NFL Weekly Grind Down: Week 8 - Page 3

by RotoGrinders Last Updated 2013-10-24 05:01:07

NY Jets at Cincinnati

New York Jets						Cincinnati Bengals
Sun – 4:05PM ET						Paul Brown Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		6.5	41	17.25				-6.5	41	23.75
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	19.1	24	21	11		Offense	21.1	22	9	18
Defense	23.1	19	10	2		Defense	19.3	7	13	8
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Cincinnati	17	9	19	14		NY Jets	11	6	15	19
Rec. Targets	Total	Seas	Last3	Last1		Rec. Targets	Total	Seas	Last3	Last1
Hill	39	5.6	5.0	5.0		Green	78	11.0	9.0	8.0
Kerley	37	6.2	7.7	10.0		Sanu	34	4.9	3.3	2.0
Gates	24	4.0	4.0			Jones	26	3.9	4.3	6.0
Cumberland	20	2.9	5.3	7.0		Gresham	36	5.1	4.3	5.0

New York Jets

The Jets have yet to follow up a win with another win this season, and have scored 10, 13 and 6 points in their first three attempts to win back-to-back games. It’s been a case of ‘one-step forward, two-steps back’ for Geno Smith, and he’ll look to right that in Week 8 against Cincy. The Jets run game has been strong all season, ranking 11th in the NFL according to ProFootballFocus’s rush blocking stats, the Jets rank 29th in the NFL so that strong run game might be headed towards a dip.

Defensively, the addition of Mo Wilkerson has made their front 7 one of the best in the NFL. They get after the QB (3rd in the NFL in sacks per game at 3.4) and stop the run, allowing the 2nd least rush yards per game to opponents. Their pass defense is also top-10, but again ProFootballFocus has their pass coverage efficiency rating as the 4th worst in the NFL so that could be an area to exploit New York and find some contrarian plays for the Bengals.

Fantasy Relevant

• QB – Geno Smith is becoming a high risk/high reward daily fantasy play and has now posted 20 or more fantasy points in the Jets last three wins.
• RB – Ivory and Powell’s situation could get muddy as Ivory took 57% of snaps in Week 7 to Powell’s 24%. I would avoid this altogether until there’s a clear cut focus back.
• WR – Kerley saw 10 targets last week against a Patriots defense that ranked dead last against WR #2’s. Look for Stephen Hill (targeted 5 times last week), to get more involved in the pass attack this week as the Bengals are middle of the pack versus both WR#1’s and WR#2’s, but that was with Leon Hall. Santonio Holmes remains out for the Jets as well, so those two will continue to take the bulk of snaps.
• TE – Jeff Cumberland is listed as questionable but should play and was targeted 7 times last week. The biggest weak spot, in terms of defense vs. position, for this Bengals defense is the TE slot so Cumberland could be worth a look at the right price point.

Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals have won three in a row, in all sorts of fashions. They grinded out a low scoring 13-7 victory against New England, then followed it with 2 straight 27-24 wins over the Bills and Lions. They rank 22nd in scoring but their passing offense has been strong behind the A.J. Green and Andy Dalton connection, along with the emergence of a two-headed monster at TE with Eifert and Gresham.

On defense the Bengals rank 7th in the NFL in points allowed and ProFootballFocus has them 7th in overall defense as well. But the loss of Leon Hall last week to a torn ACL will certainly change the look of their pass defense. Pacman Jones at RCB and Terrance Newman at LCB will have to step up and cover for that injury.

Fantasy Relevant

• QB – Dalton has thrown for 300+ yards in back-to-back game and is still grossly underpriced on a number of sites. Given the matchup with the Jets who appear due to regress, I’d certainly consider Dalton as an option.
• RB – Bernard played 49% of snaps last week and Green-Ellis took 47%. The split cuts into the value of both heavily, but Bernard’s upside is much higher with his big play ability and PPR value.
• WR – A.J. Green has been a monster for the last 2 weeks, averaging 6 catches, 129 receiving yards and a score. Under the radar though is Marvin Jones, who has a TD in each of his last 2 games to go with 65 yards per game and 3.5 catches. He’s also been targeted 5 and 6 times in those games. (Note: Jones didn’t practice early in the week but is expected to play).
• TE – Gresham is still the go-to blocking TE for Cincy and can contribute in the passing game, as he played 91% of snaps in Week 7. Eifert seems to be in exclusively in passing situations but is efficient when in action. Both have good matchups against a Jets team that has allowed a few big games to tight ends this season.

