dodgers are sizable favorites. Stack away!
- L.A. Angels – It’s looking like a great night ahead for the L.A. teams. The Angels draw a very favorable matchup against Brett Oberholtzer as the Angels are ranked 2nd in wOBA against LH pitching this season. All of the RHB’s in this lineup are in play as well as Josh Hamilton who has actually hit lefties well this season.
3) Don’t Fear the Greinke
There are very few instances when you should target hitters against Greinke. Tonight just so happens to be one of them. While Greinke is one of the best pitchers in the National League, there are few pitchers that can conquer the elements of Coors Field. The total for this game is set at 10.5 runs for a reason. The Rockies are the #1 hitting team in baseball at home and are ranked 2nd against RH pitching this season with a team .341 wOBA. Trust the Coors Effect over the Greinke Factor.
4) wOBA Play of the Day: Scott Van Slyke
Yesterday’s wOBA POTD (Play of the Day) didn’t pan out as Mike Trout struggled mightily against John Danks. I have a feeling today’s wOBA POTD will more than make up for Trout’s subpar outing. Van Slyke has been crushing LH pitching this season to a tune of a .497 wOBA. He’s facing Franklin Morales who has given up a .406 wOBA to RHB’s. Not only is this a dream matchup for Van Slyke, but his price is cheap across the industry. Get him in your lineups people.
5) GPP vs. Cash Game Play
I won’t delve too deep into this subject as we have entire lessons on both in the GrindersU section of the site (which is terrific by the way if you are looking to improve your daily fantasy baseball play). I just wanted to stress the importance of knowing the difference between strategies because I’ve had a few questions about targeting certain players in a cash game lineup vs. a GPP lineup.
In a cash game, you shouldn’t be concerned with % of ownership, in fact, targeting the players that are expected to be highly owned is typically a good cash game strategy because those players are typically the “best” or “safest” plays of the night and you only have to beat out half of the field in order to cash. A GPP is a different animal though. In a GPP, you need players that are going to set you apart from your competition. In a GPP it can be very beneficial to fade the players that you know are going to be highly owned. Target players that are going to fly under the radar and have nice upside. And of course, don’t be afraid to employ the stacking strategy.
As always, thanks for reading and make sure to check out the MLB Grind Down tomorrow morning for a more in-depth analysis of each game.