NBA Daily Salary and Value Analysis: FanDuel
One of the biggest challenges in daily fantasy basketball is having scope on the greater season-long picture while adjusting for the day-to-day changing landscape based on matchups, hot streaks and player salaries. Value is one of those changing variables, but looking at how often a player hits or misses value can help you become a more consistent daily fantasy player. I’ve broken down the first half of the NBA season with FanDuel salaries and daily outputs to find just how many times each player has reached, exceeded or missed his value target score.
Here are some of the guidelines for the data below:
- Minimum 25 Games Played
- Minumum 15 FPPG Average
- Value here defined as ((Salary/1000)*4)+5 or 4X+5
And here’s the legend for stats listed on this page and the all players page:
- GP – Games Played
- FPPG – Fantasy Points Per Game (FD Scoring)
- Avg$$ – Average FD Salary
- Avg$Pt – Average FD Salary/FPPG
- Value – Value calculated by using 4X+5 Formula or ((Salary/1000)*4)+5
- #Exc – Number of Games where Player Met or Exceeded Value
- #Less – Number of Games where Player Scored Less than Value
- %Exc – Percentage of Games where Player Met or Exceeded Value
- %Less – Percentage of Games where Player Scored Less than Value
- AvgExc – Average Amount By Which a Player Exceeded Value (in games where the player met or exceeded his value target score)
- AvgLess – Average Amount By Which a Player Scored Less than Value (in games where the player finished with a score lower than his value target score)
- High$$ – Highest Salary For Player on any given day
- Low$$ – Lowest Salary for Player on any given day
- Rng$$ Salary Range to this point in the season
The Best at Hitting Value
To this point in the season, only 6 players have met or exceeded their needed score to reach value on FanDuel in at least 50% of their games. Those players are:
| PLAYER | GP | FPPG | Avg$$ | Avg$Pt | #Exc | #Less | %Exc | %Less | AvgExc | AvgLess | High$$ | Low$$ | Rng$$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMarcus Cousins | 46 | 43.2 | $9,565 | $221 | 26 | 20 | 56.5% | 43.5% | 8.1 | -10.7 | $10,000 | $8,700 | $1,300 |
| Isaiah Thomas | 53 | 33.0 | $6,994 | $212 | 28 | 25 | 52.8% | 47.2% | 6.8 | -7.7 | $8,400 | $4,200 | $4,200 |
| DeMar DeRozan | 50 | 34.8 | $7,480 | $215 | 26 | 24 | 52.0% | 48.0% | 7.1 | -7.9 | $8,800 | $5,800 | $3,000 |
| J.J. Hickson | 51 | 26.2 | $5,751 | $220 | 26 | 25 | 51.0% | 49.0% | 6.1 | -10.2 | $6,800 | $4,700 | $2,100 |
| DeAndre Jordan | 55 | 33.5 | $7,318 | $218 | 28 | 27 | 50.9% | 49.1% | 7.0 | -8.8 | $8,300 | $6,400 | $1,900 |
| Anthony Davis | 44 | 42.2 | $9,370 | $222 | 22 | 22 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 9.0 | -9.6 | $10,400 | $7,600 | $2,800 |
| Al Jefferson | 44 | 38.8 | $8,648 | $223 | 22 | 22 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 8.4 | -10.1 | $9,800 | $7,900 | $1,900 |
This list is interesting because you have guys like Thomas and DeRozan that stand out as players who were underpriced for a significant amount of time during the first half of the season. This allowed them to rack up a larger number of games where they hit value. Then there’s a guy like J.J. Hickson who seems to still be in that category of underpriced for how well he has performed. At no point this season has Hickson’s price exceeded $7000, which is remarkable for a man hitting value in 51% of his games.
Disappointing Stars
Included below are the 5 worst players in terms of percentage of games where they hit value AND had an average salary on FanDuel of at least $7500 for the first half of the season.
| PLAYER | GP | FPPG | Avg$$ | Avg$Pt | #Exc | #Less | %Exc | %Less | AvgExc | AvgLess | High$$ | Low$$ | Rng$$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marc Gasol | 29 | 28.4 | $7,534 | $265 | 8 | 21 | 27.6% | 72.4% | 5.3 | -11.3 | $8,800 | $6,500 | $2,300 |
| Nikola Vucevic | 36 | 30.7 | $7,631 | $249 | 10 | 26 | 27.8% | 72.2% | 8.7 | -10.0 | $8,600 | $6,300 | $2,300 |
| Paul George | 52 | 36.3 | $9,092 | $250 | 15 | 37 | 28.8% | 71.2% | 7.0 | -9.9 | $9,900 | $8,100 | $1,800 |
| LeBron James | 50 | 44.8 | $10,976 | $245 | 15 | 35 | 30.0% | 70.0% | 7.5 | -9.1 | $12,000 | $10,200 | $1,800 |
| Mike Conley | 43 | 32.4 | $7,581 | $234 | 13 | 30 | 30.2% | 69.8% | 8.3 | -7.8 | $8,200 | $6,900 | $1,300 |
Marc Gasol makes sense based on the general FanDuel pricing model. Many sites refuse to bring an All-Star caliber player to an appropriate price despite his injury issues this season and a pretty consistent minutes limit. He has been overpriced for the majority of the year. The same could be said about Vucevic, although not to the same extent as Gasol and a number of Vuc’s bad games came where he was forced to leave early with an injury.
