Advanced Stats Pitching Charts - Wed 6/18
We’re going to try something different today. You may wonder how something is all that different when there’s hardly been a routine established after just 2 days, but the Wednesday schedule makes the change necessary. With a 12:10 EST start time, for the benefit of those who would choose to play day games, I’ll post just the charts early without notes. I’ll add notes for the night games later. I’ve already cleared this with the brass and they think it’s a wonderful idea. Or at least Cam said ok.
I’ll be off tomorrow and return Friday. Check back this afternoon for pitcher notes to be added on evening games.
EDIT: PITCHER NOTES NOW ADDED BELOW
Most of the stats in these charts are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats I use in these charts.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
For those already familiar with the charts, the only recent change was switching from Fangraphs to Seamheads.com 3 year park factors. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. 2013+ is since the start of that season. Combo stats are explained below.
Alfredo Simon – has a lot of red in his chart against a hot Pirate team that flustered the great and supposedly matchup proof Johnny Cueto last night.
Andrew Cashner – has a greenish tint to his line nearly all the way across, though none of it (aside from park) is actually greenest of the day.
Chase Whitley – faces one of the best hitting teams vs RHP, but also has a lot of dark green in his line including the BB% and HR/FB of the day, which we’ll have to look at below.
Clayton Kershaw – gets one of the top hitting teams vs LHP, but aside from a certain SS, that may not be enough to slow him down. More amazing about him below.
C.J. Wilson – turns the Indians around to their less successful side. As good as they’ve been at home and against RHP, it’s not as pretty against LHP despite numerous switch hitters in the lineup.
Felix Hernandez – Spend all your money?
Jorge De La Rosa – despite the Dodgers confusing failings vs LHP, this is unlikely to end well for this Colorado pitcher.
Justin Masterson – may see his torturous season continue, although the Angels steer RH heavy, which could be a source of strength for the Cleveland pitcher that doesn’t show up here.
Matt Garza – has 6 BB’s and just 2 K’s over his last 2 starts (13 IP – 59 BF – batters faced) and may be untrustworthy at this point. He’s walked as many or more than he’s struck out in 6 starts this season.
Despite their mini-bust out last night for a few runs, the very mediocre Scott Feldman has what would seem a not entirely unfavorable matchup in Washington.
Wade Miley – was rescheduled for today, though I can’t find a reason for it. Kyle Lohse said that the D’Backs won “tough guy points” after the beanball war last night, but I can’t find a Daily Fantasy site that gives credit for those. At least Arizona found something they can win this year.
Combo K/BB Chart
These are the Combo K & BB numbers from above fleshed out. They are weighted equally in the main chart above. They probably shouldn’t be, but were originally due to space limitations. What’s the correct weighting? Who knows, but now, you have all 6 components (Pitcher: L2Yrs, H/R, L14Days – Opposition: H/A, vL/R, L7Days) that make up the above numbers.
C.J. Wilson – sometimes has issues with his control. He’s walked at least 3 in 7 starts and at least 2 in all but 2 starts. Despite their failings, the Indians still can draw walks against LHP, something they do well overall.
Chase Whitley – has not walked a batter in any of his last 4 starts, though only 1 of those was at home. The Blue Jays may be patient enough to challenge that and do not strike out often despite last night’s double digit effort.
Edinson Volquez – may benefit from facing a fairly impatient Cincinnati team.
Felix Hernandez – spend ALL your money?
Justin Masterson – could help make this a long game with control issues of his own.
Matt Garza – may have to work if he wants to walk this Arizona team.
Wade Miley – the Brewers strike out a lot and rarely walk against LHP.
Combo Batted Ball Chart
Ditto for the Combo Batted Ball stats in the Main Chart above.
C.J. Wilson – Cleveland, as a team, has just a 4.8 HR/FB vs LHP, which would explain a lot of their struggles.
Chase Whitley – aside from not walking anyone, has allowed just 1 HR on the season, in his last start in Seattle. Jose Reyes hit just the Blue Jays 2nd HR in a week last night.
Clayton Kershaw – the surprising thing here is that the Rockies have been able to hit HR’s at an above average rate on the road. Kershaw has allowed a single HR in 3 of his 4 home starts.
Felix Hernandez – SPEND ALL your money!
Gio Gonzalez – the Astros have struck the ball with some authority this season.
Scott Feldman – the Nationals haven’t been able to get the ball out of the park over the last week.
Wade Miley – the one thing the Brewers have done against LHP, is what you’d expect, hit HR’s.
K/SwStr Chart
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing can make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
Andrew Cashner – is rocking a career low SwStr% belying his league average range K%. He’s only eclipsed 6 K’s once on the season.
C.J. Wilson – has a SwStr (8.1%) that exactly matches his career number. His career K% is 21.1, 2% less than this year. Not too awful though.
Chase Whitley – in 4 of 6 starts has had a SwStr above 12.5%. In the other 2 it was below 7%. He’s a candidate to see a K-rate increase.
