Primetime Parlay: Broncos vs. Chargers Same Game Parlay Picks and Props
Throughout the 2022 NFL season, this article will use ScoresAndOdds’ ParlayIQ tool to examine building same game parlays across various sports betting sites for primetime NFL matchups. We will examine stats, roster news, trends, player props and betting odds across sportsbooks to pick the most profitable combination of outcomes for primetime games. Now let’s build our Broncos vs. Chargers same game parlay for Monday Night Football.
Happy Monday, Grinders! After a decent Sunday Night Football game, the NFL offers an AFC West battle between the Broncos and Chargers. The West was pegged as the potential top division in the NFL before the season began but disappointing starts from the Raiders and Broncos poured cold water on that inferno. The Broncos continue to play in primetime despite looking inept, while the Chargers continue to win games by the skin of their teeth. Should be a hoot! Let’s build a same game parlay for tonight’s Monday Night Football matchup.
Broncos vs. Chargers Same Game Parlay Preview
FanDuel Sportsbook post the Chargers as 4.5-point favorites with -106 the price on the Chargers side of the spread. The implied game total is 45.5 points with a -108 price on the under. The Chargers are coming off of back-to-back wins while the Broncos are 0-2 over the same two weeks.
Per SAO, after the line opened up at -4, the number moved to -6 and then all the way back to -4.5. 66% of tickets were bet on the Chargers while only 45% of the money agreed. As for the total, 95% of the money sits with the under while 66% of tickets are on the over. Say what?
As for the injury report, Russell Wilson practiced and Friday and seems good to go… whatever that means. Melvin Gordon is questionable but put in limited practices throughout this week. Safety, Justin Simmons, seems poised to return from IR after practicing throughout the week. Simmons will be a helpful addition to a defense that has been playing well while the offense struggles.
For the Chargers, they continue to play without Joey Bosa and Keenan Allen. Dustin Hopkins will play against the Broncos.
Let’s see what ParlayIQ thinks about this game. Prior to looking at the simulations, I want to build a Chargers-heavy script. Let’s see if we get some support.
Broncos vs. Chargers Same Game Parlay Picks
Los Angeles Chargers -4.5
Well, how about that? ParlayIQ lets us know that 55% of the 4897 simulations include a Chargers cover. For that reason, opening with this leg is going to likely help with expected value because we are already guaranteed a better price on FanDuel. Assuming we don’t hyper-correlate our ticket, we are likely looking at some EV.
I am very nervous about the discrepancy between the number of tickets on the Chargers versus the money. My hope is that the money coming in on the Chargers was on this number and then attacked again as the spread got higher. At home, even if Los Angeles is not a wildly supportive stadium, I cannot fathom the Broncos coming in and beating the Chargers. Brandon Staley flummoxes many with his coaching decisions but he might have met his match this week with Nathaniel Hackett.
Give me the Chargers. I’ll run with the simulations. Now, we look for legs that coincide with this start.
Austin Ekeler Over 37.5 Receiving Yards
The Broncos’ defense continues to be strong and be let down by the offense and coaching. Even still, the Broncos missed Jonathan Taylor in one of the worst primetime football games we ever had to watch (before Chicago and Washington) after getting dominated by Josh Jacobs. Jacobs rushed for 144 yards and added 5 catches for 31 yards.
While Jacobs continues to prove himself as an elite workhorse, Austin Ekeler is significantly more explosive with potential for breaking one anywhere on the football field. Ekeler beat this number in three of five games and continues to see plenty of targets for the Chargers’ offense (17.84% target share). Without Keenan Allen, Ekeler will continue to see a nice workload. I prefer his receiving number more than his rushing and ParlayIQ agrees.
Mike Williams Over 68.5 Receiving Yards
ParlayIQ fancies the Chargers’ offense. The over on Justin Herbert seems favorable as does Mike Williams. Without Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Austin Ekeler continue to be the cornerstones of the Chargers’ offense.
ParlayIQ, powered by RotoGrinders’ Stat Projections, likes the over on the Mike Williams receiving prop. I do as well.
Many will worry about Patrick Surtain II, but as ever, defensive matchups are not a consideration when the volume is there. Williams boasts nearly a 24% share of the targets after seeing 11 and 15 in back-to-back weeks. When you consider his big play ability, we can see how he can put together a big week in any contest.
Give me the over. ParlayIQ is digging this setup. That said, with such a heavy Chargers’ script, we need to find a Broncos leg to bring back.
Melvin Gordon Over 14.5 Receiving Yards
Melvin Gordon seems poised to play. The extra rest surely will help his questionable tag. Gordon hit for us with a touchdown and his receiving prop against the Colts. I am going back to the well again.
Even if Mike Boone continues to see touches and targets, he is not going to exceed the volume Javonte Williams saw in this offense. Melvin Gordon was outsnapped by Boone but saw more carries and just as many targets. This number doesn’t require as many targets as Ekeler will need. Gordon should see a screen or two as well as dumpoffs from Russell Wilson.
While this over isn’t wildly negative in correlation, any over for a Bronco is going to work against our spread pick. FanDuel will likely reward us with pricing for this.
DEN vs. LAC Same Game Parlay Odds
- Los Angeles Charger -4.5
- Austin Ekeler Over 37.5 Rushing Yards
- Mike Williams Over 68.5 Receiving Yards
- Melvin Gordon Over 14.5 Receiving Yards
Lock in Joe’s Pick in 1 Click
PLACE THIS BET ON
Our ParlayIQ simulations offer the following price recommendation:
FanDuel, however, prices our ticket way, way, WAY higher.
This is the one we need to hit to make up for a recent drought. Remember to wager responsibly, we are betting very little hoping to hit very big.
Lock in Joe’s Pick in 1 Click
PLACE THIS BET ON Parlay Odds: +1244
Risk: 1/2 unit to win 6.22 units
Good luck with all of your bets and plays this evening. Share your parlays with me on Twitter and any other plays you are making for the game. First touchdown scorers? Touchdowns? DFS lineups? Thanks for reading.
Image Credit: Imagn