MLB Player Props Today: Lugo, Mahle, Plus a PrizePicks Prediction (April 27)
What kind of performances can we expect on Thursday from Seth Lugo, Tyler Mahle, and Joey Lucchesi? Follow along as our MLB betting expert, Nick Galaida, breaks down three of his favorite MLB prop bets and DFS pick’em predictions for today – Thursday April 27, 2023. Get all of Nick’s picks, including more baseball props, at ScoresandOdds.
Happy Thursday! We went back to focusing on pitcher props yesterday and ended back in the green with a 2-1 day – only one out away from a sweep. We are now 31-11 (73.8%) on our pitcher prop recommendations to begin 2023.
Thursday’s 11-game MLB slate begins with a matchup between the Miami Marlins and Atlanta Braves at 12:20 PM ET. Following six afternoon games, there are five more contests with a scheduled first pitch of 6:40 PM ET or later.
Below are three prop leans for April 27 as we look to build off of yesterday’s strong performance!
MLB Props Results – Wager Type
1st Inning: 0-3
Dinger Tuesday: 2-4
Hitter: 8-14
Outs Recorded: 13-3
Stolen Base: 0-2
Strikeout: 18-8
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MLB Player Props Today
- Seth Lugo o4.5 strikeouts
- Tyler Mahle o5.5 strikeouts
- Joey Lucchesi more than 5.0 strikeouts
Seth Lugo o4.5 strikeouts (-130), DraftKings
Seth Lugo has eclipsed this market number in each of his four starts to begin 2023. On Thursday, he will face a Chicago Cubs lineup that has been making a lot of contact to begin the year, but there are still four guys likely to be in today’s lineup for Chicago who have worse-than-league-average contact rates on an annual basis. Lugo will also have the benefit of Gabe Morales calling balls and strikes in this matchup, who is one of the most strikeout-friendly umpires in the league. Having a strikeout-friendly umpire is particularly important when facing the Cubs, which have taken the third-most called strikes of any team in baseball so far this season. This one might not be easy, but Lugo should find a way to get to five strikeouts this afternoon.
Tyler Mahle o5.5 strikeouts (-140), PointsBet
In his most recent start against the high-contact Washington Nationals, Tyler Mahle had only four strikeouts and an 18.2% strikeout rate. However, it was the first time this season that Mahle had recorded less than a 23.8% strikeout rate in a start. Today, he gets a much more favorable matchup against a Kansas City Royals offense that ranks 24th in strikeout percentage to begin the new campaign. Mahle has been particularly adept at getting opposing hitters to swing at pitches outside of the strike zone early this year, which should benefit him tremendously against a Kansas City lineup that has chased pitches out of the zone at the second-highest rate of any team in the league this year.
MLB DFS Pick’em
Joey Lucchesi more than 5.0 strikeouts, PrizePicks
Entering play on Thursday, the Washington Nationals have struck out less often against left-handed pitching than every team in baseball other than the Houston Astros. Still, this market number is far too low for Lucchesi, who is coming off of a dominant 9-strikeout performance against the San Francisco Giants in his last outing. In that start, Lucchesi did a masterful job working ahead in the count, throwing a first-pitch strike to 79.2% of batters he faced. Lucchesi also had six strikeouts or more in each of his final two minor league starts before being promoted. It may be wise to wait for an umpire before locking in this action, but Lucchesi should be competitive at this market number, even in a tough matchup.
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