ERA Estimators Chart
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
Alfredo Simon – the train has adjusted over the last month as both his peripherals have improved along with his ERA climbing.
Andrew Cashner – has an unsustainable 3.8 HR/FB which will likely bring up his ERA at least a little in the future if nothing else changes.
Chase Whitley – while we may see that K-rate increase alluded to above, the HR/FB won’t remain at 2.4%.
Clayton Kershaw – has an absurd 8.88 K/BB and a BABIP .065 above his career average. I’ve never seen ERA estimators that low, but it’s only 55 innings after missing the 1st month.
Edinson Volquez – I guess having a 2.0 K/BB over his last 5 starts is actually upside for him.
Justin Masterson – realize that his infield can’t turn ground balls into outs, which is only part of the problem.
Mark Buehrle – has been able to beat his estimators over his career and has a long enough track record that we can believe results, but that’s only by about a quarter to a half run, not like this. He still looks like the same guy with a LOB (81%) well above his career 72.8% mark. Only once in his career has he allowed less than 20 HR’s. He’s allowed 4 this year.
Scott Feldman – has had the same peripherals all season. It’s the results that have been a rollercoaster. A .195 BABIP and 80 LOB% in April have turned to over .300 and about 60% since.
Wade Miley – when you see SIERA & xFIP not matching up with FIP, that’s usually a HR thing. SIERA & xFIP see the 16 HR’s and 17.8 HR/FB normalizing and likes the increase in strikeouts. There are some similarities between he and McCarthy here, with the K’s and HR’s. Maybe it’s in the water?
BABIP Chart
Last year, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. For example, if you have a pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team’s allowed (red), then you look for some factors that may support it (green). If you have a pitcher with a much higher BABIP (green), but decent IFFB and Z-Contact rates you may be onto something (check batted ball profile too).
Clayton Kershaw – can you imagine what happens when his BABIP normalizes. He has a career high 57% GB rate, more than 10% above his career average.
Edinson Volquez – really only has a 15.9 LD% to back up his low BABIP. His career is .300 on the nose.
Jorge De La Rosa – you mean it could get worse?
Justin Masterson – combines the elite ground ball rate, with a normal line drive rate, and elite infield pop up rate to get a .324 BABIP. Oh that Cleveland defense.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Alfredo Simon – despite a dominant start (7 IP – 1 ER – 0 BB – 5 K) vs the Dodgers last time out, tough to trust a guy seemingly pitching over his head a night against a red hot team if Cueto couldn’t even really shut them down.
Andrew Cashner – while he’s become more of a ground baller than a strikeout artists lately, we’re looking at a solid matchup at reasonable prices for a guy who’s been pretty consistent this season. At least 6 IP in all but one start, 2 ER or less in all but 2, 4 to 6 K’s in all but 2. So we could say that this is a guy with a definite floor.
C.J. Wilson – the 2 issues would be control and price tag. An interesting, but fickle stat would be that Wilson has allowed at least 3 ER in 4 of his last 5 road starts in which he’s only surpassed 6 IP once.
Chase Whitley – if you’re looking for cheaper with some upside, it can be a little scary against a team like Toronto in a small park, but you want to be able to afford one of the big guns? There’s been a lot written about him today.
Clayton Kershaw – is there really much else to say? I don’t have to tell you who he is.
Edinson Volquez – needs a Daily Fantasy owner with a strong stomach even against a normally punchless Reds lineup.
Felix Hernandez – I normally try to stay away from strong opinions or predictions, but if he gets bombed tonight, we should all quit. SPEND – ALL – YOUR – MONEY! Fully expect Felix to have ownership rates above 70% in most leagues tonight.
Gio Gonzalez – I haven’t spoken about him at all yet because he’s coming off a month long DL stint (5/17 last start). In 2 rehab starts in A ball, he got beat up for 8 ER’s then threw 4 innings of 7 K ball allowing 1 ER. In total – 7.2 IP with 8 BB and 9 K. How long will he go in his first start back? Much more than 5 innings?
Jorge De La Rosa – has a 15.8 LD%. There! I’ve said something nice about him today.
Justin Masterson – inconsistent….untrustworthy? I’m never surprised at the final line of a Masterson start.
Mark Buehrle – is one of those better in real life than fantasy pitchers that you really need the right spot for. The lack of K’s puts a normally low ceiling on him.
Matt Garza – needs to find the strike zone and remember how to miss bats more consistently to gain your trust.
Scott Feldman – the value here would be if you believe the Washington offense to be slightly over-valued right now and need a cheap compliment to your stud. Remember that the peripherals have been consistently mediocre despite the wide range of results.
Wade Miley – is a big risk against a team with RH power in this park, but if you believe in the SIERA and xFIP that his HR’s will normalize? Well, today may not be the day to expect that, but here’s a positive note to end on: 33 K’s & 6 BB’s over his last 4 starts (25 IP – 106 BF), bringing it to a very un-Miley-like 21.6 K% on the season now.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.