NFL DFS Showdown Lineup Optimizer Values: Bears-Commanders DraftKings Picks
NFL Showdown season continues with the Bears vs. Commanders on Thursday Night Football. Our expert analysts are breaking down Draftkings Showdown picks with our in-house NFL DFS lineup optimizer. Sign up for RotoGrinders Premium for full access to our NFL lineup optimizer and fantasy football projections all season long.
The Bears head to Washington looking for their first win against the 2-2 Commanders, who are coming off back-to-back losses and hungry for another win, especially after almost beating the Eagles in overtime last week. Both teams are capable of putting up points, especially since neither team has any skill players with injury statuses (besides Claypool for Chicago, who remains out), and if the Bears show up like they did last week, we’ll hopefully get a competitive game with plenty of fantasy production.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks: Bears vs. Commanders Week 5
Currently, this game is sitting at a 44.5 total, with the Commanders favored by 6 points. That is a big spread, especially since the Commanders’ defense ranks in the bottom half of the league in yards/game allowed, and are 28th of 32 in points allowed/game at 27. The Bears’ defense is riddled with injuries and is 30th of 32 in points allowed/game at 29.8, so being at home with a slightly better defense is the reason Washington is almost a touchdown favorite.
Quarterback
Justin Fields is the most expensive player tonight, which makes sense as he does have the most upside of anyone on the field when he’s clicking with his arm and legs. The Commanders have allowed the 10th most FPPG to QBs this season, but that is slightly skewed as they just faced Hurts and Allen. However, they did allow 33 points to Russ and almost lost to Dobbs and the Cardinals, so it’s still a plus matchup for Fields. Fields is coming off his best game of the year, going for 335-4-1 in the air and 4-25 on the ground, and is a top cash game target that you should have plenty of captain exposure to in tournaments.
Sam Howell is the fourth priciest player but draws one of the best matchups possible for a QB. The Bears are allowing the 2nd most FPPG to opposing QBs, and are 29th of 32 in pass yards/game allowed at 267.8. Like Fields, Howell is a dual-threat QB that can run if needed and is coming off a 6 for 40 rushing line against Philly. Games like this are the reason Howell flew up draft boards in best ball and season-long leagues, and I’m expecting big numbers from him this evening, making him a cash game lock and a very strong captain target.
Running Back
Khalil Herbert had high expectations coming into the year as the presumed bellcow RB1 for Chicago, but his first three games, he only saw 12 touches or less in each with no TDs. Roschon Johnson looked like more of a usage threat early on than expected. Against Denver last week, we saw the Herbert that we knew could happen with Montgomery out of the picture, as he went off for 122 total yards and a TD on 22 touches. At $8,600, I’d consider him an excellent cash game option as someone who should see 15-20 touches on the ground and through the air against a defense allowing 122.5 rush yards/game on the year. Johnson at $4,800 is just a GPP dart throw if you’re doing MME (mass multi-entry) on a few lineups that don’t include Herbert.
The Commanders RB situation was also a bit unknown to begin the year, as we knew Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson would both be involved, but the exact split had some risk for both in drafts. Those unknowns have been squashed as Robinson is by far the RB1 with 16.5 touches/game through four weeks leading to 15.7 FPPG. As a big home favorite, Robinson should be leaned on heavily if the Commanders can pull out to an early lead, and at $9,200, he is a clear top cash game option. Like Johnson for the Bears, Gibson is merely a GPP option on non-Robinson lineups.
Wide Receiver
Terry McLaurin and DJ Moore are the top WRs tonight, and both are priced almost the same as the 2nd and 3rd most expensive plays. The game script is more likely to favor Moore as a 6-point road underdog likely playing catch up, so if you have the salary to fit one top WR, Moore is my choice. If you’re doing MME, I also like going overweight with Moore in the captain spot, as I think the QBs and even the RBs will draw a lot of the exposure there.
Jahan Dotson and Curtis Samuel are risky cash game options as their production has been very up and down, and both are very TD dependent on hitting value. If you are set on using one, then Samuel would be my pick, as he’s $1,400 cheaper than Dotson, has similar usage to him, and is used as a rusher in some goal-line packages, making him more likely to score a TD. Darnell Mooney ($5,000) is a decent GPP play on Bears stacks, but not someone I can trust in cash games.
Tight End
Cole Kmet will likely be one of the higher-owned players tonight at just $6,400, as he’s coming off a huge 7-85-2 game on 9 targets, and he could see similar targets tonight if the Bears are playing from behind. The Commanders have allowed the lowest FPPG to TEs so far, but I’m not putting a ton of weight into that based on who they’ve faced so far, so Kmet will be a cash game lock for me as the second-highest upside pass-catcher behind Moore from Chicago.
Logan Thomas ($5,200) isn’t cheap enough to be in cash game consideration, as he’s seen just 6 total targets in his last two games played. He could also get game-scripted out early if the Commanders get a big lead, so if you have around $5k in salary for a final flex spot, I’d just go with Samuel or Mooney as higher upside plays.
Defense / Special Teams
The Bears DST is completely off my radar outside of a couple of GPP teams if you’re doing MME. The Commanders DST started the year strong with 11 and 10 FP games, but have now allowed 30+ points in three straight games against mobile QBs, so they’re just a GPP play for me today against another mobile QB. If you need to fill a final flex spot and can fit either kicker, Joey Slye ($4,200) would be my pick over Santos ($4,600).
Thursday Night Football NFL DFS Strategy
Cash game construction is looking like a definite 4-2 or 3-3 build, and I would do my best to get both QBs in. It’s also looking necessary to use a cheap WR or two from the Dotson/Samuel/Mooney group in order to fit in both QBs with one of their top WRs or RBs.
DraftKings DFS Showdown Rankings
1. Justin Fields – Big-time floor/ceiling combo with his rushing ability, and he’ll likely be playing from behind as a 6-point road underdog.
2. Cole Kmet – Just way too cheap at $6,400 and by far my favorite salary saver for cash games.
3. Sam Howell – Fantastic matchup and someone I don’t want to fade in cash games, as he has an insane ceiling if the Bears can keep this game close.
4. DJ Moore – Highest-upside WR that should be favored by the likely game-script.
5. Brian Robinson / Khalil Herbert – I’d have lots of exposure to both in GPPs with plenty of captain usage, and for cash games, I give the slight edge to Robinson.
NFL DFS Lineup Optimizer for Thursday Night Football
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