Washington at Denver

Washington Redskins						Denver Broncos
Sun – 4:25PM ET						Mile High Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		13	58	22.5				-13	58	35.5
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	25.3	10	7	4		Offense	42.6	1	1	16
Defense	30.7	30	22	29		Defense	28.1	27	32	1
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Denver	32	25	29	25		Washington	25	30	27	16
Rec. Targets	Total	Seas	Last3	Last1		Rec. Targets	Total	Seas	Last3	Last1
Garcon	67	11.2	11.5	8.0		Thomas	58	8.3	6.7	9.0
Hankerson	33	5.8	5.5	5.0		Welker	62	8.9	8.7	12.0
Moss	32	5.2	2.5	2.0		Decker	64	9.0	9.3	13.0
Reed	30	6.0	7.5	9.0		Thomas	49	7.0	8.3	6.0

Washington Redskins

The over/under in this game is a ridiculous 58 points and that should mean a lot of offense from both sides. For Washington, it’s the return of Mike Shanahan that will take the headlines and it will be interesting to see if Shanny tries to control the clock with a heavy dose of Alfred Morris. As 13 point underdogs though, it’s more likely we’ll see RG3 forced to pass (the Redskins already pass on 60% of downs). Their passing offense is 7th in yardage this season, but Griffin has not topped 300 yards since throwing for 300+ in each of his first three.

Defensively, the Redskins rank near the bottom of the league in nearly every defensive category and now the suspension to safety Brandon Merriweather further depletes them. They will have their hands full with the Broncos. The Redskins are 25th against WR #1’s, but 6th against WR #2’s, so we may see a breakout game from Demaryius Thomas.

Fantasy Relevant

• QB – RG3 will likely be fighting to keep pace with Peyton and company, a job that has lead to some huge fantasy outputs for QB’s this season:

Luck – 38 P-Att, 228 PaYd, 3 TD, 30.02 FP
Henne – 42 P-Att, 303 PaYd, 0 TD, 12.82 FP
Romo – 36 P-Att, 503 PaYd, 5 TD, 44.94 FP
Vick – 27 P-Att, 248 PaYd, 0 TD, 14.012 FP
Pryor – 28 P-Att, 281 PaYd, 1 TD, 18.84 FP
E. Manning – 49 P-Att, 362 PaYd, 1 TD, 17.48 FP
Flacco – 62 P-Att, 362 PaYd, 2 TD, 23.48 FP

• RB – Alfred Morris is certainly in play, having rushed for 70+ yards in each of Washington’s last 5 games. He’s fairly consistent, but his ceiling is low.
• WR – Pierre Garcon continues to be targeted heavily, and is the only Washington receiver who can be trusted in cash games. For GPP’s, you can consider Leonard Hankerson as well, although he’s currently listed as questionable. If he sits, look for Aldrick Robinson to play a larger role.
• TE – Jordan Reed exploded last weekend (one week after I rostered him heavily against Dallas), and with Fred Davis no longer part of the picture Washington seems committed to getting him as involved as possible. He has a great matchup and should be considered in all formats.

Denver Broncos

The Broncos will be trying to bounce back from their first loss of the season against Washington on Sunday. Their offense speaks for itself, ranking near the top of nearly offensive category. The one concern would be how Peyton Manning looked after being hit by Robert Mathis, with most of his passes wobbling more than usual. This may all be extremely overrated though, as he still managed to throw the Broncos back into the game in the 4th quarter.

Defensively, the return of Von Miller didn’t help the Broncos as the Colts did whatever they wanted offensively. The defense is becoming an increasingly big issue as they are forced to be on the field more than most given the Broncos propensity to score quickly. They rank in the bottom third of teams in pass defense but have surprisingly allowed the least rushing yards per game. That seems more related to the big leads they’ve mounted though, forcing opponents to throw on nearly every down.

