Best Patriots vs. Falcons Player Prop Bets for Thursday Night Football
What kind of performances can we expect from Matt Ryan, Mac Jones, Hunter Henry, and Kyle Pitts during Thursday Night Football? Sports betting analyst and NFL prop bettor Nick Galaida has a hunch. Follow his lead as he breaks down his four favorite Patriots vs. Falcons player props for this Week 11 inaugural matchup.
The New England Patriots and the Atlanta Falcons will open Week 11 of the NFL season on Thursday Night Football at Mercedes Benz Stadium. The Patriots enter play on a four-game winning streak, while the Falcons 2-2 during that span, which includes a 40-point loss last week. With just hours until kickoff, the value on the spread and the total has been reduced compared to its opening market price. Instead of forcing action on saturated markets, bettors may find more expected value on player props for this Thursday Night Football game.
Read more: Patriots vs. Falcons Odds
Patriots vs. Falcons Player Props
Matt Ryan u250.5 passing yards (-110)
It is not often that I allow myself to get extremely excited betting an NFL player prop. However, the under in this situation is an opportunity that bettors should absolutely consider ahead of Thursday night’s action. Matt Ryan threw for only 146 yards against the Carolina Panthers in Week 8. Last Sunday against the Dallas Cowboys, Ryan totaled only 117 passing yards. The Patriots have held opposing quarterbacks to 223 yards passing or less in each of their last four games. Opposing quarterbacks have only 13 touchdowns against 14 interceptions when facing New England this fall. The Patriots have held opposing signal callers to a 59.4 percent completion rate and a dreadful 75.7 passer rating. Ryan and the Falcons passing attack could be in for a very difficult evening.
Mac Jones o251.5 passing yards (-165)
Some bettors might be hesitant to pull the trigger on the over for Mac Jones tonight, considering that he has not thrown for more than 198 yards in either of the last two weeks, and has only thrown for more than 231 yards once in his last six games. However, the game script tonight should favor the New England passing attack tremendously. Only the New York Jets have allowed a higher passer rating to opposing quarterbacks this year. Against Atlanta, quarterbacks have totaled 19 touchdowns against only three interceptions, and a 69.1 completion percentage. The Falcons also have a respectable run defense, which should entrust Jones with more responsibility through the air than he has had in recent weeks. This wager has a good chance to hit this evening.
Hunter Henry o32.5 receiving yards (-110)
If Mac Jones is going to throw the ball a lot, there obviously has to be someone on the other end of those passes for yards to accumulate. One member of the receiving team who should be plenty busy tonight is Hunter Henry. Playing tight end, Henry has 31 catches on 42 targets this season—each of which rank fourth on the team. However, he has emerged in recent weeks as one of the favorite targets for Jones. Even though Jones has produced low passing yardage totals due to run-heavy game scripts during New England’s current winning streak, Henry has totaled 30 or more passing yards in seven of the Patriots’ 10 games. New England dominates the time of possession on a weekly basis. The Falcons prefer to play much quicker, which should translate to plenty of offensive snaps for all of New England’s pass catchers tonight. Henry’s line has value here.
Kyle Pitts – Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+200)
Matt Ryan had three reliable pass catching options at the beginning of the season — Calvin Ridley, Kyle Pitts, and Cordarrelle Patterson. Ridley is out for tonight’s game and Patterson is trending towards being inactive. In nine games this fall, Ridley, Pitts, or Patterson have been Atlanta’s leading receiver eight times. Considering that only Pitts is likely to be on the field tonight from those three options, it seems likely that Pitts will be a primary option for Ryan to look for each time the Falcons find themselves in the red zone. Of course, the Patriots are likely to give Pitts plenty of defensive attention in these situations tonight as well, but the talented tight end is good enough to find space nevertheless. At significant plus-money, this could be a profitable wager tonight.
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