A Daily Fantasy Football Workout Plan
Recently Jay Caspian Kang wrote an article for the New York Times titled How the DFS Industry Turns Fans Into Suckers, where he described the industry as “near anarchy” and “corrupt”, and that because of those things, you don’t stand a chance against industry pros. He’s right about one thing. You don’t stand a chance, but the reason is much less complex. They’re better than you.
I don’t mean to oversimplify things, but they really are that simple. The reason the best players are the best is nothing more than the fact that they know more about the NFL or NBA than you. That sentiment isn’t ignored in the article, it’s just lost in a sea of technology-based fear-mongering and excuse-making. For instance, if you survived to the end of the article, you would have found this in the final couple of paragraphs.
“It does take skill to parse game film, diligently follow the news and interpret the thousands of bits of sports information that are generated each night. If a problem gambler at the poker rooms I frequent in New York City were to hire a programmer and flood the D.F.S. market with his lineups, he would almost certainly hemorrhage money.”
”Knowledge about sports will always be the main sorting mechanism for the types of dudes who play games like D.F.S., and there’s certainly nothing wrong — especially morally wrong — with putting some money on it.”
I’m not here to contest the fact that the highest volume players use software nor the fact that “bumhunting” exists. I am here to tell you its effects are vastly overstated. For instance, when the outcry over maxdalury arose, what did the software actually allow him to do? To quote the article, he “used a script that enabled him to adjust most of his 400 lineups in less than an hour.”
That is, when Channing Frye was declared a starter, maxdalury adjusted lineups to that news, taking out a player, inserting Frye into that roster slot, and using the extra salary space created to upgrade elsewhere. Is that something Jay couldn’t do, without a script? No. He could probably do it walking the dog, without breaking stride. How did maxdalury win that night, if he did the same thing everyone else was able to do, adjusting to news? He optimized the other players in his lineup, around Frye, because he’s better at this.
The article also called a climate with programs to enter lineups “near anarchy,” noting ”high rollers want to be able to use third-party computer scripts that will allow them to enter thousands of lineups at once, something that your average player cannot do.” So, instead of manually entering lineups, they want to join games with the same ease as someone who enters a single lineup. It seems in both cases, the script just levels the playing field, rather than putting the player with more lineups at a manual labor disadvantage.
How do either of these software capabilities, mass entry or mass edit, make the “shark” win? They don’t. The key winning component is them knowing more about the sport, and reflecting that knowledge in their lineups. That is, they win because they’re better. The scripts just make life more convenient.
(Full Disclosure – RotoGrinders offers these same types of scripts, mass entry and mass edit, for free.)
While you’re thinking it, entering multiple lineups isn’t an inherent advantage either, as long as you still have to pay for each one. Think of it like this. From your research and knowledge, there is an optimal lineup in your eyes. Every variant from that lineup gets further and further from optimal, according to your assessment. Pretty soon, in an attempt to “cover all your bases,” you’ve entered some pretty suboptimal lineups. Unless one hits a big score, you’re likely to lose money. Don’t take my word for it. Read here and here.
As to “bumhunting,” the only way this works is if you post contests, open to the public, and these “sharks” take your games. Don’t do that. That dovetails nicely into the other thing I’m here to do, to offer something of a “Workout Plan” to Jay. I’d like to give him some tips, serving as a “D.F.S. personal trainer,” to help him win back some of his $1,900.
THE JAY CASPIAN KANG D.F.S. WORKOUT PLAN
EXERCISE #1
Don’t say ”the ads got me.” You knew that people were more informed about sports than you, and you knew they would find their way in, just like you. Blaming advertisements is just an excuse, and you know it. No excuses.
EXERCISE #2
Keep playing your friends, head-to-head. That’s what this is for anyway, as you acknowledge when you say “it can be a fun, low-investment excuse to talk smack with your friends.”
I will add this twist, to make the exercise more advanced. Consider taking your friendly games offline.
The rake is high. Much higher than in sports betting, because you pay it whether you win or lose. In fact, you were factually wrong when you stated it takes a 53% win rate to overcome the rake. In daily fantasy head-to-heads, at least as they are currently constructed, it takes between 55% and 56% success to break even. (Starting at the $109 stakes, the rake is reduced.) Hopefully, the market will become more efficient after all the legal-issues and stigmatized articles blow over, and other sites will compete on rake percentage. Until then, email lineups to each other, track W-L, and pay in dinners (or PayPal).
EXERCISE #3
Stick to Football. It is the sport where Joe Blow has the best chance of beating Joe Pro, for several reasons. The first is simply a limited sample size. If someone has a 1% edge and plays long enough, that edge will eventually materialize. That’s the theory behind being a “grinder,” that you play until your small advantage puts you ahead. In football, with only 17 regular season weeks per year and one main slate per week, anything can happen.