Fantasy Relevant

• QB – Not much to say about Peyton Manning. He’s a lock for 300+ yards passing (minimum) and 2-3 TD’s. He’s the best QB in football right now and is worth rostering if you can build a strong enough lineup around his hefty price point.
• RB – The Redskins are bottom 3 in nearly every single rushing defense stat, leaving a nice void for Knowshon Moreno to fill. John Fox can’t possibly send Ronnie Hillman out there too much given his turnover deficiencies, so it’s likely that we’ll see a heavy dose of Moreno.
• WR – The Redskins are 25th against WR #1’s and Demaryius Thomas could be the best of the Broncos receiving options this weekend. Decker and Welker are both always in play, as this offense is a constant threat to explode but sometimes predicting which direction that will take is difficult.
• TE – Julius Thomas has been terrific all season, and is certainly in play against a middle-of-the-road Skins defense ranking 16th vs. TE’s.

Atlanta at Arizona

Atlanta Falcons						Arizona Cardinals
Sun – 4:25PM ET						Univ. of Phoenix Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		2.5	45	21.25				-2.5	45	23.75
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	25.5	9	3	30		Offense	19.0	25	17	26
Defense	26.2	23	23	11		Defense	23.0	18	19	7
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Arizona	18	10	3	32		Atlanta	26	11	30	20
Rec. Targets	Total	Seas	Last3	Last1		Rec. Targets	Total	Seas	Last3	Last1
Douglas	34	5.7	5.5	7.0		Fitzgerald	58	8.1	7.7	5.0
Davis	2	0.2	0.5	1.0		Floyd	51	7.4	7.7	10.0
White	23	4.4	4.0			Roberts	36	5.1	4.3	8.0
Gonzalez	49	8.5	9.0	4.0		Housler	19	3.8	4.7	7.0

Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta may have the services of one of their marquee offensive weapons on Sunday, with Steven Jackson ‘planning on playing’, but WR Roddy White remained out of practice early in the week so expecting him to return seems unlikely. That would leave a receiving corps lead by Mr. Harry Douglas again who surprised many with his Week 7 explosion. The passing game looked OK despite the injuries in Week 7, and Matty Ice has still thrown 2 TDs or more in every game this season while surpassing 300+ pass yards in 4 of 6. On the ground, look for Jacquizz to still see a heavy dose of third down action with Jackson back, but much of his fantasy value will be diminished. Overall, Atlanta should be able to run the ball effectively more often with Jackson. They are currently 1st in the NFL with a 68% pass play percentage.

On defense the Falcons rank 23rd in PPG allowed and passing yards allowed. Their pass defense has been their achilles heel, having allowed multi-TD efforts against every QB they’ve faced this season and 3 300+ yard passers. They’ve also been torched by 4 100+ yard receiving games allowed.

Fantasy Relevant

• QB – Matt Ryan has been impressively consistent, and is the only QB in the NFL to post 16 or more fantasy points in every game so far this season. He’s an option against the 18th ranked defense vs. QBs.
• RB – The return of Jackson makes this rush attack too muddled for my liking. I’d avoid.
• WR – Patrick Peterson is a really good corner, and ProFootballFocus has him as their 12th best coverage CB in the NFL so far this season. He’s likely to take on a heavy dose of Harry Douglas, so expect him to be quiet this week. Beyond that, the Falcons are extremely thin at WR.
• TE – The Cardinals are far and away the worst team in the NFL against opposing TE’s. They’re allowing over 100 receiving yards per game to them and Tony Gonzalez has to be near the top of your lists this week for all games. Just look how other TE’s have fared:

Wk1 – Jared Cook: 7 Rec, 140 RecYd, 2 TD
Wk2 – Brandon Pettigrew: 3 Rec, 32 Yd
Wk3 – Jimmy Graham: 9 Rec, 134 Yd, 2 TD
Wk4 – Tim Wright: 5 Rec, 41 Yd
Wk5 – Greg Olsen: 5 Rec, 79 Yd
Wk6 – Vernon Davis: 8 Rec, 180 Yd, 2 TD
Wk7 – Zach Miller: 5 Rec, 40 Yd, 1 TD

Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals offense has been subpar to say the least, but Carson Palmer has thrown a TD pass in all but one game this season. They have a number of solid weapons at Palmer’s disposal, but the biggest concern will be stopping Osi Umenyiora from getting after the QB with an O-Line that ranks 25th in football and could be without starting guard Darryn Colledge. On the ground, Mendenhall continues to get more carries while Andre Ellington seems to do more with a smaller number of touches.

