NFL DFS Showdown Lineup Optimizer Values: Bengals-Ravens DraftKings Picks
NFL Showdown season continues with the Bengals at Ravens on Thursday Night Football. Our expert analysts are breaking down DraftKings Showdown picks with our in-house NFL DFS lineup optimizer. Sign up for RotoGrinders Premium for full access to our NFL lineup optimizer and fantasy football projections all season long.
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It’s one of the best TNF games of the season, with the 7-3 Ravens hosting their divisional opponent 5-4 Bengals in one of the highest projected game totals of the week. This game will have huge ramifications for the future AFC North winner, along with the Bengals staying in the hunt for a potential Wild Card spot. Tee Higgins is out again along with Andrei Iosivas with a knee injury, while the Ravens will likely be without top CB Marlon Humphrey who hurt his ankle last week, and Duvernay is questionable at WR with a hamstring injury.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks: Bengals at Ravens Week 11
Currently, this game is sitting at a 46 total, with the Ravens favored by 3.5 points. Baltimore has been solid at home this year with a 3-2 record while scoring 30 points/game, and their two home losses were by a combined five points. The Bengals are 2-2 on the road and coming off a tough three-point home loss to the Texans after winning four straight before that, and given how tight this division is, we should see them come out focused and ready to keep pace with Lamar and company.
Quarterback
Lamar Jackson ($10,800) is my must-play tonight, as he gets a Bengals defense allowing 383.7 yards/game, which is the third most in the league, and he’s scored an additional 2.4 FPPG at home this year. With a high game total and close spread, he should have his foot on the gas all game, and he should be able to do a lot of damage with his legs, as CIN is allowing 136.2 rush yards/game. He has the highest floor/ceiling combo, which makes him a cash game lock, and he’s the most likely optimal captain play in all formats.
Joe Burrow ($10,000) is in a tougher spot facing a Ravens defense allowing the second lowest total yards/game at 273.6, but with a 21.25 team total and plenty of weapons available even with Higgins out, I would do my best jamming him in with Lamar in your main build. As road underdogs, the game script will favor Burrow surpassing 40 pass attempts, and at just $400 more salary than Mixon, he and the cheap Bengals WRs are by far my preference for CIN exposure.
Running Back
Joe Mixon ($9,600) is priced a bit too high given the tough matchup, plus the fact he’s surpassed 100 total yards just once this year. He does have a TD in three straight games, and I think he’ll need one in this game to get anywhere near paying off his price. In cash games, I’d rather spend on the QBs and/or the top pass-catchers for both teams.
Keaton Mitchell ($5,600) is a hot name in fantasy right now, but he did only see four touches last week in a three way split at RB with Gus Edwards ($7,000) and Justice Hill ($2,800), and if you also account for Jackson basically being another RB, there are just too many ways for Mitchell to bust if he doesn’t break off a long TD. If you’re doing MME (mass multi-entry), then by all means, have exposure to all three Baltimore RBs with each in the captain spot. They all have multi-TD upside in their range of outcomes, but for cash games, I will let others take the risk on which RB has the big game, if any.
Wide Receiver
JaMarr Chase ($11,000) is the most expensive player tonight, and rightfully so as the highest upside skill player in this game, especially with Higgins out. The only downside of no Higgins is that defenses can focus more on Chase now, and he’s already up against the 4th ranked pass defense, allowing under 175 pass yards/game. There is definitely a risk that he doesn’t pay off his price tag in cash games, and using him with both QBs will force you to use some low-floor cheap guys in your other three flex spots. Still, he should absolutely be in plenty of GPP lineups in the captain spot, and if you do only go with one QB in cash games then Chase is easily my favorite other option for a spend-up.
Operating as the WR2 last week, Tyler Boyd ($6,800) turned 12 targets into 8 catches for 117 yards and almost had another catch for a TD. He is by far the best cash game play for under $7k and the best p/$ CIN player to stack with Burrow, and I’d even use him in the captain spot on plenty of GPP teams as he’ll allow you to fit in more high-priced flex players. Trenton Irwin ($4,400) stepped into the WR3 role last week, playing 81% of the snaps and turned in a solid 2-54-1 line on four targets. Like Boyd, he makes for a strong cash game value option to stack with Burrow, and I’d definitely include at least one of Boyd/Irwin on any lineup you build that omits Chase for max leverage.
Zay Flowers ($7,600) is a top cash game target to stack with Jackson, as he’s over $1k cheaper than Andrews and is seeing just as many targets as him. As the top deep ball target against a Bengals defense allowing almost 250 pass yards/game, Flowers has the second highest ceiling after Chase in my opinion, yet he is over $3k cheaper, making him a clear cash game play. Beckham ($5,200) and Bateman ($4,800) are a bit too pricey given their volatile targets and usage, and I would only use them in a few GPP lineups.
Tight End
Mark Andrews ($8,800) is the highest floor Ravens skill player to stack with Jackson as he’s gone for 10+ FP in all but two games this year, but he’s still been pretty TD dependent to pay off his price tags, so I prefer going with Flowers if you only use one of Jackson’s top pass catchers in cash games. By all means, include Andrews in plenty of GPP lineups on stacks with Jackson and Flowers, but for cash games, I think I will be targeting the QBs with Boyd and Flowers, so I won’t have the salary to fit Andrews too.
Tanner Hudson ($2,600) has been the best of the four Bengals TEs recently and should be the one you use in cash games if you need to fill a final flex spot for $3k or less. Irv Smith ($3,000) is extremely TD dependent for any value, while Hudson has seen 12 targets over the last two games and should pay off his price tag regardless if he scores or not.
Defense / Special Teams
I’m not looking to use the Bengals DST ($3,600) against this high-scoring Ravens offense, but I don’t mind having some Ravens DST ($4,600) exposure in GPPs as they have scored 12.2 FPPG at home this year.
Evan McPherson ($4,000) is too cheap for someone with his range in a game with a 46-point total, and he’s easily the best cash game flex play for $4k or less. Justin Tucker ($5,400) is much pricier but is still a great cash game target, as he too has huge range and excellent accuracy. I’d be looking to use him over guys like Mitchell, Beckham, Bateman, or Irwin in that price range.
Thursday Night Football NFL DFS Strategy
There are all kinds of possible builds and at least five or six guys I could see being the optimal captain play, but in cash games, I’m going with Lamar at captain, and I like a 3-3 build that includes both QBs, a WR from each team, and at least one if not both kickers.
DraftKings DFS Showdown Rankings
1. Lamar Jackson – Highest upside player tonight, and a cash game must play that will likely be the optimal captain play.
2. Tyler Boyd – Too much upside for someone priced under $7k with 10+ targets in his range of outcomes, especially with the defense focusing on Chase with Higgins out.
3. Joe Burrow – As a road underdog against a strong defense, Burrow will likely have to throw it a ton tonight, and now that he’s healthy he does have some rushing TD upside.
4. Zay Flowers – My favorite Ravens skill player to stack with Lamar in cash games, and I’d make sure to have captain exposure to him in GPPs.
5. Both Kickers – McPherson is a cash game must for me at $4k, while Tucker is still my favorite cash game target in the $5k price range.
NFL DFS Lineup Optimizer for Thursday Night Football
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