Primetime Parlay: Browns vs. Steelers Same Game Parlay Picks
Last year, ScoresAndOdds’ ParlayIQ tool helped us create a variety of fun same-game parlay tickets throughout the NFL season. Through simulations, the tool examines the potential value various betting lines offer on sports betting sites. Along with the simulation, we will examine stats, roster news, trends, player props, and betting odds across sports betting sites to find the best price for our same-game parlay ticket. For this article, we build a Monday Night Football same-game parlay for the Cleveland Browns versus the Pittsburgh Steelers.
After opening the season within the division, the Browns go to Pittsburgh for another rivalry game on Monday Night Football. The Browns held what was assumed to be a great Cincinnati offense in check in bad weather in the first week. This week, the Steelers will look to improve upon a horrific performance against San Francisco with an all-important home victory. The AFC North games tend to be ugly. Will Deshaun Watson and Kenny Pickett bring something new to the storied rivalry? We open with odds and news before getting into tonight’s SGP ticket.
Browns vs. Steelers Same Game Parlay
The Browns are 2.5-point favorites on the road on FanDuel Sportsbook this evening. According to sports betting sites, points will be at a premium with a 38.5 implied game total at the time of this writing. The Browns are coming off of a victory against the Bengals, while the Steelers were crushed by the 49ers to open the season. The weather seems fine for tonight’s contest.
At the time of this writing, SAO reports that just above 50% of both betting tickets and dollars reside on the home team in this AFC North battle. The games in the AFC South tend to be close with teams that are very familiar with tendencies. Also, to no surprise, an implied total that opened at 42.5 points has been bet down four points over the course of the week. 93% of the betting handle has been spent on the under in this contest.
The Steelers lost Cameron Hayward in Week 1 to a groin injury that requires surgery. Diontae Johnson left the game versus the 49ers with a hamstring injury and is expected to miss multiple weeks. Amari Cooper was announced all but out on Sunday with a groin injury. Elijah Moore and Donovan Peoples-Jones should see more work.
Cleveland inexplicably held the Bengals to 2.6 yards per play in Week 1. While the defense finished in the middle of the pack in this stat category, the surprise lands more because of the offense the Bengals were thought to be. Joe Burrow and company will likely right the ship but the Browns were still very impressive — sacking Burrow twice and holding the elite quarterback to less than 100 passing yards.
At the other end of the spectrum, the Steelers allowed nearly six yards per play against the 49ers. The vaunted Steelers’ defense of old doesn’t seem to be the same and should only play worse without Cam Heyward. Nick Chubb rushed 18 times for 106 yards last week and will likely be given a similar workload against a Pittsburgh team that was carved up by Christian McCaffrey.
The Steelers are very short underdogs but feel like a wounded duck heading into this division rivalry. I am curious to see what ParlayIQ finds appealing after thousands of simulations of this game. Let’s get to it.
Update – 3:00 PM EST – Kevin Stefanski reports that Amari Cooper is expected to play in tonight’s game.
Same Game Parlay Picks for MNF
Cleveland Browns Moneyline
I noticed when reflecting upon my first set of same-game parlay tickets that I tend to look for massive odds instead of building a parlay that seems a bit more reasonable. In other words, chasing too much negative correlation on FanDuel Sportsbook makes the outcome even less likely — which is why FanDuel is happy to boost these even if only slightly.
So, I would like to oversimplify tonight’s game. I think the Browns win. I think the Browns are going to run the ball right at the Steelers and make Pittsburgh prove they can move the ball down the field with Kenny Pickett. Pickett is not as bad as he showed last week and the Browns are not in the same league as the 49ers. That said, Cleveland should make the Steelers prove they can’t make mistakes — especially without Diontae Johnson.
We open with this ML, which ParlayIQ believes should be priced at -139 (FanDuel Sportsbook -129) for tonight’s game.
Nick Chubb Over 83.5 Rushing Yards
I don’t have much to add in this section. The Browns should play smashmouth football as Deshaun Watson continues to reacclimate himself to the NFL game. Without Amari Cooper, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Browns run the ball until they can’t — especially with the lead.
Nick Chubb put together an efficient week against the Bengals with only 18 carries. I wouldn’t be shocked to see more than 20 attempts from the veteran stud as the Browns won’t have a reason to throw the ball that much if my script comes to fruition.
George Pickens Over 42.5 Receiving Yards
Pickens played relatively well last week despite the tough loss against San Francisco. Winning outside is not that easy against a great defense. Pickens measly output doesn’t inspire as much confidence as the six targets that were directed at the sophomore.
Without Diontae Johnson, Pickens should see a few more looks and could potentially see 7-9 targets. If the script we are building is true, the Steelers might have to throw the ball earlier than anticipated as they aim to come back. The yardage number is very small relative to Pickens big-play ability and the volume he should see.
As the Steelers look to overcome a deficit, I anticipate George Pickens will exceed this number. Speaking of receiving outputs for the Steelers…
Jaylen Warren Over 12.5 Receiving Yards
Jaylen Warren saw 5 targets last week and was able to put together a very forgettable yardage total. With only 12 receiving yards, we will chalk the output to the opposing defense.
The Browns aren’t bad but they aren’t the 49ers. If the Steelers are behind, Pittsburgh already demonstrated that Jaylen Warren will be given opportunities in the passing game to play catch-up. Finally, like Pickens, Warren could see a marginal uptick as Kenny Pickett won’t have his normal possession receiver.
We’ll close with this over and hope for a very one-sided affair on Monday night.
Browns vs. Steelers Parlay Odds
- Cleveland Browns ML
- Nick Chubb Over 83.5 Rushing Yards
- George Pickens Over 42.5 Receiving Yards
- Jaylen Warren Over 12.5 Receiving Yards
Here is a look at what ParlayIQ suggests for a ticket price on Monday night:
Here is a look at our ticket on FanDuel Sportsbook:
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Parlay Odds: +888
Risk: 1/2 unit to win 4.44 units
Good luck with all of your bets and plays this evening. Share your parlays with me on Twitter. First touchdown scorers? Touchdowns? DFS lineups? Player props? Thanks for reading.