Paul George has been one of the biggest disappointments and his price doesn’t seem to be adjusted to an appropriate range for a guy whose fantasy value is far less than the value he adds to the Pacers. LeBron is a similar situation to George, with his salary being magnified by his name and not necessarily his performance on the season. Until the past week or two, LeBron has scarcely reached value as his stats have not been nearly as good as they were in years past.
The Most Expensive Options
Below are the stats for the 5 most expensive players, by average salary, through the first half of the NBA season on FD.
| PLAYER | GP | FPPG | Avg$$ | Avg$Pt | #Exc | #Less | %Exc | %Less | AvgExc | AvgLess | High$$ | Low$$ | Rng$$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Durant | 53 | 49.7 | $11,842 | $238 | 22 | 31 | 41.5% | 58.5% | 8.7 | -10.8 | $12,800 | $10,800 | $2,000 |
| Kevin Love | 50 | 47.9 | $11,090 | $232 | 23 | 27 | 46.0% | 54.0% | 7.4 | -9.0 | $12,000 | $9,800 | $2,200 |
| LeBron James | 50 | 44.8 | $10,976 | $245 | 15 | 35 | 30.0% | 70.0% | 7.5 | -9.1 | $12,000 | $10,200 | $1,800 |
| Chris Paul | 36 | 44.0 | $10,161 | $231 | 16 | 20 | 44.4% | 55.6% | 7.7 | -9.2 | $10,900 | $8,200 | $2,700 |
| Carmelo Anthony | 49 | 43.3 | $9,996 | $231 | 21 | 28 | 42.9% | 57.1% | 7.1 | -8.4 | $10,800 | $9,500 | $1,300 |
- None of the top tier options reached value in over 50% of games, but the a fore mentioned LeBron was far and away the most frustrating to use of all the guys listed here.
- Kevin Love and CP3 both managed over 44% value-exceeding rates, which were the two highest among the top 5 priced players over the first 3ish months of the NBA season.
- Love, LeBron and Durant all maxed out their salaries for the first 3 months at around or over the $12,000 mark but CP3 and Carmelo were a significant drop off, never exceeding even $11,000.
When They’re Good, They’re Great
Shown below are the 5 players with the highest average exceeded score. Average exceeded score is the average amount by which a player exceeded the target value score and only includes game where the player met or exceeded value.
GROUP 1: Players With Average Salary Greater than $7500
| PLAYER | GP | FPPG | Avg$$ | Avg$Pt | #Exc | #Less | %Exc | %Less | AvgExc | AvgLess | High$$ | Low$$ | Rng$$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwight Howard | 53 | 38.6 | $9,351 | $242 | 18 | 35 | 34.0% | 66.0% | 11.2 | -11.5 | $10,500 | $8,500 | $2,000 |
| Michael Carter-Williams | 42 | 35.4 | $8,243 | $233 | 15 | 27 | 35.7% | 64.3% | 10.7 | -9.9 | $9,200 | $6,000 | $3,200 |
| Josh Smith | 52 | 33.3 | $7,929 | $238 | 18 | 34 | 34.6% | 65.4% | 10.1 | -10.5 | $8,600 | $7,000 | $1,600 |
| Damian Lillard | 52 | 33.3 | $7,969 | $239 | 17 | 35 | 32.7% | 67.3% | 9.2 | -9.7 | $8,600 | $7,000 | $1,600 |
| Anthony Davis | 44 | 42.2 | $9,370 | $222 | 22 | 22 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 9.0 | -9.6 | $10,400 | $7,600 | $2,800 |
No surprise here that the guys shown above are some of the more volatile players in the NBA. They also have some of the highest ceilings. When Dwight Howard was able to reach value, he exceeded it by 11.2 fantasy points on average. Interestingly enough, Dwight also has the largest margin of missing value in games where he doesn’t reach his needed target score.
This also shows how difficult it is for the super high priced players to consistently exceed value by a large margin. With the LeBron, Durant etc range you are usually hoping just to reach value, rather than blow it out of the water. The $8K-$9K range seemed to be the most common range where players reached value.
