Denver Broncos vs. Las Vegas Raiders Prediction: Is Charlie Wright?
Is Charlie Wright? explores one NFL bet each week based on a major decision point. Ideally, this article will lay out a case for the bet in a thorough manner, giving the reader the opportunity to either agree with the perspective and tail the bet or disagree with the breakdown and fade the pick.
Was Charlie Wright? (TB -2.5)
Certainly not. Tampa Bay fell flat, failing to score for the first three quarters. A couple of late touchdowns made the score way more respectable than how the actual game played out. The Bucs can still win the division with a victory this week, but there’s a good chance they get pounded by Philadelphia in the first round.
Hit both props again. Tony Pollard sputtered against Detroit’s tough run defense and Rashee Rice knocked out his prop on one catch. Good stuff, nice little run to close the season.
Records after Week 17
- Charlie: 10-6-1
- Prop Picks: 21-13
Programming Note
This will be the final edition of the article for this season. Thanks to everyone who read it each week! Had a lot of fun putting it together, and the final record looks pretty solid.
Week 18 Pick: Las Vegas Raiders -2.5 (-120 on BetMGM)
Reason: Antonio Pierce has changed the culture.
Just give Antonio Pierce the job. He’s done an incredible job since Josh McDaniels was fired, both on the field and in the locker room. The Raiders are 4-4 since Pierce took over, and that includes losses to three potential playoff teams (Chiefs, Dolphins, Colts).
As Paul Gutierrez of ESPN pointed out, Las Vegas ranks first in the NFL in points per game allowed (16.3) under Pierce. They had allowed 23.4 PPG with McDaniels at the helm. Improving by a full touchdown is pretty impressive.
The offense … still stinks. Pierce turned to rookie Aidan O’Connell and he hasn’t done much to elevate a unit that does have some talent. Josh Jacobs missing time hasn’t helped, but the star running back was healthy for the egregious 3-0 loss to Minnesota. Still, Las Vegas has found ways to win games without excelling on offense, with the Christmas Day victory over Kansas City being a great example. Two defensive TDs shouldn’t be expected every week, but they controlled that game despite O’Connell passing for 62 yards.
Denver moved on from Russell Wilson, likely because of contract reasons, along with Sean Payton’s general distaste for everything about him. Jarrett Stidham was able to lead the Broncos to a narrow win over the Chargers, but it was a pretty weak performance, outside of a long touchdown to Lil’Jordan Humphrey. The running game trudged to 101 yards on 33 carries.
This game is “meaningless” in terms of playoff implications. But for Pierce? He’s coaching for his life. Will gladly back his squad at home against a checked-out Denver team.
PICK: Las Vegas Raiders -2.5 (-120 on BetMGM)
NFL Player Props for Week 18
Nico Collins Over 70.5 Receiving Yards (-115 on Fanatics Sportsbook)
Collins might be the last man standing in Houston. Tank Dell is of course done for the year, while both Noah Brown and Robert Woods missed practice on Wednesday. Can’t imagine John Metchie and Xavier Hutchinson attract much attention from C.J. Stroud. Indianapolis has a middling pass defense; this is more about volume. Since Dell went down, Collins has averaged nearly 9 targets per game (excluding the one he left in the first quarter).
Aaron Jones Under 64.5 Rushing Yards (-117 on Caesars)
Jones has been awesome over the past two weeks, but those performances came against a weak run defense (Carolina) and in an extremely positive game script (Minnesota). Green Bay dominated the Vikings last week, both on the scoreboard and in time of possession. The Packers ran 74 plays, their second-most this season. So, while Jones’s season-high 42 snaps were encouraging, they were only 57% of the team’s plays. He’s probably not topping 20 carries again, assuming a more normal game script. Chicago is the best run defense in the league in terms of yards allowed per game. The Bears have held running backs to the 3rd-fewest yards per game and the 4th-lowest yards per carry.
Not in a legal sports betting state? Use your Sleeper promo code to make player predictions with a $100 sign-up bonus this week!
Image Credit: Getty Images