A Thank You Note To The DFS Pros
This happens to me every year. I think “Christmas wasn’t that long ago,” and then, surprise, it’s January 15th. “Thank You” notes are far past due.
I have a lot of them to write, including giving thanks for all Christmas gifts my family received this year. There are few others as well, including what will probably be my longest “Thank You,” to the daily fantasy professionals.
I know you might be thinking that Jay Caspian Kang, in his recent NY Times piece, let America know that these “pros” were making suckers out of all of us. Well, that’s not exactly right. To be exact, that’s just not right, as you will see.
Dear Fantasy Pros,
Thank you. I know you have gotten a bad rap of late. I, for one, am very aware of what you truly provide to the industry. I wanted to let you know that your contributions are not lost in this tiny corner of the internet. I appreciate it.
First off, thank you for the information. I know that the time it takes to produce all that written, audio, and video content on sites such as RotoGrinders.com is time you otherwise could be using to research. Instead of making yourself better, you have chosen to use that time to make others better. That’s very selfless, and I thank you for it.
I should add here that in addition to all the free content RotoGrinders offers, they also have free tools such as Bankroll Tracker, which inundates you with info about which sites, which games types, and which stakes are working best for you. They are also offering free access to their Incentives (advanced stats and opinions) just for signing up to one of these sites through their links. In an industry where no one can agree on anything, everyone agrees that the more knowledgeable you are, the better off you will be.
Anyway, back to the “Thank You” note:
Also, I want to thank you for all the money you have donated to these large-fielded tournaments. I am aware you were entering all those lineups selfishly, in a hope to take down that huge top prize. Still, you and I both know what actually happened. You lost, just like the rest of us did. Well, not exactly like the rest of us, as your losses totaled just shy of $1.4 million over just the last ten “Millionaire Makers”. Still, that has helped the industry greatly, so I would like to personally say thanks.
I guess neither Mr. Kang, nor his source Gabe, were in the loop about all this? Not very source-y. The “pros” lose in these big tournaments, just like everyone else. The field sizes just make it too much like the lottery. Here’s the data compiled by RotoGrinder Smurg:
# WITH 100+ | # WITH | # OF TOTAL | TOTAL | GROSS | NET | |
WEEK | ENTRIES | NET LOSS | LINEUPS | ENTRY FEES | WINNINGS | LOSS |
Wildcard | 43 | 40 | 9,414 | $188,280 | $103,760 | ($84,520) |
17 | 81 | 77 | 17,547 | $350,940 | $135,240 | ($215,700) |
16 | No Millionaire Maker | |||||
15 | 96 | 81 | 21,659 | $433,180 | $246,580 | ($186,600) |
14* | 523 | 497 | 107,271 | $321,813 | $179,624 | ($142,189) |
13 | 65 | 62 | 14,050 | $281,000 | $102,455 | ($178,545) |
12 | 84 | 72 | 19,008 | $380,160 | $261,900 | ($118,260) |
11 | 75 | 62 | 15,648 | $312,960 | $246,170 | ($66,790) |
10 | 93 | 87 | 19,269 | $385,380 | $189,955 | ($195,425) |
9 | 84 | 70 | 16,891 | $337,820 | $252,760 | ($85,060) |
8 | 80 | 72 | 18,384 | $367,680 | $253,130 | ($114,550) |
- * Week 14, the Millionaire Maker was only a $3 entry fee.
You’ll notice that nearly 92% of the time someone entered 100+ lineups over the last ten marquee tournaments, they lost. If anyone tells you that these tournaments are designed for “power players to rape and pillage regular players over and over again,” that person is probably just using inflammatory language to draw eyes to himself and his own self-gain. He’s also wrong. Flatly.
Back to the note.
I know that some of you use computer programs (“scripts”). While the public thinks these programs are getting you inside the head of Bill Belichick, informing you whether he is going to pass or run from the five-yard line, we know the programs just help you generate, enter, and edit all those lineups. If you’re going to donate that much to the daily fantasy sports ecosystem, far be it from me to look down on you doing it efficiently. Thanks for making these huge tournaments possible.
