MLB First Look: Tuesday, July 22nd
Editor’s Note: Welcome to MLB First Look! In an effort to provide Grinders with more “night-before” MLB Research Content, we’re proud to announce MLB First Look by Top-Ranked Notorious. Unlike season-long where writers have months to prep before writing articles on draft strategy, the quick nature of Daily Fantasy’s player draft-pool turn-around makes completing entire research routines and writing high quality articles the night before challenging, and at times impossible. This column should help you glean insight and strategies to exploit as Notorious begins his research routine with you. Since it’s a new column, let us know your feedback in the comments!
MLB First Look provides you a quick overview of the most noteworthy DFS tidbits for tomorrow’s MLB matchups and player pools, and is brought to you by none other than Derek “Notorious” Farnsworth (#6 Ranked Overall, DraftDay MLB Champion, DSBC Finalist x3, DSBBC Finalist, DFBBC Finalist). Each night before weekday games (and occasionally weekends), Notorious will analyze the daily matchups and player pools to provide you with his initial thoughts on strategies for that day. The preview will begin with a starting pitcher overview, then move onto matchup notes, teams to target, player pricing, general strategy and more. Additionally, Derek will give you a quick recap of how his night in DFS transpired.
Today’s MLB Schedule
| TIME | AWAY | HOME | AWAY STARTER | HOME STARTER |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TIME | AWAY | HOME | AWAY STARTER | HOME STARTER |
| 7:05 PM | Texas | N.Y. Yankees | Martinez (1-6) – 5.10 ERA | Whitley (4-3) – 5.10 ERA |
| 7:05 PM | San Francisco | Philadelphia | Petit (3-3) – 3.86 ERA | Hernandez (4-8) – 4.22 ERA |
| 7:05 PM | L.A. Dodgers | Pittsburgh | Beckett (6-5) – 2.26 ERA | Worley (2-1) – 3.38 ERA |
| 7:07 PM | Boston | Toronto | Peavy (1-8) – 4.59 ERA | Happ (7-5) – 4.91 ERA |
| 7:10 PM | Miami | Atlanta | Turner (2-6) – 6.22 ERA | Minor (3-5) – 4.86 ERA |
| 8:05 PM | San Diego | Chi. Cubs | Stults (3-11) – 4.98 ERA | Hendricks (0-0) – 6.00 ERA |
| 8:10 PM | Cleveland | Minnesota | Salazar (1-4) – 5.53 ERA | Pino (1-2) – 4.39 ERA |
| 8:10 PM | Kansas City | Chi. White Sox | Chen (1-2) – 6.46 ERA | Carroll (4-5) – 4.19 ERA |
| 8:10 PM | Cincinnati | Milwaukee | Bailey (8-5) – 4.21 ERA | Nelson (1-1) – 5.40 ERA |
| 8:15 PM | Tampa Bay | St. Louis | Odorizzi (5-8) – 4.01 ERA | Wainwright (12-4) – 1.83 ERA |
| 8:40 PM | Washington | Colorado | Zimmermann (6-5) – 3.03 ERA | Flande (0-2) – 7.36 ERA |
| 9:40 PM | Detroit | Arizona | Porcello (12-5) – 3.39 ERA | Anderson (6-4) – 3.64 ERA |
| 10:05 PM | Baltimore | L.A. Angels | Gonzalez (4-5) – 4.04 ERA | Santiago (2-7) – 4.32 ERA |
| 10:05 PM | Houston | Oakland | Oberholtzer (2-7) – 4.50 ERA | Kazmir (11-3) – 2.38 ERA |
| 10:05 PM | NY Mets | Seattle | deGrom (3-5) – 3.18 ERA | RamÃrez (1-4) – 4.58 ERA |
– Click the “$” icon to view a player’s price on each of the sites
Tuesday’s Noteworthy Research Findings
1) Starting Pitcher Overview
At first glance, here are the pitchers that I like for tomorrow’s slate of games:
- Adam Wainwright – Wainwright is the top ace on the mound Tuesday night. Wainwright has been dominant across the board with a 1.83 ERA, a 2.53 FIP, and a 7.50 K/9 while only giving up an incredible 3.3% HR’s per fly ball. He shouldn’t have too much difficulty with the Rays who are one of the worst offenses in the AL. Plus, he gets to face them at home under NL rules.
- Mike Minor – Minor’s 4.86 ERA leaves much to be desired, but his xFIP of 3.61 suggests that he’s pitching a full run better than his ERA suggests. Minor is a big favorite against the Marlins who are one of the worst offenses in baseball on the road.
- Scott Kazmir – Kazmir isn’t the safest option Tuesday, but he certainly carries a ton of upside and there are few viable pitching options in the player pool. The Astros have actually hit LH pitching pretty well this season, but still strike out the most times of any team in baseball. Kazmir has an impressive of 8.2 and should rack up the K’s against the Stros.
2) Two Easy Teams to Target
- Washington Nationals – The Nationals didn’t quite live up to the 14 runs posted by the Red Sox, but they did put up 7 runs on the Rockies in the first game of their series in Coors. I’ll be heavily targeting them again against lefty Yohan Flande who has an ERA over 7.00 this season. Target all of the RH hitters in this lineup.
- Toronto Blue Jays – The Blue Jays are banged up, but are in a good spot against Jake Peavy at home. Peavy has struggled on the road in each of his last 2 seasons which is highlighted by his road ERA of 5.73 in 2014. The Rogers Centre is very friendly to LH hitters so don’t be afraid to use a few of them against Peavy.
3) wOBA Play of the Day
- Nelson Cruz – I could have easily put Adam Jones in this spot as well as both have been crushing LH pitching all season long. Cruz has a .453 wOBA against southpaws this season and is facing Hector Santiago who has given up a .326 wOBA to RH batters throughout his career.
4) Streaky Hitter Segment
- Neil Walker – Walker is one of the hottest hitters in baseball right now. Not only has he been red hot in the entire month of July, but he’s been extremely locked in over the last 7 days as he’s gone 7/12 with 2 XBH’s. He’s still cheap across the industry and should be batting cleanup against Josh Beckett.
5) Daily Dong Prediction
- Mike Trout – No HR for yesterday’s dong prediction as Jayson Werth went 2/4 with a walk. While that’s better than putting up a zero, it wasn’t quite what I was hoping for. Hopefully Mike Trout can put up a better performance. Trout is facing Miguel Gonzalez who has already given up 16 HR’s this season which is the 7th most of any pitcher in baseball. Trout, along with the other power bats of the Angels, have a great shot of hitting a HR Tuesday night.