MLB First Look: Monday, July 7th
Editor’s Note: Welcome to MLB First Look! In an effort to provide Grinders with more “night-before” MLB Research Content, we’re proud to announce MLB First Look by Top-Ranked Notorious. Unlike season-long where writers have months to prep before writing articles on draft strategy, the quick nature of Daily Fantasy’s player draft-pool turn-around makes completing entire research routines and writing high quality articles the night before challenging, and at times impossible. This column should help you glean insight and strategies to exploit as Notorious begins his research routine with you. Since it’s a new column, let us know your feedback in the comments!
MLB First Look provides you a quick overview of the most noteworthy DFS tidbits for tomorrow’s MLB matchups and player pools, and is brought to you by none other than Derek “Notorious” Farnsworth (#6 Ranked Overall, DraftDay MLB Champion, DSBC Finalist x3, DSBBC Finalist, DFBBC Finalist). Each night before weekday games (and occasionally weekends), Notorious will analyze the daily matchups and player pools to provide you with his initial thoughts on strategies for that day. The preview will begin with a starting pitcher overview, then move onto matchup notes, teams to target, player pricing, general strategy and more. Additionally, Derek will give you a quick recap of how his night in DFS transpired.
What I Learned Tonight
What’s up Grinders, I hope everyone had a terrific 4th of July. Per tradition, I was in one of the smallest towns on the face of the Earth visiting my loving, yet intrusive family. It was a great weekend, but I’m ready to get back to some MLB action on Monday. I’m sure everyone got their fix of fireworks this weekend, but I’m hoping the fireworks keep coming as I’m still searching for my first seat in one of these big baseball championships. I’ll certainly keep you updated as the week goes on.
Today’s MLB Schedule
| TIME | AWAY | HOME | AWAY STARTER | HOME STARTER |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7:05 PM | Baltimore | Washington | Tillman (7-4) – 4.21 ERA | Strasburg (7-6) – 3.53 ERA |
| 7:05 PM | N.Y. Yankees | Cleveland | Greene (0-0) – 0.00 ERA | Masterson (4-5) – 5.16 ERA |
| 7:10 PM | Chi. White Sox | Boston | Carroll (2-5) – 5.05 ERA | Buchholz (3-4) – 6.22 ERA |
| 7:10 PM | Kansas City | Tampa Bay | Shields (8-4) – 3.93 ERA | Odorizzi (4-7) – 4.18 ERA |
| 7:10 PM | Atlanta | N.Y. Mets | Minor (2-5) – 4.73 ERA | Matsuzaka (3-3) – 3.72 ERA |
| 7:10 PM | Chi. Cubs | Cincinnati | Jackson (5-8) – 4.99 ERA | Leake (6-7) – 3.47 ERA |
| 8:05 PM | Houston | Texas | Cosart (8-6) – 3.93 ERA | Mikolas (0-0) – 5.06 ERA |
| 8:10 PM | Philadelphia | Milwaukee | Hamels (2-5) – 2.98 ERA | Estrada (7-5) – 4.94 ERA |
| 8:15 PM | Pittsburgh | St. Louis | Morton (5-9) – 3.30 ERA | Wainwright (11-4) – 1.89 ERA |
| 8:40 PM | San Diego | Colorado | Kennedy (6-9) – 3.87 ERA | Matzek (1-2) – 4.25 ERA |
| 9:40 PM | Miami | Arizona | Koehler (6-6) – 3.48 ERA | Anderson (5-4) – 3.91 ERA |
| 10:05 PM | Toronto | L.A. Angels | Happ (7-4) – 4.38 ERA | Weaver (9-6) – 3.56 ERA |
| 10:05 PM | San Francisco | Oakland | Vogelsong (5-5) – 3.86 ERA | Chavez (6-5) – 3.23 ERA |
| 10:10 PM | Minnesota | Seattle | Correia (4-10) – 4.95 ERA | Iwakuma (6-4) – 3.33 ERA |
Today’s Noteworthy Research Findings
1) Starting Pitcher Overview
– Click the “$” icon to view a player’s price on each of the sites
At first glance, here are the pitchers that you should target in tomorrow night’s games:
- Adam Wainwright – Stephen Strasburg will also take the mound on Monday night, but he has a little bit of a tougher matchup as he has to face the Orioles. Wainwright on the other hand gets to face the Pirates who are right near the league average against RH pitching. Wainwright will look to build on his 1.89 ERA and 0.89 WHIP.
- Hisashi Iwakuma – Iwakuma was featured in the First Look in his last start and he pitched well with 7 K’s over 6 innings of work against the Astros. Tonight he faces a Twins’ offense that strikes out at the 8th highest rate (21.8%) against RH pitching this season. He also gets to face them in the pitcher-friendly Safeco Field.
- Mike Leake – Leake is a nice salary cap relief option if you are looking to stack your team with hitters. He is facing the Cubs who have struggled to score runs all season long. The Cubs are ranked 28th against RH pitching this season while striking out at a 22.0% clip.
- Jake Odorizzi – Odorizzi is looking like a terrific GPP play on Monday night. He has really pitched well at home with a 2.70 ERA and a K/9 of 10.9. While the Royals strike out fewer than any team in baseball, Odorizzi makes up for that with his high K-rate. He offers great upside for the price.
2) Two Easy Teams to Target
- Colorado Rockies – The Rockies are at home for another series in Coors Field (the most hitter-friendly ballpark in all of baseball). While Ian Kennedy has had a decent season, half of his start have been in Petco Park. He will have a hard time having that same kind of success in Coors. The Rockies are ranked 2nd as a team against RH pitching with a team .341 wOBA and are the top team to target offensively.
- Boston Red Sox – Even though Fenway Park is considered a hitter-friendly ballpark, there are few games played there that feature double-digit run totals. That speaks to the level of pitchers that are taking the mound in this one. The Sox are facing Scott Carroll who has given up 10 earned runs in his last two starts. Carroll has struggled with both LH and RH hitters and the Red Sox look like a great offense to target.
3) Jeff Samardzija to the A’s
In case you missed it with all of the 4th of July activities this weekend, Jeff Samardzija was traded to the A’s and made his first start on Sunday afternoon. Samardzija wasn’t phased by the trade at all as he held the Blue Jays to one run while striking out 5 batters over 7 innings of work. He should be a great addition to the A’s who already own the biggest run differential in all of baseball. In fact, the A’s have a run differential of 64 more runs than the 2nd best team. The addition of Samardzija could put them as front-runners to win it all this season.
4) wOBA Play of the Day: David Ortiz
As mentioned above, the Red Sox have an extremely favorable matchup against Scott Carroll, especially the LH hitter in this lineup. Carroll has given up a .397 wOBA to LH hitters this season while Ortiz is mashing RH pitching to a tune of a .350 wOBA. Ortiz is in play on all sites and could be a very sneaky play on a site that DS where he is listed as a DH. DH’s tend to go overlooked in daily fantasy.
5) 2014 MLB All-Star Break
Just a heads up that the MLB All-Star Break is almost upon us. For most MLB players, it is a much needed week of rest and relaxation. For most Grinders, it is one of the longest weeks of the year because we don’t have any other sports to fill it’s void. That said, it can be a nice break. Either way, we have a week of MLB action before the break, so make sure to make the most of this week!
As always, thanks for reading and make sure to check out the MLB Grind Down tomorrow morning for a more in-depth analysis of each game.