AL Wild Card Game Preview and Picks
Last night, the Colorado Rockies defeated the Chicago Cubs in the MLB’s NL Wild Card Game. It’s now time to decide the AL Wild Card Game, with the Oakland Athletics traveling to New York City to face the New York Yankees.
Let’s take a look at this matchup.
AL Wild Card Game: Oakland Athletics at New York Yankees
Wednesday, October 3, 2018, at 8 p.m. ET
Yankee Stadium
New York, NY
Oakland Starting Pitcher: Liam Hendriks – 0-1, 4.13 ERA
New York Starting Pitcher: Luis Severino – 19-8, 3.39 ERA
Although they’re stuck in the one-game playoff game, the Athletics performed very well this year when you compare Oakland’s season to its prospect when looking at the win total entering the season. Most sportsbooks had the Athletics win total at 75 and the team blew that out of the water with 97 wins. As for the Yankees, their win total was set in the 94-95 range and they also achieved the over with 100 wins.
The winner of this one gets the Boston Red Sox, and the two teams split the season series 3-3.
Pitching Matchup
It’s not so much comparing Liam Hendriks to Luis Severino, but rather comparing the two approaches taken by both teams here. Hendriks, who is getting the start for the Oakland Athletics, will open the game and then get pulled early as the Athletics start to work through their bullpen. In this situation, Hendriks is being used as a one-winning kickoff man.
You may be surprised to see that Hendriks has no wins on record this season, but he’s not your regular starter who is going to give you six or seven winnings. In his last seven starts, Hendriks has booked seven scoreless innings. In each of those seven starts, Hendriks pitched just one inning. It’ll be interesting to see him in this spot in a do-or-die game on baseball’s biggest stage, Yankee Stadium.
If Athletics can make it through his one winning unscathed, the Athletics will feel good because they’ll then turn the pitching duties over to what is widely considered to be the best bullpen in baseball.
The Yankees take the conventional approach with a regular starter, although they did opt to go with Severino over J.A. Happ. Severino started two games against Oakland this season and posted a 6.23 ERA. Happ would have been the better option, but the Yankees are opting to line things up for Game 1 of the AL Division Series should they get there.
At Yankee Stadium, Severino posted a 10-2 record with a 2.74 ERA, so he’ll be in his comfort zone. Although the Athletics come in with an unconventional approach and a more carefree mentality (they’ve already vastly outperformed their season expectations), Severino should do very well against them in his home park to give the Yankees an edge here.
Keys for the Athletics
For Oakland, this one feels to be all about the bullpens, and not just its own.
The Athletics were able to produce the best record in baseball over the second half of the season, largely because of their bullpen, and they’re going to need it to perform with the unconventional approach they’re taking. Oakland’s starting pitching hasn’t been that good this year as a whole and the team has needed to lean on its backend pitchers, so overall the unorthodox approach seems better for the team.
The Athletics will also need to overcome a very good bullpen from the Yankees, and they’re going to lean on guys like Matt Chapman, Jed Lowrie, and “(player-popup #khris-davis)Khris Davis”:/players/khris-davis-14582 to do so. It’s not going to be an easy task, but it can be done.
Oakland should also attack Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez. Judge hit 26 home runs before he suffered a wrist injury that kept him out for a long period of time. Since coming back, Judge has played 13 games and only hit one home run. He certainly doesn’t seem to be the same old Judge we know, so attack him when he’s in the batter’s box.
As for Sanchez, the Yankees catcher, he leads the league in passed balls and has the eighth-highest stolen base percentage. Although Oakland is dead last in stolen bases, now is the time to put some pressure on a very erratic catcher. Plus, Sanchez is hitting a horrible .168 in his last 30 games.
Keys for the Yankees
For New York, it will be important for this lineup to get the team out to an early lead and then let the bullpen do the work from there. They need to not force Severino to carry more than he needs to, as a lead of only a few runs should do the trick given how good New York’s bullpen is.
Of course, in order to jump out to an early lead the Yankees are going to need to hit and hit early. They finished the regular season first in homers, second in runs, and second in slugging percentage, but this is now the time when it matters. At times this year, the Yankees have looked like there are things amiss with the team. Whether that’s inexperience, lack of focus, or failure by the manager, the hitters have to hit and the bullpen has to close to get past a very good Oakland squad.
Does Home Field Matter?
The Yankees fans should be up for this one and be able to give their team a boost, but the Athletics are certainly no walkover when they play on the road. Only two teams — the Houston Astros and Boston Red Sox — have won more games on the road this season than Oakland.
Yankee Stadium is favorable to hitters, as mentioned earlier, and the Athletics have a powerful lineup in their own right. They’re third in the league in home runs, fourth in runs, and fourth in slugging percentage. The Yankees do have the home-field advantage with the game being in New York, but it’s not as big of an advantage as you may think. The tipping point is really with how well Severino does at home. That’s where the home-field advantage comes into play here.
SharpSide’s Picks
Ride with the big favorites here, the New York Yankees at around -175 or -180. Cause for concern should be low. The Athletics have had a nice run this season, but an unconventional pitching approach on the road against a pitcher that is very good at home is going to be where they fall short. Severino should be dealing and hold off Oakland’s bats.
We also like the over on the runs total, expecting the Yankees to hit well in their home park where they led the league in home runs. Look for New York to get out of the gate quickly and put some runs on the board early before padding their lead in the middle innings.
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