MLB Player Props Today: May, Freeland, Plus a PrizePicks Prediction (April 6)
What kind of performances can we expect on Thursday from Dustin May, Kyle Freeland, and Merrill Kelly? Follow along as our MLB betting expert, Nick Galaida, breaks down his three favorite MLB prop bets and DFS pick’em predictions for April 6 on the diamond.
Happy Thursday! Yesterday we hit another strikeout prop, but missed on our other two leans. Today, we have only three games scheduled for the late afternoon and evening on the MLB slate, but there are still spots worthy of bettors’ consideration. Below are three leans for April 6 as we look to build off of our early season results in this article.
MLB Prop Bets Results – Monthly
April: 3-3
March: 2-1
MLB Props Results – Wager Type
1st Inning: 0-1
Dinger Tuesday: 1-1
Outs Recorded: 1-0
Hit/Total Bases: 0-2
Stolen Base: 0-0
Strikeout: 3-0
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MLB Player Props Today
- Dustin May u5.5 strikeouts
- Kyle Freeland u17.5 outs recorded
- Dustin May + Merrill Kelly more than 0.5 1st inning runs allowed
Dustin May u5.5 strikeouts (-170), DraftKings
The Arizona Diamondbacks have not had a particularly disciplined approach at the plate to begin the year, ranking 23rd in swing percentage on pitches outside of the strike zone. However, they have done a reasonably good job at least making contact on those poor swing decisions, ranking 10th in O-Contact percentage as a team through their first 209 plate appearances. As a result, Arizona ranks close to the league-average in swinging-strike rate thus far – 15th out of 30 teams. We still do not have an umpire for tonight’s matchup between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Arizona Diamondbacks, but this is still a play that bettors can target for this evening’s slate. Take the under. Wait for an umpire assignment if on the fence here.
Kyle Freeland u17.5 outs recorded (-135), BetMGM
According to props.cash, Kyle Freeland was 9-for-16 to the over at this market number when pitching at Coors Field in 2022, but there are reasons to believe that he does not get there today. First of all, Freeland threw only 74 pitches in his first start of the season, meaning that he may still be facing some type of restriction in his second turn through the rotation this afternoon. The Washington Nationals are also not an incredibly favorable matchup for left-handed pitchers. We are obviously still dealing with extremely small sample sizes this early in the season, but Washington enters play ranked 10th in OPS, third in walk rate, and third in strikeout percentage against southpaws in 2023. Expect them to make life difficult for Freeland – take the under on his outs recorded.
MLB DFS Pick’em
Dustin May + Merrill Kelly more than 0.5 1st inning runs allowed, PrizePicks
On March 31, Dustin May delivered seven scoreless innings against the Arizona Diamondbacks. In that same game, Merrill Kelly allowed zero runs against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Though both of these pitchers had success against these same lineups one week ago, it is likely that they find life much more difficult on Thursday. When a pitcher faces the same offenses more than once in a span of less than two weeks, the hyper-proximity of the matchup nearly always favors the offense rather than the pitcher. Do not be surprised if we see runs on the board early in this contest tonight – perhaps as early as the first inning.
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