Defensively, the play of Patrick Peterson holds back most WR1 options (ask Anquan Boldin how much fun he had 2 weeks back). Their rush defense has been strong, allowing the 7th fewest yards per game and their biggest weakness has been against the TE position, where they’re allowing over 100 receiving yards per game.

Fantasy Relevant

• QB – Carson Palmer is a tremendous GPP play this weekend for a low price. He returns home with a few extra rest days following last Thursday’s game and the Cardinals are passing it 65% of the time this season (7th most in football). I love the matchup and the upside.
• RB – Avoiding all ARI running backs with the time split, Ellington has far more upside than Mendenhall right now though and will be more involved in the passing game.
• WR – Fitzgerald continues to get healthier and although the tough game against Seattle may dissuade some players, I think it adds to his GPP value even more since he’s likely to be a low percentage owned. If you are looking for value at WR, you can also consider Michael Floyd who has 5 or more catches in each of his last 4 games.
• TE – Rob Housler caught 7 balls for 53 yards last week, but for the most part the Cardinals tight ends are not involved in the passing game.

Green Bay at Minnesota

Green Bay Packers						Minnesota Vikings
Sun – 8:30PM ET						Mall of America Field
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		-10	46.5	28.25				10	46.5	18.25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	28.0	4	4	6		Offense	22.0	19	24	19
Defense	21.2	12	24	3		Defense	30.2	29	29	14
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Minnesota	27	32	25	24		Green Bay	23	5	23	29
Rec. Targets	Total	Seas	Last3	Last1		Rec. Targets	Total	Seas	Last3	Last1
Nelson	45	7.7	7.7	6.0		Jennings	43	7.2	10.0	10.0
Boykin	16	2.7	5.3	10.0		Simpson	48	8.0	8.0	9.0
Jones	29	5.8	3.5			Patterson	17	2.8	4.0	6.0
Quarless	9	1.5	0.3	1.0		Rudolph	40	6.7	10.0	9.0

Green Bay Packers

Rodgers taking on a divisional rival on Sunday night football should be a blast. On offense, Rodgers mans one of the best offenses in football, even when depleted heavily. Injuries to Cobb, Jones and now Finley have left the Packers plugging in the likes of Jarrett Boykin, Andrew Quarless and now Myles White who could see some time on Sunday. On the ground, Eddie Lacy has taken the reigns of the Packers rush attack and his ability to move the football has Green Bay passing on just 58% of plays (20th in the NFL). Over the last 3 weeks, that average is even lower with the Pack passing on just 52% of plays.

Flip the coin to defense and the Packers have successfully shut down their opponent’s best receiver every week since being torched by Anquan Boldin and Pierre Garcon in Weeks 1 and 2. Torrey Smith, Josh Gordon, the Lions without Calvin, and A.J. Green have all struggled. This could mean bad things for the return of WR Greg Jennings. The Packers rush D has been outstanding this season, allowing the 3rd fewest rush yards per game.

Fantasy Relevant

• QB – Aaron Rodgers is always fantasy relevant, especially facing a team that ranks 27th against opposing QBs.
• RB – Eddie Lacy is one of the top running backs this weekend for 2 reasons. 1) The Vikings rank dead last in the NFL against opposing RB’s. 2) The Packers are 9 point favorites so Lacy should see a heavy dose of touches in the 2nd half.
• WR – Jarrett Boykin is a tremendous value play and is coming off a huge week. He’ll likely run free against the weak MIN secondary. Jordy is definitely an option considering he’s the last big name the Packers have left but I do think Sherels will be able to contain him a bit.
• TE – With Finley out, Andrew Quarless will get the start but he’s primarily a run-blocking tight end. I’d fade this play until he proves he can be a viable option in the passing game.

Minnesota Vikings

We’ll start with the defense for Minnesota, which has been allowing nearly 30 PPG and ranks 29th in the NFL overall. They have massive holes in their pass defense but one bright spot has been Marcus Sherels who ranks 17th on ProFootballFocus’s coverage ratings for corners. He dropped a guaranteed pick six last week vs. the Giants and did a nice job on standout receiver Victor Cruz. Other than that, their secondary is an absolute mess.

