Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins - Game 3 Odds, Prediction, & Pick
Astros vs. Twins Odds
| Astros Odds | +120 |
| Twins Odds | -140 |
| Over/Under | 8.5 |
| Date | Tue, Oct. 10 |
| Time | 4:07 p.m. |
| TV | FOX |
After splitting the first two games of their AL Division Series matchup, the Houston Astros and Minnesota Twins will take the show to the Twin Cities for Game 3 on Tuesday. Houston will hand the ball to Cristian Javier, who will be opposed by Sonny Gray for Minnesota. First pitch is scheduled for 4:07 p.m. ET from Target Field.
Ahead of first pitch, oddsmakers have priced the Twins as -140 favorites on the moneyline. The total for this contest is set at over/under 8.5 runs.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where baseball bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Houston Astros
Cristian Javier looking to put rough regular season behind him
Following a career-best season in 2022, Cristian Javier had a career-worst campaign in 2023. Across 162.0 innings, Javier compiled a 4.56 ERA, 4.58 FIP, and 1.27 WHIP – all of which were the worst of his four-year big-league career.
Javier’s struggles were most salient against left-handed hitters, against which he had a 4.52 FIP, 1.33 WHIP, and allowed a .235 batting average. Facing left-handed batters, Javier’s strikeout rate was 10.8% lower and his walk percentage was 2.1% higher than it was against right-handed batters.
In Game 1, the Twins had five left-handed hitters in the lineup against Justin Verlander. Assuming they roll out a similar lineup on Tuesday, Javier could be in for a short outing in Game 3.
What to expect from the Houston offense
Despite splitting their first two games of the postseason, Houston fans should be encouraged by what they have seen to this point. Through two games in this series, the Astros have had 17 at-bats with runners-in-scoring position. Despite being a dreadful 3-for-17 (.176 batting average) in those opportunities, Houston has managed to score eight runs so far in this series.
This lineup has a tough test in Game 3 against Sonny Gray, but the top-half of this batting order is as good as it gets in Major League Baseball. If there is anything bettors have learned in the last five years, it is that this offense should never be underestimated, regardless of the matchup.
Astros’ bullpen a concern going into pivotal Game 3
In 2022, Houston had seven different relievers throw at least 16.1 innings while posting a 3.00 FIP or better across the final two months of the regular season. Using those same parameters in 2023, Houston had only two relievers meet that criteria. Expanding the criteria, the Astros had only five relievers post a sub-4.00 FIP with at least 16.0 innings of work across August and September this season.
Through two games in this series, the Houston bullpen has been forced to cover 7.2 innings of work. The more that manager Dusty Baker has to rely on unreliable arms in these playoffs, the more opportunities opponents have to do damage in an area where the Astros are vulnerable this October.
Minnesota Twins
Sonny Gray gets the ball for Minnesota in Game 3
During the Wild Card round, Sonny Gray made his fifth career postseason start, and it was his best one to date. Facing the Blue Jays, Gray turned in five innings of shutout baseball while striking out six batters. If there was anything to nit-pick, it was that Gray threw a first-pitch strike to only 13 of 21 batters he faced. Though not a terrible first-pitch strike rate, an inability to consistently get ahead early in the count could be a much bigger issue against Houston’s offense than it was against Toronto’s bats.
This will be the third time this season that Gray will face the Astros. Across his first two outings, he completed 13.0 innings of work, allowing four earned runs while striking out 16 batters. He recorded a quality start in both outings.
At home during the regular season, Gray had a 2.60 FIP, 1.11 WHIP, and posted his best strikeout-to-walk ratios compared to his numbers on the road. Gray is set up for success in this spot if he can avoid free passes.
Twins’ bats up for the challenge
Despite struggling through their first three postseason games, we emphasized that there were reasons to be optimistic about this group as the series progresses. In Game 2 of the Division Series, Minnesota exploded for six runs in a winning effort.
The Twins had the 5th-most home runs of any offense in the big leagues across their final 22 regular season contests. Hitting home runs is typically a recipe for success in the postseason where the long-ball has been king in recent years.
Facing a flyball pitcher, Cristian Javier, in Game 3, the Twins’ offense could produce their best game of the playoffs to date.
Minnesota bullpen rested heading into Tuesday
During the Wild Card round, Minnesota’s bullpen delivered 7.1 innings of spotless work. In their first two postseason games this October, Minnesota’s bullpen has covered 7.1 innings without allowing a run. Kenta Maeda allowed a pair of runs in long relief in Game 1 of the Division Series, but the rest of the bullpen was once again excellent – allowing one earned run in three frames. Brock Stewart, one of Minnesota’s middle relievers, allowed two earned runs in the eighth inning on Sunday, but Jhoan Duran entered in the ninth to put the finishing touches on another win.
Duran, the team’s 100 mph+ flamethrower, is the headliner of this relief corps, but he is supported by other high-quality arms such as Louie Varland and Griffin Jax – each of whom posted a 27.4% strikeout rate or better across the final two months of the regular season. Manager Rocco Baldelli has plenty of swing-and-miss options to choose from in this unit, and everyone that matters is rested, as the Twins prepare to defend home field in Game 3.
Twins vs. Astros – Picks & Predictions
The Twins are likely the most undervalued team remaining in this year’s postseason. They combine strong starting pitching with adequate defense to put pressure on their opponents each time they take the field. Manager Rocco Baldelli has surprisingly led extremely sharp game plans during the first four games of these playoffs for Minnesota.
In Game 3, Minnesota has the better starting pitcher, the better bullpen, and an offense that is well-equipped to take advantage of Javier, who ranked in the 1st percentile in ground ball rate during the regular season. The home favorites should be able to get the job done here.
PICK: Twins Moneyline (-140, Fanatics Sportsbook)