People say they want “single-entry” tournaments, as opposed to these gigantic tournaments, funded largely through mass multi-entry. That’s what they say. Then, you look at the numbers. In Week 15, the $20 buy-in Millionaire Maker had 265,914 entries, good for over $5,300,000 in entry fees. In Week 16, there was no Millionaire Maker. How did the $27 single-entry “Blind Side” do that week? It had 1,702 entrants and just under $46,000 in entry fees. People say they don’t like mass multi-entry tournaments, just like they say they don’t like Taylor Swift or porn, but in all three cases, the numbers say they do.
Frankly, when you note the hysteria over the lottery the last week, it shouldn’t be a surprise. People know they are underdogs playing daily fantasy sports, but they think they’re good enough to have a chance.
When you layer on top of that, the fun of creating a lineup and the fun in sweating it as the games unfold, it’s no wonder tournaments like the Millionaire Maker are so popular. People are willing waste money on lotto tickets after all, just for the fun of scratching off some foil with the edge of a coin!
I’m digressing.
Even when you win, and I know you do win, you help us out. At the stakes you play, the rake money you generate for the sites is stupefying. The money is especially helpful right now, as these sites are fighting a land war in Asia, lobbying in every state and federally, simultaneously. Thanks for helping fund the cause.
As an example, consider week 16. Instead of running a Millionaire Maker tournament, DraftKings ran the “Main Event.” It was a $1,500 buy-in tournament, with $4 million in total prizes and $1 million to first. After all 2,960 had bought in, it resulted in a $440,000 rake. That’s nearly half a million dollars, in one tournament, these high stakes guys contributed to the cause.
We know from the McKinsey study cited in Kang’s piece that during the first half of the 2015 MLB season, 91% of prize money was won by 1.3% of players. The reason for that disparity is not that the “pros” are taking the amateurs’ money. It’s that the “pros” are playing each other for such nose-bleed stakes that the average player’s winnings pale in comparison. All of that action generates revenue for the site, which helps cover the legal expenses all the low-stakes players enjoy. In other words …
Lastly, I want to thank you for the role you play as ambassadors. It’s easy to roll your eyes at this, but the fact remains that America loves peeking in the window. That’s true whether it’s the cottage industry of celebrities’ lives (US Weekly), the soap opera of sports, off the field (Sports Talk Radio), or the way “Big Names” draw ratings on poker television. By being assessable on Twitter and giving the masses someone on the leader boards to root for (or against), it helps the game. Thank you for that as well.
Yours,
Luke
There. Now that I’ve got that one done, let’s talk about a few value plays for this divisional round.
STEVEN JACKSON, $3,300 VS KC – These are facts:
1) In a short slate, it becomes harder and harder to differentiate your lineup.
2) The running back position, as a whole, stinks this year.
3) James White has had four carries in a game this season as many times as Alan Rickman. (RIP Snape!)
As punt plays go, this one gives you real salary savings and surprisingly high upside. No other running back committee member on the slate has the potential for 25+ carries, but that is just what the Patriots will do, if it’s working. See this game, this game, and this game as examples.
Also, we all know that guessing at what Belichick is thinking is a fool’s errand. When he flat out tells us though, has he often lied? After their Week 17 tilt with Miami, he was effusive in his praise of Jackson. Among other things, he said Jackson has soft hands and can help on all three downs. Could we see Jackson catch a couple Brady balls? Very possible. He’s also the biggest guy in the stable, so a short touchdown is a very believable outcome.
Then there’s the dream. When New England completes a pass down to the goal line and hurries to the line to get another snap off, good things tend to happen for running backs. Basically this:
JARED ABBREDERIS, $3,000 AT ARI – As Adam Levitan pointed out on Twitter, the six best pass defenses in the NFL, according to DVOA, are among the eight teams still alive in these playoffs. That is, there aren’t a lot of easy spots for wide receivers in this slate.
The slot against Arizona is one of the better ones, now that the Tyrann Mathieu is on the injured reserve. Abbrederis, a walk-on from Wisconsin, slots into just that slot, now that Davante Adams is unlikely to suit up.
In a week where Oscar nominations were announced, if you’re looking for salary relief, look no further than one of the great pictures of our time, Half Baked, and say to yourself “Abbrecadabra B. Abbrecadabra.”