Offensively, the Vikings will return to the man Christian Ponder who averaged just over 230 pass yards per game through his first 3 starts of this season. His targets for those 3 games went:

Jennings: 6, 6, 7
Simpson: 8, 5, 8
Rudolph: 4, 6, 8

He spread the ball around pretty evenly but the Vikings also featured a heavier dose of AP, who has carried the ball just 11.5 times per game over the last 2 weeks compared to over 20 attempts per game through the first 3 games.

Fantasy Relevant

• QB – Ponder isn’t in play on Sunday night football even though the Packers rank 23rd against opposing QBs.
• RB – Last season, AP went for 508 rushing yards in 3 games against Green Bay. He’s always in play, and his recent struggles might mean he comes at a discounted price tag this week. The Packers have been tough against the run though this season.
• WR – Jennings against his former team is intriguing but the Packers success against WR #1’s over the last 5 weeks has me concerned. I’d lean towards Simpson who had a monster 7 catch, 140 yard game in Week 1 with Ponder at the helm if you have to take a MIN wideout.
• TE – Last season Rudolph was Ponders go-to red zone target, and the Packers rank 29th against opposing tight ends. I would definitely consider him in play, especially if this game plays out like Vegas sees and the Pack have a big lead.

Seattle at St. Louis

Seattle Seahawks						St. Louis Rams
Mon – 8:40PM ET						Edward Jones Dome
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		-10.5	42	26.25				10.5	42	15.75
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	27.3	5	25	2		Offense	22.3	18	18	29
Defense	16.6	3	2	6		Defense	26.3	24	17	30
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
St. Louis	14	29	24	6		Seattle	3	4	6	4
Rec. Targets	Total	Seas	Last3	Last1		Rec. Targets	Total	Seas	Last3	Last1
Tate	46	6.7	8.3	7.0		Givens	40	5.7	4.3	2.0
Rice	32	4.6	4.0	4.0		Pettis	41	5.9	3.3	4.0
Baldwin	29	4.1	4.7	1.0		Austin	46	5.6	4.0	5.0
Miller	21	4.2	7.0	7.0		Cook	42	6.3	4.0	7.0

Seattle Seahawks

For the Seahawks it starts with their defense, who is currently Top-6 in the NFL in scoring, pass yards and rush yards. Richard Sherman is following up a spectacular 2012 campaign with another good season so far, ranking 8th in pass coverage according to ProFootballFocus. They’ve forced multiple interceptions in 5 of their 7 games this season as well.

Offensively, the return of Percy Harvin is on the minds of everyone in football as he could still potentially be activated for Week 8. Keep a close eye on that situation because if he goes, he creates a mess with the Seattle receiving corps and has some serious question marks of his own. They continue to be a run-first team though, rushing on 55% of plays (only 3 teams in the NFL rush more than they pass). Marshawn Lynch has 4 games with 90 rush yards or more on the season.

Fantasy Relevant

• QB – Russell Wilson has an average matchup with the Rams, and I think you could do better in terms of value on Sunday than a guy who has only thrown for more than 250 yards once since exploding Week 1.
• RB – Lynch is one of the premiere backs available this weekend against a Rams defense that has allowed 3 100+ yard rushers already this season and ranks 29th in FPPG-allowed to running backs.
• WR – Harvin makes for an intriguing GPP play if he is cleared, but if not look for Golden Tate and Sidney Rice to be low-upside plays.
• TE – Zach Miller played extremely well against a Cardinals team that is the league’s worst versus tight ends. He’s still a bit banged up but is probable to play and is averaging 1 red zone target per game so far this season.

St. Louis Rams

With Sam Bradford out for the season, the Rams will turn to Kellen Clemens. He hasn’t been a consistent starter since 2007 with the Jets when he attempted 250 passes and completed just over 50% for 1500 yards. They start a rookie RB in Zac Stacy who has been a bright spot for St. Louis but will have a tough matchup this weekend.

Defensively, they’ve been without the services of Cortland Finnegan since Week 5 and have allowed Justin Blackmon, Andre Johnson and Steve Smith to all have pretty big games. Finnegan has been practicing off and on, but would be a long shot to play on MNF. Their rushing defense has been atrocious, allowing the 3rd most rush yards per game on the season.

Fantasy Relevant

I’ll keep this short and sweet. With Kellen Clemens at QB and facing Seattle, you’d be throwing a hail mary to take any STL offensive weapons this week.