Bengals vs. Titans Preview: Odds, Betting Picks and Prediction

by Nick Galaida (nickgalaida) Last Updated 2022-01-21 20:49:52

Bengals vs. Titans Odds

On Saturday afternoon the Cincinnati Bengals will travel to Nissan Stadium to take on the Tennessee Titans in the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs. Last week, the Bengals defense stepped up on the goal line in the closing seconds to secure a victory over the Las Vegas Raiders. The Titans are coming off of a bye week after securing the top seed in the AFC playoff picture. In this highly anticipated matchup, oddsmakers are anticipating a Tennessee victory–pricing the Titans as 3.5-point home favorites on the spread. Let’s take a deeper dive into the odds and data before revealing our free pick on the game.

Bengals +3.5

Bettors would be hard-pressed to find a better collection of skill players than Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, and Joe Mixon. Since Week 14, Burrow has posted a 13-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio, averaging 344.0 passing yards per game. The primary concern for this offensive attack is a porous offensive line that has allowed Burrow to be sacked a total of 23 times in his last six games played. Tennessee does not have an elite pass rush, but it could nonetheless be a challenge to keep Jeffery Simmons and Denico Autry out of the backfield in this one.

The Bengals defensive line is going to struggle to win the line of scrimmage in this one. Trey Hendrickson is elite at rushing the passer, but he is abysmal defending the run. Cameron Sample and Sam Hubbard are equally deficient stopping opposing rushing attacks. B.J. Hill is unlikely to slow down Derrick Henry by himself. Excluding Week 18 of the regular season, Cincinnati has allowed 4.9 yards-per-carry on the ground. Fortunately, the Bengals have been much-improved in the secondary during the second half of the campaign. Since Week 9 (excluding Week 18), Cincinnati is allowing only 6.7 yards-per-attempt through the air. Chidobe Awuzie has emerged as one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL to anchor this pass defense.

Titans -3.5

Unquestionably, the biggest storyline surrounding the Titans ahead of this matchup concerns the status of Derrick Henry. Per Jeremy Bergman, Head Coach Mike Vrabel will make a determination on his availability at some point on Friday. Henry has been out since Week 8 after undergoing foot surgery, but is expected to be on the field this weekend. Even if Henry is not at full strength, Tennessee’s strong offensive line should be able to create plenty of room on the ground for whoever is receiving handoffs out of the backfield. Ryan Tannehill has played better of late as well, finishing the regular season with a 7-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio over his final three games played.

Since Week 6, the Titans have held their opponents to 3.7 yards-per-carry on the ground.—having not allowed more than 97 rushing yards in any of those contests. However, it is worth noting that Tennessee has not exactly faced elite rushing attacks during that stretch of action. The only notable running back they have faced was Jonathan Taylor, who averaged 4.4 yards-per-carry on 16 attempts against them. This run defense is likely somewhat overrated. Tennessee held opposing signal callers to an 86.4 passer rating this fall, but allowed 7.1 yards-per-attempt through the air. Against elite skill position players for the Bengals, this is a secondary unit that could struggle.

Divisional Round Prediction

During the regular season, Tennessee played at the fourth quickest pace of any team in the NFL. However, only six teams ran fewer plays per contest than Cincinnati this fall. In a game that is likely to feature an average number of plays, the question that bettors must ask themselves is whether the offense or defense in this contest is superior for both teams. Judging by the available talent on both sides of the ball, it would be wise to expect a relatively high-scoring affair. Cincinnati is going to find it difficult to stop the Titans’ running attack. Tennessee is likely going to struggle to slow down Chase, Higgins, and Boyd through the air. Take the over on Saturday.

• PICK: Over 47.5

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