GROUP 2: Players With Average Salary Less than $7500
| PLAYER | GP | FPPG | Avg$$ | Avg$Pt | #Exc | #Less | %Exc | %Less | AvgExc | AvgLess | High$$ | Low$$ | Rng$$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caron Butler | 32 | 19.0 | $5,231 | $275 | 7 | 25 | 21.9% | 78.1% | 13.1 | -12.5 | $5,900 | $4,400 | $1,500 |
| Chris Kaman | 28 | 19.6 | $4,621 | $236 | 8 | 20 | 28.6% | 71.4% | 12.3 | -10.4 | $5,200 | $4,100 | $1,100 |
| Joe Johnson | 47 | 22.9 | $5,662 | $247 | 12 | 35 | 25.5% | 74.5% | 10.6 | -10.5 | $6,400 | $4,900 | $1,500 |
| Terrence Ross | 52 | 16.6 | $4,044 | $244 | 11 | 41 | 21.2% | 78.8% | 10.6 | -8.7 | $5,400 | $3,500 | $1,900 |
| Terrence Jones | 48 | 25.4 | $5,719 | $225 | 21 | 27 | 43.8% | 56.3% | 10.3 | -12.5 | $7,500 | $3,500 | $4,000 |
- Chris Kaman hasn’t played a whole lot this season but he’s pretty good at beating the crap out of his value score when he gets it going. The same could be said about Caron Butler. Those two definitely fall victim to fluctuating minutes and difficult rotations, so when they do see enough time on the court they can exceed a deflated salary. Finding them enough playing time is a bit more tricky though.
- Joe Johnson and his season can be broken down by “with D-Will” or “without D-Will”. When Williams is absent, Johnson has been a different player which likely explains why his good games have been so much better than value.
When They’re Bad, They’re Awful
Shown below are the 5 players with the worst margin of missing value, in games where their final FP score was less than the target score needed for value. For example, if Rajon Rondo was $10,000 and needed 45 fantasy points to reach value but scored just 38, his margin of missing value would be 7 FP. This is then averaged out across all games through the first half where a player missed value.
GROUP 1: Players With Average Salary Greater than $7500
| PLAYER | GP | FPPG | Avg$$ | Avg$Pt | #Exc | #Less | %Exc | %Less | AvgExc | AvgLess | High$$ | Low$$ | Rng$$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwight Howard | 53 | 38.6 | $9,351 | $242 | 18 | 35 | 34.0% | 66.0% | 11.2 | -11.5 | $10,500 | $8,500 | $2,000 |
| Marc Gasol | 29 | 28.4 | $7,534 | $265 | 8 | 21 | 27.6% | 72.4% | 5.3 | -11.3 | $8,800 | $6,500 | $2,300 |
| Rudy Gay | 47 | 33.0 | $7,672 | $232 | 20 | 27 | 42.6% | 57.4% | 8.8 | -11.2 | $8,400 | $7,300 | $1,100 |
| James Harden | 45 | 37.5 | $9,349 | $249 | 15 | 30 | 33.3% | 66.7% | 7.6 | -11.1 | $10,300 | $8,200 | $2,100 |
| Kyrie Irving | 50 | 35.3 | $8,478 | $241 | 19 | 31 | 38.0% | 62.0% | 8.2 | -10.9 | $9,300 | $7,400 | $1,900 |
- As referenced in the previous section, Dwight Howard is a very volatile DFS option in terms of FanDuel’s ability to properly price him and his ability to reach or miss value. Also similar to the previous section, the players shown above tend to be more volatile.
- Gay, Harden and Irving in particular stand out as some of the typical ‘boom or bust’ plays from the 1st half of the regular season.
GROUP 2: Players With Average Salary Less than $7500
| PLAYER | GP | FPPG | Avg$$ | Avg$Pt | #Exc | #Less | %Exc | %Less | AvgExc | AvgLess | High$$ | Low$$ | Rng$$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreke Evans | 44 | 25.0 | $6,405 | $256 | 14 | 30 | 31.8% | 68.2% | 9.9 | -12.9 | $7,300 | $5,700 | $1,600 |
| Caron Butler | 32 | 19.0 | $5,231 | $275 | 7 | 25 | 21.9% | 78.1% | 13.1 | -12.5 | $5,900 | $4,400 | $1,500 |
| Terrence Jones | 48 | 25.4 | $5,719 | $225 | 21 | 27 | 43.8% | 56.3% | 10.3 | -12.5 | $7,500 | $3,500 | $4,000 |
| Ersan Ilyasova | 40 | 20.1 | $5,350 | $266 | 12 | 28 | 30.0% | 70.0% | 7.3 | -12.1 | $7,300 | $4,400 | $2,900 |
| Enes Kanter | 51 | 20.4 | $5,475 | $269 | 14 | 37 | 27.5% | 72.5% | 8.0 | -12.0 | $7,100 | $4,400 | $2,700 |
- Another group of inconsistent players who could be considered GPP specials for the second half of the season. Evans, Butler, Jones and Ilyasova in particular stand out as guys who are a common source of frustration or jubilation.
Hope you enjoyed the breakdown. I’d love to do this for all sites, but it’s fairly time consuming. My guess would be similar results would be seen on sites like DraftKings and DraftDay, whereas sharply priced sites like DraftStreet would have a smaller percentage of players reaching value and the overall spread of players hitting value would be more evenly distributed.