A second reason why anyone can win in football is touchdowns. If you do enough google searching, you’ll probably find someone who argued that the baseball pitching statistic, the win, is responsible for the holocaust. Touchdowns have the same random, binary property. For instance, if someone has 99 yards receiving, he has 9.9 points on DraftKings, plus a point for every reception. His next 1-yard touchdown reception will be worth 10.1 points (6 – touchdown + 3 – 100-yard bonus + 1 – reception + 0.1 – yard). Touchdowns/milestones represent a disproportionately high slice of overall football scoring and are fairly random.
Also, injuries. The concussion protocol has exacerbated this even more. If even the most finely crafted lineup befalls a first quarter hit to the head, it becomes more susceptible than the Saints defense. No matter how professional your opponent is, no one is immune from them.
Lastly, it is an inherently random sport, where one person not doing his job on a play can completely subvert the efforts of the other ten players. That’s why nearly all games, even the most lopsided, have no more than a touchdown spread. Any Given Sunday.
All of this, plus the vast quantities of football information available publicly, makes this the sport with the least professional edge. They know more than you, and you can still beat them.
EXERCISE #4
If you play NBA, be available before tip. The lineup you make walking your dog might be excellent, but if you aren’t adjusting for late scratches (both removing the scratches and playing the replacements), then you won’t be profitable. It’s just the nature of the beast. This is one of the many reasons the cream rises to the top in the NBA more than the NFL.
EXERCISE #5
Don’t post head-to-head games. I feel fairly certain you weren’t “bumhunted,” despite the opposition you mentioned. Here’s how it works. Most players just go in and post whatever number of games they want at each price point, free for anyone else to join. The premise is that they believe they are good enough to take on all-comers, but there is a second reason. It’s logistically easier to post “x” number of games than to individually pick opponents’ games to join, and daily fantasy players can be lazy. If you want evidence of that, look no further than your one source, who couldn’t be tasked with changing out of a sweatshirt and gym shorts for his picture in the New York Times.
The way you ended up with the games you did is that once the actual sport starts, the site randomly matches up all of those posted, unfilled games. Because the “sharks” post the most games, that’s how you are most likely to be matched up with them.
EXERCISE #6
Bumhunt instead. I’m not suggesting you use a script or some other tool to find the newbies and beat them. What I’m simply suggesting is that you take other people’s games instead of offering your own, and discern a little in who you play. Maybe the better way to say it would be “pro-flee.” Don’t take the games of people you think might be better than you. Be weary of someone who has a huge number of games posted. Most importantly, examine the results. If someone beat you with players that you think were bad options, find them again for another game next week. If you edged someone out but their lineup looks strong, avoid them. Also, if someone wins the Millionaire Maker, take their games the next week. They probably partied too much, instead of prepping!
EXERCISE #7
If you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em. As you stated in your piece, many of the best daily fantasy players offer advice on their own websites/affiliates. Read them. You know they’ve got good information, if it’s been good enough to beat you.
EXERCISE #8
Don’t use anyone in a Rob Gronkowski jersey as the example to represent a broader group of people. That’s just good life advice!
EXERCISE #9
Don’t enter those huge-fielded tournaments if you want to make money, unless you want to make a lot of money. I hope you don’t think I’m being hypocritical, after describing daily fantasy as an obvious skill game where the best players win, when I say these gigantic tournaments are like the lottery. The reason is that you have to finish in the top-top, besting 100,000s of people, to make any significant profit. Over the long haul, yes, the elite players will profit, but as referenced above with football, that long haul requires many multiple seasons. In the short term, you’re likely to just lose.
There’s no better time than now to point out that these tournaments, the ones funded in part by ”a few high rollers” are the reason the ecosystem will remain fine, as long as it remains legal. People buy lottery tickets, knowing they’ll probably lose. People buy raffle tickets, essentially wasting money. When the chance to win life changing money is accompanied by the fun of creating a lineup and the thrill of sweating it out as the contests unfold, people will continue to come back. It’s an entertainment expense, with upside, and the “high rollers” are to thank for the upside.
EXERCISE #10
Get a new workout partner. Your source either didn’t disclose to you, or you chose not to disclose it to your readership, that he has a financial stake in a DraftKings/FanDuel competitor. Also, he’s very clearly using your article as a springboard to his own project launching soon. It only takes a cursory glance at the changes he has made to his social media platform to figure that out. His participation in your article is for his own benefit. Move on.
Great first workout Jay. Stick to the program, and we’ll have that bankroll back in shape in no time!