Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies - Game 4 Odds, Prediction, & Pick
Braves vs. Phillies Odds
| Braves Odds | -160 |
| Phillies Odds | +135 |
| Over/Under | 8.5 |
| Date | Thu, Oct. 12 |
| Time | 8:07 p.m. |
| TV | TBS |
Tonight, the Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies will play Game 4 of their NL Division Series matchup from Citizens Bank Park. Philadelphia holds a 2-1 series advantage ahead of today’s action and can clinch their second consecutive trip to the National League Championship Series with a win this evening in front of their home fans. The first pitch is scheduled for 8:07 p.m. ET on TBS.
Ahead of the first pitch, oddsmakers have priced the Braves as -160 favorites on the moneyline. The total for this contest is set at over/under 8.5 runs.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where baseball bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Atlanta Braves
Spencer Strider looking to keep Atlanta’s season alive
In Game 1 of this series, Spencer Strider pitched seven innings, allowing one earned run on five hits while striking out eight batters. Tonight, he will have a much tougher task in front of him, given that this is a hyper-proximity matchup against the same lineup that saw him less than a week ago. Moreover, this is the fourth time that the Phillies’ bats have seen Strider since September 13, meaning that they have plenty of recent memory and pattern recognition from which to draw on Thursday.
During the regular season, Strider was significantly worse on the road than at home. On the road, he posted a 3.30 FIP, 1.15 WHIP, and had a strikeout rate that was 7.3% lower than it was at home. Though his road numbers are still strong relative to his peers, there are a few yellow flags going into Game 4 that could keep Strider from performing at an elite level.
Atlanta’s offense in need of bounce-back performance
In the series opener, the Braves were shutout at home for the first time since 2021. In Game 2, Atlanta had no runs through five innings and found themselves flirting with being no-hit into the sixth inning. However, they found life in the latter frames, scoring five runs off of the Philadelphia bullpen to tie the series. In Game 3, Atlanta had 10 hits, but only two runs. Of those 10 hits, nine of them came from the top-five spots in the batting order, with the rest of the offense failing to contribute much of anything.
The Braves’ offense had a historic regular season, leading the big leagues in runs scored and boasting a lineup that had seven different players finish with an .808 OPS or better. The long layoff between the end of the regular season and Game 1 can be used to explain away lackluster production in the first few games of this Division Series, but Atlanta’s bats will play their fourth game in five days on Thursday – there is no more room for excuses with the season hanging in the balance. They get a favorable matchup against Ranger Suarez to begin the game as they look to push this series back to Truist Park for a decisive Game 5.
Atlanta’s bullpen in good shape heading into Game 4
If there is one benefit to Bryce Elder allowing six earned runs in 2.2 innings yesterday, it is that Manager Brian Snitker was able to avoid using most of his high-leverage options out of the bullpen. Brad Hand threw 23 pitches in the loss, but each of the other high-quality arms in this bullpen have now had two days of rest since pitching in Game 2.
Manager Brian Snitker has historically used his top relievers on a nearly every-game basis during the playoffs. All of his top options should get into the game today, especially with a scheduled off-day on Friday before a potential Game 5 on Saturday.
Philadelphia Phillies
Ranger Suarez gets the ball for Philadelphia in Game 4
Ranger Suarez was excellent in Game 1 of this Division Series, blanking the Braves across 3.2 innings in Atlanta. Tonight, he is likely to be tasked with another abbreviated outing before handing things off to a rested Philadelphia bullpen.
Suarez did not have great regular season splits, no matter how the data is cut. However, he was reasonably effective his first time facing a lineup in a game, with a 3.63 FIP. After that, his FIP jumped to 4.36 his second time through the order and his walk rate nearly doubled. Manager Rob Thompson is likely to ride Suarez until the first sign of trouble in this one, but it is doubtful that he will see the fifth inning on Thursday.
Philadelphia’s offense on the verge of second consecutive NLCS
In yesterday’s game preview, we mentioned that, despite losing Game 2, Philadelphia had more hits and at-bats with runners-in-scoring-position (RISP) than Atlanta. The Phillies also stole a pair of bases on Monday evening. The issue was simply that the Phillies left 11 men-on-base compared to the Braves leaving two men-on-base. In Game 3, Philadelphia was a respectable 3-for-10 (.300 batting average) with RISP and left only five men-on-base. The result was 10 runs in a blowout victory.
In five games to begin these playoffs, the Phillies have had 49 at-bats with RISP. If they can deliver in some of these key moments, it would not be surprising to see another offensive explosion on Thursday evening.
Phillies’ bullpen ready to put finishing touches on series
Philadelphia’s bullpen has made only one mistake so far this October – Jeff Hoffman hung a 3-2 slider against Austin Riley, which cost the Phillies a Game 2 victory. Other than that, this unit has been dominant.
Philadelphia’s bullpen delivered 5.1 innings of scoreless baseball in the series opener behind Ranger Suarez and had another 3.1 innings of scoreless work yesterday in support of Aaron Nola. Seranthony Dominguez was the only high-leverage arm used by Manager Rob Thompson in yesterday’s victory, meaning that everyone should be ready to go on Thursday as this group looks to punch their team’s ticket to the next round of the postseason.
Phillies vs. Braves – Picks & Predictions
It is exceedingly rare for an offense to face the same starting pitcher four times within the same month. Though Spencer Strider had a lot of success during the regular season against the Phillies, he is primarily a fastball-slider pitcher, which means he really does not have many ways to surprise his opponent tonight. The Phillies have had 49 at-bats with RISP through five games this October, meaning that they are consistently putting themselves in position to score runs. Strider is also a pitcher that teams can run on, which means walks and singles have the potential to turn into extra-base hits. Four runs in this spot is very obtainable for this Philadelphia offense on Thursday.
PICK: Phillies Team Total o3.5 Runs (+105, Fanatics Sportsbook)