MLB First Look: Tuesday, July 29th
MLB First Look provides you a quick overview of the most noteworthy DFS tidbits for tomorrow’s MLB matchups and player pools, and is brought to you by none other than Derek “Notorious” Farnsworth (#6 Ranked Overall, DraftDay MLB Champion, DSBC Finalist x3, DSBBC Finalist, DFBBC Finalist). Each night before weekday games (and occasionally weekends), Notorious will analyze the daily matchups and player pools to provide you with his initial thoughts on strategies for that day. The preview will begin with a starting pitcher overview, then move onto matchup notes, teams to target, player pricing, general strategy and more.
Tuesday’s MLB Schedule
| TIME | AWAY | HOME | AWAY STARTER | HOME STARTER |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7:05 PM | L.A. Angels | Baltimore | Weaver (11-6) – 3.36 ERA | Tillman (7-5) – 3.92 ERA |
| 7:05 PM | Seattle | Cleveland | Iwakuma (8-5) – 3.09 ERA | Bauer (4-5) – 3.93 ERA |
| 7:08 PM | Chi. White Sox | Detroit | Quintana (5-7) – 3.15 ERA | Sanchez (7-4) – 3.45 ERA |
| 7:10 PM | Washington | Miami | Strasburg (7-8) – 3.67 ERA | Alvarez (7-5) – 2.62 ERA |
| 7:10 PM | Toronto | Boston | Stroman (6-2) – 3.21 ERA | De La Rosa (3-3) – 3.54 ERA |
| 7:10 PM | Arizona | Cincinnati | Cahill (1-7) – 5.72 ERA | Leake (7-9) – 3.73 ERA |
| 7:10 PM | Milwaukee | Tampa Bay | Garza (7-7) – 3.87 ERA | Cobb (6-6) – 3.76 ERA |
| 7:10 PM | Philadelphia | N.Y. Mets | Hamels (5-5) – 2.72 ERA | Gee (4-3) – 3.49 ERA |
| 8:05 PM | N.Y. Yankees | Texas | McCarthy (5-10) – 4.49 ERA | Martinez (2-0) – 1.45 ERA |
| 8:05 PM | Colorado | Chi. Cubs | De La Rosa (11-6) – 4.19 ERA | Jackson (5-11) – 5.76 ERA |
| 8:10 PM | Oakland | Houston | Samardzija (4-8) – 2.80 ERA | Feldman (4-8) – 4.60 ERA |
| 8:10 PM | Minnesota | Kansas City | Gibson (8-8) – 4.19 ERA | Shields (9-5) – 3.58 ERA |
| 10:10 PM | Atlanta | L.A. Dodgers | Harang (9-6) – 3.31 ERA | Beckett (6-5) – 2.52 ERA |
| 10:10 PM | St. Louis | San Diego | Lynn (11-7) – 3.05 ERA | Ross (9-10) – 2.65 ERA |
| 10:15 PM | Pittsburgh | San Francisco | Liriano (2-7) – 4.18 ERA | Hudson (8-7) – 2.65 ERA |
– Click the “$” icon to view a player’s price on each of the sites
Tuesday’s Noteworthy Research Findings
1) Starting Pitcher Overview
The First Look nailed the pitcher picks last night with Yu Darvish, Jordan Zimmermann, and Bartolo Colon as the top plays. We’ll look to keep that going with the picks for Tuesday:
Jeff Samardzija – Samardzija faced the Astros in his last start and had no problem mowing through their lineup. He only gave up 1 earned run over 8 innings of work while striking out 6 batters. The Astros have more strikeouts that any team in baseball and they tend to swing at pitches early in the count. I could see a repeat performance from Samardzija.
Tyson Ross – Ross has been absolutely terrific at home this season. Granted, a lot of that has to do with the fact that his home ballpark is Petco Park, but we can’t knock him for pitching well there. He has a 1.89 ERA while averaging over a striking per inning pitched. He’s also held batters to a .188 batting average. He should be in for a nice outing against the Cardinals.
James Shields – Shields has had a nice month of July. He’s posted a 2.84 ERA with 33 K’s over 31 innings of work. He draws a nice matchup Tuesday against the Twins who aren’t afraid to strike out. He should see plenty of run support as well with Kyle Gibson on the mound for the Twins.
2) Two Offenses to Target
L.A. Angels – The Angels are my top team to target on Tuesday night. They are playing in a very hitter-friendly ballpark (Camden Yards) and are facing Chris Tillman who has an xFIP of 4.72. Tillman has pitched well at home, but his peripheral stats are likely to catch up to him soon. I think it starts Tuesday against the Angels.
Oakland A’s – The A’s were a bit of a disappointment last night against Brett Oberholtzer, but draw another terrific matchup tonight against Scott Feldman. They faced him a few days ago and put up 6 earned runs off of 9 hits in 5 innings.
3) wOBA vs. BvP Play of the Day
Round 2 (Monday, July 25th): Adrian Beltre (wOBA) defeats Giancarlo Stanton (BvP).
Scoreboard: wOBA 2 – BvP 0
Stephen Vogt (wOBA Play of the Day) – As mentioned above, I really like the A’s tonight. Vogt is my favorite wOBA play and he’s still pretty cheap across the industry too. Vogt has a .415 wOBA vs. RH pitching this season and Scott Feldman is giving up a .352 wOBA to LH hitters.
Jimmy Rollins (BvP Play of the Day) – Rollins has a great track record against Dillon Gee. He’s gone 11/22 with 3 XBH’s off of him in his career.
4) Stolen Base Prediction
Billy Hamilton – Hamilton is always a threat to steal a base and gets to face Trevor Cahill who has already given up 12 SB’s in only 50 innings of work this season. The light will be green for Hamilton all game so if he reaches first base, expect him to be running.
5) Daily Dong Prediction
Adrian Beltre – Beltre could arguably be the wOBA play of the day and the BvP play of the day. Beltre has a .381 wOBA vs. RH pitching this season and is facing Brandon McCarthy who he has hit well in the past. He’s gone 14/36 with 6 XBH’s off of him in his career. Beltre has been terrific at home all season long and he’s my odds on favorite to homer.